Microsoft’s Dismal Future

"Microsoft's Dismal Future" is the title of my most recent column on Forbes.com In it I compare Microsoft with such formerly great, but now struggling, companies as Xerox and Kodak.  Looking at all the Lock-in at Microsoft, Balmer's complete unwillingness to Disrupt traditional Lock-ins, and the total lack of White Space for new market projects – Microsoft is a very likely candidate to follow Silicon Graphics. Sun Microsystems, DEC and a host of other formerly great technology companies into the history books.  And it could well happen in less than a decade.  Don't forget, in 2000 Sun was worth $200billion – and now the company no longer exists!

If I gave you $1,000 and told you keeping it required you invest it all in Microsoft or Apple, which would you pick?  For followers of this blog, there can be only one answer – it has to be Apple.  While Microsoft has a great past, it has not been using White Space to exploit technology developments in new markets.  All go-to-market projects have been around Defending & Extending the traditional PC market.  With products like Vista, OS 7 and now Office 10.  But reality is that all of us are using PCs a lot less these days.  Increasingly we use smart mobile devices to get out work done – eschewing even the laptop – much less the desktop machine.  Increasingly we are happy with PDF files and HTML text – not needing elaborate Excel Spreadsheets, or Word documents or flashy Powerpoint files.

Meanwhile Apple is a major participant in the new markets being developed!  It's iPhone is a leader in smartphones, where its mere 5% market share has allowed the company to sell 2 billion downloaded applications in the first 18 months!  And although digital music is becoming the norm as CDs disappear, iTunes maintains a very healthy 70% market share of digital music downloads.  And Apple is moving forward into digital publishing with the iPad launch, as well as hundreds of new applications for low-cost but highly functional tablets (a market Microsoft pioneered but exited.)

Many people invest by looking in the rear view mirror.  But Microsoft increasingly looks like a "has been" story.  Looking out the windshield, it's hard to place Microsoft on the future horizon.  Give the Forbes article a read and let me know what you think!

Listening to Competition – Healthcare

Amidst the brouhaha over health care legislation, Harvard Business Review has produced a report "Megatrends in Global Health Care."  One interesting statistic is that medical tourism – that's when someone leaves the USA to have a procedure like surgery performed in a foreign country – has risen from 750,000 in 2007 (more than you would have guessed, I bet) to about 1.2million.  Yep, people are going outside the USA for health care.

While everybody in the USA is asking "what do you want" for health care, there is a marketplace.  To recognize this you have to overcome myopia and think bigger than the U.S.  Anyone can have health procedures performed in Germany, France, Canada, Japan, Thailand, Mexico, Brazil, India – etc.  Of course you have to pay for it.  But in medical tourism instances, it is cheaper to have the care provided offshore, often with extensive after-event recovery assistance, rather than in the USA.  Even if you have insurance (which may have declined to cover the procedure because it is so expensive domestically).

While everyone is arguing about healthcare, some violently, it will be the marketplace that will determine what health care we get and how much it will costPeople want good service at a good price, and they don't like "middle men" such as insurers or regulators, making the trade-offs for them.  They want options, and they want to know likely expectations, and they want to know the actual cost as well as the therapy cost, medicine cost and impact on work, income and life.  Then they want to make an informed decision.

The beauty of medical tourism is it provides a marketplace mechanism for those things to happen.  America has great health care, but it is wildly expensive.  Multiples of the cost in other countries. If you are uninsured, either you don't' get complete health care or you want someone to jump in and bail you out (like a government agency).  If you are insured, quite simply your healthcare is subsidized, and it is dictated to you by the terms of the insurance company – not really much different than a government program just a "privatized" bureaucratic group making the decision.  You aren't the payor, someone else is, so as much as you want to be the "customer" you really aren't.  In America the golden rule of health care applies "he who pays the gold gets to make the rules" and that would be your payor (which is either your insurance company – with guidelines from your employer – or medicare with government guidelines). 

But with medical tourism, you are the customer.  Nobody between you and the doctor, facility or other provider.  You get to hear options, and make decisions.  Gee, what an interesting approach.  This is now competition for the extremely expensive American health care industry.  If you don't like your drugs, go buy them in Mexico or Canada – why let a bureaucrat scare you into paying 5x or 15x more?  If you want a procedure, go get it Paris or Peking.  If you need extended therapy, do it at a spa in Thailand.  And all of this done at a price that is a fraction of doing it in the USA.  Smart providers will soon have to start paying attention, and find ways to compete!

A lot of people want to affix blame for the cost of American health care.  As long as there's no marketplace, then I guess blame fixing is what people like to do.  But if we instead focus on the competition we can see how rapidly things will change.  When a hospital is losing customers to Hyderabad, or a facility in Florence, how long will it keep tinkering with an approach that costs too much and is losing customers?  Real change  happens when people realize that they can fail if they don't change their old Success Formula.

The best thing about medical tourism is it creates a very real option, and very real competitionIf you aren't thinking about it, you should.  You would be surprised what you can have done, and at what quality, and the cost.  While you don't want to run to Damascus to see your doctor for a sinus infection, when it's time for a knee replacement Nice might just be the place to go.  Give it some thought, because your behavior will speak a lot louder than your words when it comes to creating real change in American health care provision and cost.

“Enterprise Customer” risk – RIM Blackberry and Apple iPhone

The second step of The Phoenix Principle is "Obsess about Competitors."  This doesn't rile people up much.  But when I tell them "I want you to dramatically cut the time you talk to and listen to customers – and invest that investigating competitors" then LOTS of people get riled up.  When I wrote a Forbes column on the topic ("Listen to Competitors – Not Customers") I was inundated with comments – most of them not too kind.  People were upset that I would attack the widely held notion that you can't spend enough time listening to customers.

There are lots of examples of companies led down the primrose path to disaster by listening to customers.  One of my favorites is that IBM got out of the PC business by the latter half of the 1980s because their customers – data center managers – told them that they could see no need for PCs and the product was a waste of resources.  IBM needed to renew its focus on data center (real computing!) needs and quit playing with that toy! 

We have another great example emerging right now in mobile devices. RIM (Research in Motion) has focused on the "enterprise marketplace" by selling hard to corporations that they should have Blackberry servers and Blackberry corporate applications which can be supported well and have the "right kind" of security and features for a typical "enterprise" IT department.  Because of this, RIM has really put all of its money into supporting "enterprise" customers, doing what they want.  But meanwhile, Apple has been busy changing the game – by giving the market what it wants and targeting the destruction of Palm rather than doing what the "enterprise customers" have asked for.

Apple v RIM apps
Source: Silicon Alley Insider

RIM's focus on its "core customer" the "enterprise customer" has been intended to make sure the Blackberry Defends & Extends its leadership position.  But that has not yielded many apps.  Even Adroid has 6x the RIM apps (and a likely launch an attack on "enterprise customers" soon.) Meanwhile, by focusing on the marketplace, and discovering unmet and underserved needs in order to wipe out Palm, Apple has developed 34X the number of RIM apps.

Alpple V RIM market share march 2010
Source:  Silicon Alley Insider

As we can see, this difference in applications has let Apple blow right by Palm – and almost catch RIM.  And of course, that will now be the next market Apple will attack.  Just like the PC attacked the old data center, the iPhone (and iPad) and all its users will drive these products into every day business useWhile RIM was "listening to its customer" it missed a major change in the marketplace.  The requirement for multiple apps.  While RIM was attempting to Defend & Extend its market position – and probably bragging about holding share while Palm was getting creamed – it was letting Apple create the market shift that is soon going to overtake RIM and Blackberry.  Don't forget, you can obtain a Blackberry from almost any network provider – so what will happen when the iPhone and iPad become move beyond limited distribution to all network providers?

This customer-centric problem is most pronounced in "enterprise" solutions.  Like IBM, which was the #1 "enterprise" vendor for corporate computing.  The notion of selling to the "enterprise" connotes big sales, with big revenues to big companies – and it is assumed big profits will result.  Yet, what really happens is that often supporting the "enterprise" marketplace ends up being a never ending effort to make small improvements to existing products in order to help the "core customer" do one more small thing – making their life easy.  While the "enterprise" vendor is busy with this work, he ends up Defending & Extending his "base" product for his "base" customers – and the customers are trying to Defend & Extend their historical investment.  But eventually these "enterprise" customers shift – usually very fast.

Meanwhile Apple is in the marketplace, paying all kinds of attention to the weaknesses of competitors and picking them off – one by one.  First Palm, then RIM.  We spend too much time listening to customers, letting them convince us to Defend & Extend our products and solutions.  We need to spend a LOT MORE time focused on competition – figuring out how to ruin their day while developing fringe opportunities that change the marketplace and drive growth!

What you don’t know can kill you – Facebook, Twitter, iPad, Kindle

Nancy Munro of Knowledgeshift.com posted a great blog "Technology was Blago's Enemy Again." Although many people watch The Apprentice, I'm not one.  Apparently the former governor of Illinois was a contestant, and when he was challenged to lead a project team his lack of technology skills got in the way of effectively doing the job. Although he's a smart lawyer and politician, his tool set had become outdated.  A competitive team leader who was very good at texting and other state-of-the-art technologies was able to best Governor Blagojevich's team, and the ex-governor was "fired" by Donald Trump from the show.

On the surface, this is a funny story.  But Nancy points out how it reflects the very real issues of using technology when competing.  All businesses compete every day.  Those that learn to use new technologies are able to get more done, faster and more effectively.  Those who fall into a routine of doing things the same way, and don't advance their tool set, run the risk of being knocked out of the competition.  Mr. Blagojevich's inability to use modern technology killed his chances of winning the competition.

Will you, or your business, go to any trade shows or conferences this year?  Probably.  But you'll limit attendance because you're still worried about financial performance.  How will you select where you go?  Probably by attending the ones most closely associated with your industry or business.  But think about it, are those the ones that will be most valuable?  You'll probably mostly hear what you already know, and reinforce your existing beliefs about the business.  Is that really an effective spend?

Instead, shouldn't you use the funds to learn about what you don't know?  Like how to be a world-class social marketer?  This is an amazingly fast growing area where early adopters are gaining new sales.  For example, Guy Kawasaki and the world's leaders in social marketing will be talking about how to get sales and profits from Twitter and Facebook at something called "The Smartbrief Social Media Success Summit." I'm not a shill for the conference (I'm not even speaking there), but this kind of event offers the very real opportunity of learning something you don't know – rather than reinforcing old Lock-ins and keeping you doing what you've always done.

Have you purchased a Kindle or iPad yet?  If not, how do you know what they can or can't do?  At SeekingAlpha.com "Thoughts on the iPad" offers one person's reflection on what the iPad does well, and doesn't, and where it might evolve – as well as how it compares to the Kindle.  These devices are selling in the millions – so are you and your business thinking about how to use one to help sell more products or make more money?  Yahoo and Google are both launching ad models for iPad (see Mediapost.com "Yahoo Readies Launch of Online Advertising Model"). Are you considering using this media to reach new customers?  Have you considered how one of these products embedded in what you sell might offer you a competitive advantage?  If you and your colleagues haven't tried one, experimented, how would you know?

Our businesses rarely get into trouble from something we know well.  It's what we don't know, what we ignore, that gets us in trouble.  Like Craigslist.com wiping out newspaper classified ads.  The newspapers didn't even see it coming.  On the other hand, if they had investigated and used Craigslist they could have prepared, and maybe even developed a competitive on-line product to grow new revenues! 

It's incumbent upon us to constantly expand into new markets.  We have to constantly keep White Space alive where we use resources to experiment in areas outside traditional permission.  It's easy to keep throwing all our resources into what we know, but in the end, it's what we don't know that will knock us out of the game – like poor Blago.

Lost in the Swamp – Publishing – Random House, Tribune Corporation, News Corp.

Do you read more today, or less than you did 10 years ago?  For most of us, the answer is more.  Our ever present access to email and texting means we watch less TV, and pick up more from reading.  Of course, we read a lot less paper than we used to – books are falling more out of favor every year – and the plight of newspapers and magazines is rocky.  For traditional book publishers like Random House, Pearson, et.al. as well as periodical publishers like Tribune Corporation or News Corp. there is a lot of concern about survivability.  But it's not because we're reading less.  It's because the market has shifted, and people are reading differently.

What should a publisher focus upon?  Words.  Content.  A recent Harvard Business School web discussion "HBS Cases: iPads, Kindles, and the Close of a chapter in Book Publishing" highlights that the role of a publisher is to find really good stuff that people want to read.  The author, former CEO of Random House, points out that a publisher's job is to edit content into the format which makes it easiest to understand and digest.  A good publisher aids us in our seeking knowledge, or enjoyment.  But most publishers have completely lost sight of that goal, instead focusing on printing.  Books, magazines and newspapers.  Keep the presses busy, and the old supply chain filled.

In the business lifecycle we start with the Wellspring of ideas.  When something catches hold, we enter the Rapids of growth.  That's great, because growth is a fun place to be.  But when markets start shifting then things go flat.  We think slowness is our fault, so we work harder at what we've always done – but the cause is a market shift so the hard work makes little difference.  We drift into the Swamp, where we are so overwhelmed with all the problems from no to negative growth that we forget what our original purpose was (we get so busy fighting alligators and killing mosquitoes that we forget the mission was to drain the swamp!)  Eventually resources are depleted and we slide into the Whirlpool of failure.

Publishers are now in the Swamp.  Cutting costs, focusing on "big deals" (like bidding wars to publish a book by a celebrity like Sarah Palin), and spending all kinds of time dealing with the supply chain.  As the HBS article explains, while iPad and Kindle represent an opportunity for incremental growth – and new revenue – by feeding people content when they want it where they want it and how they want it – the publishers are in a pitched battle to slow electronic publishing.  The publishers are trying to Defend & Extend their old process of printing, and distributing, paper.  They want to defend their old Success Formula.  And in doing so, they've completely lost sight of the opportunity digital publishing offers!

A paper published on the University of Missouri web site "What Happens When Newspapers Cut Back on Marketing Investments? An Empirical Analysis" is extremely enlightening.  With ad spending down, in an effort to "save" the business, they are cutting editorial. Yet, this is creating a vicious cycle of decline (a Whirlpool is emerging.)

  1. Newsroom cuts are the most costly on revenue.  More than cutting sales or distribution, cutting content led to the greatest loss.  Duh!  Of course.  Readers are there for content – not for ads or distribution!  Talk about forgetting your purpose.
  2. The bigger the cuts, the impact on revenues gets progressively worse!  Remember what I said about creating a whirlpool?  When you cut what people want, you hasten demise.
  3. Newsroom cuts are most costly on profit.  Not only does revenue decline, but of all cost cuts the content cutting not only takes away readers – but quickly advertisers as well.  Advertisers depend on content to draw people to their ads.  Otherwise all you have is an ad tabloid – remember? 

My book publisher is Pearson.  Eighteen months ago I proposed that we take Create Marketplace Disruption and turn it into 16 short stand-alone mini-books.  People could then buy just part of the book, as it suits their needs.  Sell these for $1 or $2 each strictly as electronic downloads.  That idea flew about as far as the famed dodo.  Financial Times Press sells books I was reminded.  No interest in this other wacky idea I proposed. 

But I'm confident that for most of you, the idea of nice short readings – like say a blog – is a lot more appealing than digesting a 225 page bookPeople don't want less words, they just want things differently.  That's why I do public speaking and workshops – because many of us don't want all the detail of the book and appreciate receiving the content in another format.

So, do you know what direction your market is headed?  Are you moving forward to meet emerging needs and preferences?  Or are you trying to defend & extend the way you've historically done business?  For most publishers, the current direction spells disaster – failure.  Learn from their mistakes, Disrupt your approach and find some White Space to learn how you can make money and grow!

Live or Die on Transitions – Tivo, Blockbuster, SGI, DEC, Palm, Cisco

Recently SeekingAlpha.com ran the article "Time for Tivo to say Ta Ta."  The author (a professor) took the point of view that Tivo had filled a need, but now there were ample new options – such as on-line downloads – making Tivo obsolete.  As a result, the company should fold up its tent and let the employees move on.

I was struck, because the good professor did not seem to think it might be possible for Tivo to change its business model and move into the other growing opportunities while simultaneously maintaining the traditional Tivo set-top business until the market figures out what customers really want.  That sort of predicting future markets is dangerous for 2 reasons:

  1. the inherent assumption that Tivo can be in only one market is flawed.  There is nothing stopping Tivo from participating in the marketplace robustly with mutliple solution offerings.  It can even cannibalize its own "base" revenues if the market shifts into other solutions.  Tivo could remain top of the market – regardless of what solution dominates
  2. predicting future markets is a fools game.  The good professor may guess some of these futurist positions right, but he's sure to get many wrong.  Any business that bets its product development or investments on future predictions is destined to eventually get it wrong – and possibly destroy itself.  Good leaders use scenarios to realize there are multiple possibilities, and then participate in several of them in order to be assured of growth.

Fast Company points out in "Avoiding Corporate Death Spirals in a Sea of Change" that all companies hoping to remain long-lived MUST learn to transition with shifting markets.  The article parallels this blog in discussing failures at Blockbuster Video, Silicon Graphics, Digital Equipment – and more recently dramatic share declines in Palm.  All are attributed to management Lock-in on early wins, then trying to Defend & Extend the early Success Formula too long.  Market transitions killed them.  The article goes on to point out that Cisco Systems, a company held up as an example of Phoenix Principle Management here, has succeeded and grown principally because it has learned how to adjust to market shifts.

No company needs to give up.  But all companies that want to survive HAVE to learn to manage market transitions.  There is no other choice.  Shift happens.

Value goes to growth – Apple, Microsoft, Sears/Kmart

Apple now has a market cap of $210BMicrosoft has a market cap of about $260B.  To traditionalists, this must seem contradictory.  Apple has fought its way into new markets, and has domination in none (except maybe the narrowly defined individual music download business).  Microsoft has near monopolistic market presence in personal computer operating systems and office software. According to modern business theory from business schools, and the output of books such as Business Strategy by Michael Porter, the monopolist company has entry barriers protecting its return – and thus the ability to almost print unlimited profit.  Yet this has not happened.

At SeekingAlpha.com "Apple versus Microsoft: The Value Gap is Closing" the case is made that the value difference is all due to growth.  Apple's business for music devices and content is growing – quickly.  Its business for mobile devices and mobile device applications is also growing very fast.  Those offer substantial positive cash flow today, as well as dramatic cash flow growth in the future.  So much so that many analysts wonder what Apple will do with all that money.   And that doesn't even count the iPad sales which have exceeded expectations – before even available to ship.  And businesses are starting to build applications for the iPad, as explained in the BusinessWeek article "Businesses want Apple's iPad, too."

On the other hand, the demand for PCs is sluggish – at best.  People increasingly leave their laptop at home for extended time while the use their mobile device instead.  But Microsoft is stuck in a loop of upgrade development and launch.  But because of the market shift, these investments are yielding less and less return.  Complexity cost is going up, and profits are going down, and growth is dropping precipitously.  Products in music, mobile phones and advertising have all lost significant share to Apple, Google and others as attention has remained on the "core" business.  So even though current cash flow is strong, value has gone absolutely nowhere for several years, and there's precious reason to think it will go up.

When you lose growth, even if you prop up profits with draconian cost cutting and inventory sales, you lose value.  Just look at Sears/KMart.  Investors were really excited when Mr. Lampert used his takeover of KMart to acquire Sears.  Predictions flew that he would get Sears growing again, while simultaneously monetizing the huge real estate portfolio.  But as detailed in Chicago Tribune "Sears and KMart Still Standing, but Market Share Dwindles," value has declined.  Mr. Lampert has proven very good at whacking cost.  But when it comes to growing revenue – something that will drive ongoing growth in cash flow for a decade or more, he's shown nothing.  You can't cost cut your way to long term success.

Pitching vs. listening – General Motors (GM) and Segway

General Motors and Segway have teamed up to do a new product launch.  The new product is described at Freep.com in "GM, Partner to unveil 2-seater" and is called the EN-V.  And there's almost no hope it will succeed.  Too bad, because both companies desperately need a winner.  But the process they used to develop and launch this product was all wrong – and it would be a miracle if the arrow hits a bulls-eye.

Segway is the long-running story of a company with what looks like a great idea, but it never takes off.  The original Segway seemed really neat.  But people struggled to figure out why they would buy one.  There is walking, there are bicycles, there are motorcycles and there are cars.  Segway never defined who was under-served, or unserved, and therefore had a real need to use their new product.  Segway management did a great job of public relations, because we all saw them on TV, in the news, and learned the name.  But the product was developed internally, not in response to a market need.  As a result, sales never materialized and Segway slipped into the business history file as another case study.

General Motors has no new product development process to create products for the future.  For decades GM has attempted to defend and extend its 1940's approach of designing updated products, and hoping people will keep buying.  It's been many years since GM launched a new product that people said "wow, that's just what I needed – and I wasn't even aware I needed that."

Now the two companies have teamed up to launch a 2 passenger Segway.  They have identified the use they think this fits, and they think they know a target.  But the problem is that this is just another "idea" designed and built without significant market input.  Instead of developing a scenario of the future with deep insight to what people will want, and then making that product, they have said "wouldn't this be neat – and can't we imagine who might buy?"  Interesting lab work, but unless they are very, very lucky the odds are greatest that people will think it's cute, but won't buy.  After all, with the plethora of current solutions across a huge price range from many competitors means nobody is living without transportation.  Why should potential customers inherently think this is a good idea.

Phoenix companies don't design products from inside the company outward.  Instead, they use market input to discover the unmet needs, and they fulfill them.  Especially when it's clear that competitors aren't jumping in to fulfill the need.  They intend to Disrupt the marketplace not by some splashy introduction and hoping people will switch, but rather by identifying the under-served customers and giving them a solution they didn't have.  Then the company learns, adapts and keeps pushing toward an ideal product that meets ever more needs.  From this initial small success the market grows.

Segway never understood this.  They don't define unmet needs, nor competitor inabilities – and thus they have great ideas but they fail to Disrupt the marketplace and their innovations have gone nowhere.  GM works hard to avoid innovations that might be market disruptions, instead offering sustaining innovations hoping to defend their old business model.

This new type of vehicle might have a chance of success.  But the only hope is for both companies to ignore the PR.  They should set up a White Space team, and give that team a year to really understand the unmet needs in the marketplace.  Then go back to the original design and make it very explicitly meaningful to people who have unmet needs. Launch small, make money, learn and grow. 

But given the approach this dynamic duo is taking, only luck will keep this from being another missed opportunity for both struggling companies.

Disrupt to avoid failure – Blockbuster

Blockbuster Video is in big trouble.  Most analysts think the company is going to file bankruptcy – unlikely to survive – with a mere $.30 stock price today.  Most of us remember when the weekly (or more frequent) trip to Blockbuster was part of every day life.  Like too many companies, Blockbuster was in the Rapids of growth when people wanted VHS tapes, then DVDs, to rent – and CDs to purchase.  We happily paid up several dollars for rentals and purchases.  Blockbuster grew quickly, and developed a powerful Success Formula that aided its growth.

As it is failing, I was startled by a Forbes.com article "What Blockbuster Video Can Teach Us About Economics." The author contends that this failure is a good thing, because it will release poorly used resources to new application.  Like most economists, his idea has good theory.  But I doubt the employees (who lose pay and benefits), shareholders, debt holders, bankers, landlords and suppliers – as well as the remaining customers, appreciate his point of view.  Theory won't help them deal with lost cash flow and expensive transition costs.

As the market shifted to mail order and on-line downloads, Blockbuster could have changed its Success Formula.  But instead the company remained Locked-in to doing what it has always done.  It will fail not because some force of nature willed its demise.  Rather, management made the bad decision to try Defending & Extending an out of date business model – rather than exploring market shifts, studying the competition intensely then using Disruptions and White Space to attack both Netflix and the on-line players.  Blockbuster's demise was not a given.  Rather, it was a result of following out of date management practices that now have serious costs to the businesses and people who are part of the Blockbuster eco-system.  I struggle to see how that is a good thing.

Fortunately, ManagementExcellence.com has a great article about ideas for attacking a threatened Success Formula in order to avoid becoming a Blockbuster entitled "Leadership Caffeine: 7 Odd Ideas to Help You Get Unstuck."  The author specifically takes aim at the comfort of Lock-in, and describes how managers can start to make Disruption part of everyday life:

  1. Fight the tyranny of Recurring Meetings
  2. Rotate Leadership
  3. Break the back of bad-habit brainstorming
  4. Do something completely off-task with your group
  5. Introduce your team to thought leaders and innovators
  6. Play games
  7. Change up your routine

Described in detail in the article, these are simple things anybody can do that begin to reveal how deeply we Lock-in, and expose the power of how we could behave differently.  If Blockbuster management had applied these ideas, the company would have been a lot more likely to return positively to society – rather than become another bankruptcy statistic.

Do you Facebook?

Let's see, would you rather spend $4million to reach 100 million people once – say via a Super Bowl ad – or spend almost nothing to reach 400million people every day?  Seems obvious economics.  Yet, how good is your Facebook presence?  Because that is the route to all those people who are on-line daily.

Most of today's business leaders grew up in the world of one-way advertising.  They watched TV, listened to the radio, read magazines and newspapers.  They were taught that to get a message into potential buyer heads, unfiltered by journalists, you had to advertise.  And for a long time, that was pretty true.  So they Locked-in on advertising and traditional PR as the route to name awareness and brand image.  But that was before the market shift which is dampening enthusiasm for traditional media while social media (broadly – including YouTube) is exploding.

Now your customers, and potential customers, are most likely using Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In and other social media every day.  And when they search on your products, they get Google responses from social media.  If you aren't putting some effort into the media, your image and message could be far removed from your goal! 

I remember talking to the CEO of Rolex in 1997.  Rolex did not have a web site.  His point of view was that as a luxury good, the internet was "below" his company's standards for communicating.  If there was to be a web site, he thought Tourneau – the world's largest retailer of luxury watches – would build it.  In 10 minutes I demonstrated to him how a simple search on "Rolex" turned up gobs of used dealers, unauthorized dealers, unauthorized repair shops, and outright fakes!  Several near the top of the list!  He was shocked.  His brand was rapidly being marginalized via a channel he had never even considered.  His worst fears about how the brand would be stolen, manipulated and value minimized were happening – and he was blithely ignorant.  Of course, Rolex got involved quickly to protect its brand.

So when was the last time you reviewed your brand, or image, or message across social media channels?  Are you possibly, blithely letting someone else manipulate your image?

At MediaPost.com in "Ensuring A Successful Corporate Facebook Presence" the authors outline a 4 step approach for doing a good job.  My biggest fear is that Lock-in to old approaches to sales and marketing mean too few companies are paying even a shred of interest in social media.  Over and over I hear marketers of large, established companies saying that social media access is blocked at work – and nothing is being done to leverage the channel!  In some instances, I've heard of Chief Marketing Officers making a "command decision" to avoid social media, because they can't "control" it. 

Secondly, the competition that is going to ruin your day just might do it via social media!  An existing company may have an image, advertising and effective PR.  So how would a Disruptive new competitor go after you?  Why, using the very low cost channel of social media.  We've all heard about disgruntled customers that have used songs, videos and other clever tools to spread extremely negative information like wildfire through a customer base.  Yet, by ignoring the channel – by ignoring the opportunity to develop a strong and effective presence that ties to customers – we encourage competitors to use this channel to our detriment.

Don't let Lock-in cause you to ignore this powerful, and shockingly low cost, communication tool.  Realize that social media is here to stay, and incorporate it into your future scenarios.  Additionally, social media is where your competition – especially fringe competitors – are likely to target you.  Why not study them, learn from them, and use the tool to grow instead of being a target?  And when it's time to implement, Disrupt your old decision-making and spending patterns so you allocate some resources to build out your social media campaign.  Then put together a White Space team with Permission to really go for success using the resources you've now dedicated to the project.

Applying the Phoenix Principle can result in a rapid improvement in social media marketing – and it just might save you a huge amount of spending on your traditional marketing communications plans.  While bringing in new customers and markets!