BLOG OF ADAM HARTUNG
IBM’s Demise – Why You Can Do MUCH Better
IBM fell into the Growth Stall trap. As the competition increased and market demand shifted, revenues fell. This led to a vicious cycle of cost cutting and diminished innovation.
The End of Trumpism
Trumps policies were doomed to fail long term because they resisted major global trends. The best path forward for any country is to embrace these trends and use them to build an advantage.
The Decline and Fall of Chicago and Illinois
Chicago and the state of Illinois are collapsing due to decades of fiscal mismanagement and political dealing. This trend was bright as day but was, as they say in Chi-town, “the can was kicked down the road” for the next guy to deal with.
Trends Drive Value- Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft
Every industrial “era” is based in technology innovation. Those innovations are valued by investors and are reflected in the stock market. Watch carefully for the trends.
Why Uber’s Autonomous Car Project Flopped
Uber just spun off its autonomous car project into a new company called, “Aurora”. Ok, but why did Uber invest in this tech in the first place? It was heralded as a good tech spend, but it was really just a backward integration for a ride share company.
Disney and Uber – Using Trends To Great Success
Gas prices and demand are down for 2020. This is an acceleration of the trend away from combustion engines…and toward EVs.
How Tesla Killed Exxon’s Valuation – Will You See Threats Coming?
Gas prices and demand are down for 2020. This is an acceleration of the trend away from combustion engines…and toward EVs.
DJIA Changes – Interesting, Yet Meaningless
Component companies of the Dow Jones average were changed again. What does it really matter to investors?
California Legislators – Not Even You Can Stop a Trend
Recently, the California legislature passed Assembly Bill, AB5 “The Gig Economy Law.” It redefined “employee” to try to reduce “contract workers.” It forces those who pay for work to cover additional costs of “benefits”. CA AB5 attempts to set back the advancement of the Gig Economy 30+ years by forcing the private sector into an obsolete industrial model. Uber and Lyft could be the first casualties in this battle, but CA consumers will pay the price.
WILL KODAK SUCCESSFULLY PIVOT INTO PHARMACEUTICALS? I DOUBT IT.
Strategic pivots can lead to success for agile companies. But, the pivot must be pointed at an unmet consumer need to increase growth.
Electric Cars are Not a Fad, and They Matter
Electric cars are the ideal example of how small, fringe competitors can disrupt established markets. Especially with the disruption happening outside a market known for its innovations.
Ignominious Ends- Sears and Malls
Like newspapers before them, retail stores are now experiencing the overwhelming power of a trend whose time has come. The retail industry was built on consumer mobility- buyers came to stores. Consumers traded time for convenience and when mobility was abruptly disrupted, retail paid the price.
Cost of Ignoring Trends- Facebook’s Fiasco
Protests are strong signals of trends. Missing this most obvious change in consumer sentiment can have severe consequences. Genuine action is needed, not just virtue signalling.
Scenario Planning post Pandemic – What About the Dollar?
Due to policy and the growing deficit spending driven by the pandemic, the US Dollar could dramatically weaken against foreign currencies. One scenario has the Chinese Yuan displacing the Dollar. Do you have a plan in place to prepare your business?
Microsoft: Value Creation Is About New Markets and Growth – Not Defending Your Base
Why does it take so long for Boards of Directors to overcome the inertia of bad decisions? Boards need to assure that CEOs and management are tracking trends, not pet projects.
Do You Grow with Market Shifts – or Slowly Lose Relevancy? The Advertising Story
Internet advertising growth tripled in each of the last two decades. It’s the very definition of a market disruption. Yet, many companies didn’t see the trend. Why?
The Remarkable, Predictable Decline of TV
In 2012, I wrote a post, “The Day TV Died”. The trends were visible- Netflix was poised to explode and was the stock to own. What’s your ad plan today?
Mighty Oaks from Tiny Acorns Grow – Beyond Meat
Under the noses of the established food companies, plant based meat innovators jumped into the market. Firms like Beyond Meat swiftly built brands and are riding the trends driving plant based meat products.
Plan for the Unseen Disruptions to Your Business…Now.
Market disruptions first appear as potential threats: a new product here, a start-up there, a bit of research further along. How do you find them? Implement a threat identification and monitoring system and be aware!
Find Opportunities Out of the Box
Opportunity assessments are the most powerful way to generate growth. Examining the full value chain can provide more insights into trends than customer surveys alone. Companies can get ahead of competition with trends.
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