BLOG OF ADAM HARTUNG
Ignominious Ends- Sears and Malls
Like newspapers before them, retail stores are now experiencing the overwhelming power of a trend whose time has come. The retail industry was built on consumer mobility- buyers came to stores. Consumers traded time for convenience and when mobility was abruptly disrupted, retail paid the price.
Cost of Ignoring Trends- Facebook’s Fiasco
Protests are strong signals of trends. Missing this most obvious change in consumer sentiment can have severe consequences. Genuine action is needed, not just virtue signalling.
Scenario Planning post Pandemic – What About the Dollar?
Due to policy and the growing deficit spending driven by the pandemic, the US Dollar could dramatically weaken against foreign currencies. One scenario has the Chinese Yuan displacing the Dollar. Do you have a plan in place to prepare your business?
Microsoft: Value Creation Is About New Markets and Growth – Not Defending Your Base
Why does it take so long for Boards of Directors to overcome the inertia of bad decisions? Boards need to assure that CEOs and management are tracking trends, not pet projects.
Do You Grow with Market Shifts – or Slowly Lose Relevancy? The Advertising Story
Internet advertising growth tripled in each of the last two decades. It’s the very definition of a market disruption. Yet, many companies didn’t see the trend. Why?
The Remarkable, Predictable Decline of TV
In 2012, I wrote a post, “The Day TV Died”. The trends were visible- Netflix was poised to explode and was the stock to own. What’s your ad plan today?
Mighty Oaks from Tiny Acorns Grow – Beyond Meat
Under the noses of the established food companies, plant based meat innovators jumped into the market. Firms like Beyond Meat swiftly built brands and are riding the trends driving plant based meat products.
Plan for the Unseen Disruptions to Your Business…Now.
Market disruptions first appear as potential threats: a new product here, a start-up there, a bit of research further along. How do you find them? Implement a threat identification and monitoring system and be aware!
Find Opportunities Out of the Box
Opportunity assessments are the most powerful way to generate growth. Examining the full value chain can provide more insights into trends than customer surveys alone. Companies can get ahead of competition with trends.
Now’s The Time To Buy FAANG Stocks
Since 2012, I’ve been a huge fan of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google. And they have dramatically outperformed the market. In the last few weeks their values have fallen dramatically, and I’ve heard grumblings that these are no longer the stocks to own. I...
The Bitcoin Fad – Successfully Understanding Trends vs Fads
Bitcoin value continues to decline, as I predicted in Aug 2017 because it has all the signs of being a fad. Many thought Bitcoin was “the next big thing” and maybe it will be in the future, but for now investors have stopped celebrating with “Macarena”.
Facebook Launches “Portal” – Why You Want to Pay Attention
Facebook’s latest innovation, Portal, integrates with Alexa, Instagram, and other technologies to enhance personal network communications. The stock of Facebook is well off its recent high so could this be an attempt to rebuild its reputation as an innovator? A closer look at Portal shows it has the potential to be a social media disruptor.
New ebook from Adam Hartung on Facebook
In the recently published, "Facebook- The Making of a Great Company", Adam Hartung analyzes the rise of Facebook and its impact on the financial community, business marketing and innovation. Adam's posts over the years have predicted key milestones in Facebook's...
Reports of Facebook’s Death Are Greatly Exaggerated (Paraphrasing Mark Twain)
Adam Hartung has analyzed Facebook extensively for years and has projected the company’s growth, innovation and path to disruption. Here are his most recent posts on Facebook and an outlook.
Medical Tourism TREND – or How to Make a Fortune From US Health Care Stupidity
US Medical costs keep rising, the population keeps aging, and cost of insurance is prohibitive. But people need to recover from illness and get back to wellness. Needs plus Trends equals opportunities… for medical industries in other countries.
Apple’s Installed Base – Foundation for Success, or Curse?
The last few quarters sales growth has not been as good for Apple as it once was. The iPhone X didn’t sell as fast as they hoped, and while the Apple Watch outsells the entire Swiss watch industry it does not generate the volumes of an iPhone. And other new products...
Harley Davidson Has Far Worse Problems Than President Trump or EU Tariffs
Harley Davidson’s response to avoid EU tariffs is to build a plant in Europe- where competition is tougher than in the US. Seems a bit too late for this aging brand that’s been bailed out, lost market share for years and is facing changing demand.
GE Kicked Off the Dow (DJIA) – The Worst Board of Directors in America
GE’s payout ratio has climbed since 2014, propping up the share price. In 2018, GE was paying out more than earnings. Why didn’t GE re-invest in its own businesses? Perhaps the Board didn’t understand trends and innovation. Anyone can sell off assets but they proved it’s hard to choose a good CEO.
How Ants Kill Elephants – The Amazon.com, Sears & Walmart Story
Small companies operate in the niches disregarded by larger firms. It’s in these fringe markets where trends begin, often unnoticed, until its too late to react. Is your firm watching these market segments?
Why You Want To Own Facebook – And Big Investors Have To
Facebook is following the Amazon playbook on market domination through innovation.