BLOG OF ADAM HARTUNG
Rather fail than change
What is success? We often think of it as accomplishing goals. If we set a goal, and achieve it, we succeeded. If however we repetitively don't achieve goals that leads to failure. So, you would think that managers would do the things that would...
It probably won’t work
Last week BusinessWeek reported on how Dell was making a strong play to catch Apple's iTunes in the digital music marketplace (read article here). On the surface, it sounds like a good set of tactics that might work. But it probably won't. Apple (see chart...
Olympic Change
The Phoenix Principle applies not only to companies, but industries and even whole economies. There is no doubt countries Lock-in on a market approach, and then Defend & Extend it. And these Locked-in countries become victims of market shifts and new...
Sliding into the Whirlpool
"Things will work out in the end." "It's always darkest just before the dawn." These were a couple of phrases my mother used to say. To her, just have faith and everything would work out. Raised in Oklahoma during the Great...
Staying in the Rapids
Some businesses get in the Rapids by picking a fast growing market and then trying to keep up with exploding demand. Such as PC manufacturers in the 1980s and laptop manufacturers in the 1990s. Or internet companies in the late 1990s. The market explosion...
How does Yang overcome Ying?
We all know success. At some time, we've been in the winning position - possibly as an individual, but most likely as part of a team. When we taste success, we look hard at what got us that great flavor and we hold that memory closely. We all want to...
fait accompli
If you don't control your destiny, who does? Most Americans are especially proud of their independence, because it gives them the strong sense that their destiny is up to them. While everyone understands the role of luck and timing, those who also...
Myth of Perpetuity
We all know we're going to die. But we don't usually think about it as we live each day. We pretty much run our lives the same until we are exposed to a new threat, like a particularly dangerous intersection or a tainted food, and then we change our...
Paranoia?
Fear is a good motivator. But when the fear goes beyond that necessary for protection, it can become paranoia. While it's not a word we like to think applies to us, in Defend & Extend organizations paranoia is fairly common. Defending the Success...
Doha what?
I talk a lot about company Success Formulas. They are easy for us to see, and easy to discuss. But did you know that economies have Success Formulas as well? Countries, and the people who run them, have Success Formulas and Lock-in which can have a huge...
Sucker move
The headline at Marketwatch.com this evening read "Starbucks Catches Steam" (link to frontpage at 7:30pm eastern on 7/30/08) The article (read article here) goes on to be very bullish sounding about Starbucks. "Shares turned higher" "up...
Scenarios can breed growth
Another big loss was announced at Ford (chart here) today (read article here). After announcing a $9billion loss, the CEO said he was looking to convert some truck plants to make hybrid cars. And the company is considering bringing some of its high-mileage...
Who’s responsible?
Everyone knows newspaper ad revenues are down dramatically. But this trend didn't happen overnight. Ad revenues started slumping way back in 2001. At the time most management blamed the recession. Then lack of recovery was blamed on a jobless...
Be wary of analysts and hero CEOs
Apple Computer company (see chart here) has been rather remarkable. After eschewing the Newton and other products it Locked-in on the Macintosh - and almost failed. After years of declining PC market share and no new products Steve Jobs returned - and with...
Staying in the Rapids
Yesterday IBM (chart here) announced it's most recent quarterly results (read here). The good news was revenue climbed 13% and income from continuing operations rose 22%. This ability to stay in the Rapids is pretty amazing, given that a 10% growth at IBM...
Other side of the coin
I regularly beat the stuffing out of organizations for Defending & Extending their Lock-in. Low growth and poor results have demonstrated for these companies that market shifts are pushing their Success Formula toward obsolescence. They need to Disrupt...
Using symbols instead of results
The headline in today's Chicago Tribune trumpeted the headquarters move of MillerCoors to Chicago. In exchange for $20million in aid, about 300-400 headquarters jobs will move to Chicago. The article goes on to wax eloquently about how Chicago is a...
Finding the Rapids, or the Whirlpool
Readers of this blog know my lifecycle references. We start out in the Wellspring of ideas. To be successful we have to find the Rapids of high growth. In the Rapids life is beautiful as we make money and everyone wants to give us more. ...
A gale force wind
Yesterday I blogged about reading telltales. Catching small bits of information that can help you predict a company's behavior and longevity. But sometimes we don't need a telltale - because the signs are as obvious as a gale force wind. That...
Reading the Telltale Signs
I'm a land-bound midwesterner, and know next to nothing about sailing. But someone once explained to me that sailors tie ribbons to their sails and ropes. They call these "telltales". And then good sailors pay attention to the behavior of...
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