BLOG OF ADAM HARTUNG
Reports of Facebook’s Death Are Greatly Exaggerated (Paraphrasing Mark Twain)
Adam Hartung has analyzed Facebook extensively for years and has projected the company’s growth, innovation and path to disruption. Here are his most recent posts on Facebook and an outlook.
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Medical Tourism TREND – or How to Make a Fortune From US Health Care Stupidity
US Medical costs keep rising, the population keeps aging, and cost of insurance is prohibitive. But people need to recover from illness and get back to wellness. Needs plus Trends equals opportunities… for medical industries in other countries.
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Apple’s Installed Base – Foundation for Success, or Curse?
The last few quarters sales growth has not been as good for Apple as it once was. The iPhone X didn’t sell as fast as they hoped, and while the Apple Watch outsells the entire Swiss watch industry it does not generate the volumes of an iPhone. And other new products...
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Harley Davidson Has Far Worse Problems Than President Trump or EU Tariffs
Harley Davidson’s response to avoid EU tariffs is to build a plant in Europe- where competition is tougher than in the US. Seems a bit too late for this aging brand that’s been bailed out, lost market share for years and is facing changing demand.
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GE Kicked Off the Dow (DJIA) – The Worst Board of Directors in America
GE’s payout ratio has climbed since 2014, propping up the share price. In 2018, GE was paying out more than earnings. Why didn’t GE re-invest in its own businesses? Perhaps the Board didn’t understand trends and innovation. Anyone can sell off assets but they proved it’s hard to choose a good CEO.
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How Ants Kill Elephants – The Amazon.com, Sears & Walmart Story
Small companies operate in the niches disregarded by larger firms. It’s in these fringe markets where trends begin, often unnoticed, until its too late to react. Is your firm watching these market segments?
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Why You Want To Own Facebook – And Big Investors Have To
Facebook is following the Amazon playbook on market domination through innovation.
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Amazon Alexa Is Becoming Ubiquitous – And That’s an Apple Threat
Apple’s Siri is 7 years old, but the neighbor kids down the street Alexa and Cortana are only 4 years old but growing up much faster. Alexa may soon be the popular kid on the block.
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Why Innovative Value Propositions Are Killed By Misguided Value Delivery Implementation
Start-ups and marketing development teams can create great ideas. But that’s just halfway to success. Implement well to win.
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Netflix – Delivering Your Value Proposition Is More Successful Than Optimizing Your Value Delivery System
To innovate for successful growth, focus on your Value Proposition instead of your Value Delivery System.
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Why “Telltale Signs” point badly for Walmart. Keep Buying Amazon.
E-commerce continues to be a difficult compromise for brick-and-mortar retail companies like Walmart. The e-commerce segment, led by Amazon, has learned how to provide a comfortable and intuitive experience for online buyers. Walmart must wrestle with trends.
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The Decline of CDs and PCs – Trends Affect Us All More Than We Think
Streaming music replaced music on CD in about 10 years. Most people saw the trend. CDs are recycled as clocks. Today, laptops and the operating systems are undergoing a similar disruption. Is your portfolio up-to-date?
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United Airlines – How Bad Strategy Created a Culture That Kills Puppies
United Airlines’ strategy has lost sight of customer needs as it chases cost reductions. This has created a culture of indifference or even disregard for customers. Most other airlines have either led the way or followed suit. Is this the way to build value? or invite re-regulation?
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Warren Buffett Is Loading Up On Apple – Why You Should be Wary
In February, Berkshire Hathaway revealed it had dumped its IBM position. Good riddance to a stock that has gone down for 5 years while the S&P went up! What did Buffett do with the money? He loaded up on Apple – making that high-flyer Berkshire’s #1 holding. So,...
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Walmart’s Surprising Tumble – Analysts Never Learn, Will You?
On February 20, 2018 Walmart’s stock had its biggest price drop ever. And the second biggest percentage decline ever. Even though same store sales improved, investors sold off the stock in droves. And after a pretty healthy recent valuation run-up. What happened?...
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Warren Buffett’s Painful IBM Lesson – Have You Learned It?
You can’t recover from a Growth Stall using creative financing. Are some of your investments being propped up with share re-purchases? CEOs are expected to return part of the expected tax savings to shareholders. But, long term success requires investment in innovation as IBM is learning.
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Reshaping the Power Grid – The Tesla Way
What do electric cars and solar panels have in common? Disruption based on trends. Tesla understands product, distribution and technology disruption. Tesla may soon be delivering the sun to neighborhoods like yours.
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Netflix – Demonstrating Why Good Strategy Matters
Netflix based its strategy on the trends toward increasing broadband speed and streaming content. Then created its own content to fill the pipeline. Investors who saw the same trends had big returns. Look at your investments- what trends are those companies following?
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Are You Adaptable Like Facebook?
Snapchat launched innovative ideas for photo and video sharing, but the advantage did not take long. Bigger companies were attracted to the new segments, attacking Snapchat’s position. Are you ready to act on new ideas in your customer base?
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Japan Demographics- A “Trend Bomb”
Demographic trends are the most obvious for business to track. Yet, marketers still fail to incorporate these trends into growth plans till it’s too late. Ted Levitt saw that believing business expansion is assured by population growth was part of Marketing Myopia in 1960. Here’s how to see those trends.
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