Better, faster, cheaper is not innovation – Kodak and Microsoft


There is a big cry for innovation these days.  Unfortunately, despite spending a lot of money on it, most innovation simply isn't. And that's why companies don't grow.

The giant consulting firm Booz & Co. just completed its most recent survey on innovation.  Like most analysts, they tried using R&D spending as yardstick for measuring innovation.  Unfortunately, as a lot of us already knew, there is no correlation:

"There is no statistically significant relationship between financial performance and innovation spending, in terms of either total R&D dollars or R&D as a percentage of revenues. Many companies — notably, Apple — consistently underspend their peers on R&D investments while outperforming them on a broad range of measures of corporate success, such as revenue growth, profit growth, margins, and total shareholder return. Meanwhile, entire industries, such as pharmaceuticals, continue to devote relatively large shares of their resources to innovation, yet end up with much less to show for it than they — and their shareholders — might hope for."

(Uh-hum, did you hear about this Abbott? Pfizer? Readers that missed it might want to glance at last week's blog about Abbott, and why it is a sell after announcing plans to split the company.)

Far too often, companies spend most of their R&D dollars on making their products cheaper, operate better, faster or do more.  Clayton Christensen pointed this out some 15 years ago in his groundbreaking book "The Innovator's Dilemma" (HBS Press, 1997).  Most R&D, in most industries, and for most companies, is spent trying to sustain an existing technology – not identify or develop a disruptive technology that would have far higher rates of return. 

While this is easy to conceptualize, it is much harder to understand.  Until we look at a storied company like Kodak – which has received a lot of news this last month.

Kodak price chart 10.5.11
Kodak invented amateur photography, and was rewarded with decades of profitable revenue growth as its string of cheap cameras, film products and photographic papers changed the way people thought about photographs.  Kodak was the world leader in photographic film and paper sales, at great margins, and its value grew exponentially!

Of course, we all know what happened.  Amateur photography went digital.  No more film, and no more film developing.  Even camera sales have disappeared as most folks simply use mobile phones.

But what most people don't know is that Kodak invented digital photography!  Really!  They were the first to create the technology, and the first to apply it.  But they didn't really market it, largely because of fears they would cannibalize their film sales.  In an effort to defend & extend their old business, Kodak licensed digital photography patents to camera manufacturers, abandoned R&D in the product line and maintained its focus on its core business.  Kodak kept making amateur film better, faster and cheaper – until nobody cared any more.

Of course, Kodak wasn't the first to fall into this trap.  Xerox invented desktop publishing but let that market go to Apple, Wintel suppliers and HP printers as it worked diligently trying to defend & extend its copier business.  With no click meter on the desktop publishing equipment, Xerox wasn't sure how to make money with it.  So they licensed it away.

DEC pretty much created and owned the CAD/CAM business before losing it to AutoCad.  Sears created at home shopping, a market now dominated by Amazon.  What's your favorite story?

It's a pattern we see a lot.  And nowhere worse than at Microsoft. 

Do you remember that Microsoft had the Zune player at least as early as the iPod, but didn't bother to develop the technology, or market, letting Apple take the lead in digital music and video devices? Did you remember that the Windows CE smartphone (built by HTC) beat the iPhone to market by years?  But Microsoft didn't really develop an app base, didn't really invest in the smartphone technology or market – and let first RIM and later Apple run away with that market as well. 

Now, several years too late Microsoft hopes its Nokia partnership will help it capture a piece of that market – despite its still rather apparent lack of an app base or breakthrough advantage.

Microsoft is a textbook example of over-investing in existing technology, in an effort to defend & extend an existing product line, to the point of  "over-serving" customer needs.  What new extensions do you want from your PC or office software? 

Do you remember Clippy?  That was the little paper clip that came up in Windows applications to help you do your job better.  It annoyed everyone, and was disabled by everyone.  A product development that nobody wanted, yet was created and marketed anyway.  It didn't sell any additional software products – but it did cost money. That's defend & extend spending.

RD cost MSFT and others 2009

How much a company spends on innovation doesn't matter, because what's important is what the company spends on real breakthroughs rather than sustaining ideas.  Microsoft spends a lot on Windows and Office – it doesn't spend enough on breakthrough innovation for mobile products or games. 

And it doesn't spend nearly enough on marketing non-PC innovations.  We are already well into the back end of the PC lifecycle.  Today more bandwidth is consumed from mobile devices than PC laptops and desktops.  Purchase rates of mobile devices are growing at double digits, while companies (and individuals) are curtailing PC purchases.  But Microsoft missed the boat because it chose to defend & extend PCs years ago, rather than really try to develop the technology and markets for CE and Zune. 

Just look at where Microsoft spends money today.  It's hottest innovation is Kinect.  But that investment is dwarfed by spending on Skype – intended to extend PC life – and ads promoting the use of PC technologies for families this holiday season.

Unfortunately, there are almost no examples of companies that miss the transition to a new technology thriving.  And that's why it is really important to revisit the Kodak chart, and then look at a Microsoft chart. 

MSFT chart 10.27.11.

(Chart 10/27/11)

Do you think Microsoft, after this long period of no value increase, is more likely to go up in value, or more likely to follow Kodak?  Unfortunately, there are few companies that make the transition.  But there have been thousands that have not.  Companies that had very high market share, once made a lot of money, but fell into failure because they invested in better, faster, cheaper rather than innovation.

If you are still holding Kodak, why?  If you're still holding Microsoft, Abbott, Kraft, Sara Lee, Sears or Wal-Mart — why? 

Why a Bad CEO is a Company Killer – Sell Hewlett Packard


“You’ve got to be kidding me” was the line tennis great John McEnroe made famous.  He would yell it at officials when he thought they made a bad decision.  I can’t think of a better line to yell at Leo Apotheker after last week’s announcements to shut down the tablet/WebOS business, spin-off (or sell) the PC business and buy Autonomy for $10.2B.  Really.  You’ve got to be kidding me.

HP has suffered mightily from a string of 3 really lousy CEOs.  And, in a real way, they all have the same failing.  They were wedded to their history and old-fashioned business notions, drove the company looking in the rear view mirror and were unable to direct HP along major trends toward future markets where the company could profitably grow! 

Being fair, Mr. Apotheker inherited a bad situation at HP.  His predecessors did a pretty good job of screwing up the company before he arrived.  He’s just managing to follow the new HP tradition, and make the company worse.

HP was once an excellent market sensing company that invested in R&D and new product development, creating highly profitable market leading products.  HP was one of the first “Silicon Valley” companies, creating enormous  shareholder value by making and selling equipment (oscilliscopes for example) for the soon-to-explode computer industry.  It was a leader in patent applications, new product launches and being first with products that engineers needed, and wanted.

Then Carly Fiorina decided the smart move in 2001 was to buy Compaq for $25B.  Compaq was getting creamed by Dell, so Carly hoped to merge it with HP’s retail PC business and let “scale” create profits.  Only, the PC business had long been a commodity industry with competitors competing on cost, and the profits largely going to Intel and Microsoft!  The “synergistic” profits didn’t happen, and Carly got fired.

But she paved the way for HPs downfall.  She was the first to cut R&D and new product development in favor of seeking market share in largely undifferentiated products.  Why file 3,500 patents a year – especially when you were largely becoming a piece-assembly company of other people’s technology?  To get the cash for acquisitions, supply chain investments and retail discounts Carly started a whole new tradition of doing less innovation, and spending a lot being a copy-cat.  

But in an information economy, where almost all competitors have market access and can achieve highly efficient supply chains at low cost, there was no profit to the volume Carly sought.  HP became HPQ – but the price paid was an internal shift away from investing in new markets and innovation, and heading straight toward commoditization and volume!  The most valuable liquid in all creation – HP ink – was able to fund a lot of the company’s efforts, but it was rapidly becoming the “golden goose” receiving a paltry amount of feed.  And itself entirely off the trend as people kept moving away from printed documents!

Mark Hurd replaced Carly,  And he was willing to go her one better.  If she was willing to reduce R&D and product development – well he was ready to outright slash it!  And all the better, so he could buy other worn out companies with limited profits, declining share and management mis-aligned with market trends – like his 2008 $13.9B acquisition of EDS!  Once a great services company, offshore outsourcing and rabid price competition had driven EDS nearly to the point of bankruptcy.  It had gone through its own cost slashing, and was a break-even company with almost no growth prospects – leading many analysts to pan the acquisition idea.  But Mr. Hurd believed in the old success formula of selling services (gee, it worked 20 years before for IBM, could it work again?) and volume.  He simply believed that if he kept adding revenue and cutting cost, surely somewhere in there he’d find a pony!

And patent applications just kept falling.  By the end of his cost-cutting reign, the once great R&D department at HP was a ghost of its former self.  From 9%+ of revenues on new products, expenditures were down to under 2%! And patent applications had fallen by 2/3rds

HP_Patent_Applications_Per_Year
Chart Source: AllThingsD.comIs Innovation Dead at HP?

The patent decline continued under Mr. Apotheker.  The latest CEO intent on implementing an outdated, industrial success formula.  But wait, he has committed to going even further!  Now, HP will completely evacuate the PC business.  Seems the easy answer is to say that consumer businesses simply aren’t profitable (MediaPost.comLow Margin Consumers Do It Again, This Time to HP“) so HP has to shift its business entirely into the B-2-B realm.  Wow, that worked so well for Sun Microsystems.

I guess somebody forgot to tell consumer produccts lacked profits to Apple, Amazon and NetFlix. 

There’s no doubt Palm was a dumb acquisition by Mr. Hurd (pay attention Google.)  Palm was a leader in PDAs (personal digital assistants,) at one time having over 80% market share!  Palm was once as prevalent as RIM Blackberries (ahem.)   But Palm did not invest sufficiently in the market shifts to smartphones, and even though it had technology and patents the market shifted away from its “core” and left Palm with outdated technology, products and limited market growth.  By the time HP bought Palm it had lost its user base, its techology lead and its relevancy.  Mr. Hurd’s ideas that somehow the technology had value without market relevance was another out-of-date industrial thought. 

The only mistake Mr. Apotheker made regarding Palm was allowing  the Touchpad to go to market at all – he wasted a lot of money and the HP brand by not killing it immediately!

It is pretty clear that the PC business is a waning giant.  The remaining question is whether HP can find a buyer!  As an investor, who would want a huge business that has marginal profits, declining sales, an extraordinarily dim future, expensive and lethargic suppliers and robust competitors rapidly obsoleting the entire technology? Getting out of PCs isn’t escaping the “consumer” business, because the consumer business is shifting to smartphones and tablets.  Those who maintain hope for PCs all think it is the B-2-B market that will keep it alive.  Getting out is simply because HP finally realized there just isn’t any profit there.

But, is the answer is to beef up the low-profit “services” business, and move into ERP software sales with a third-tier competitor?

I called Apotheker’s selection as CEO bad in this blog on 5 October, 2010 (HP and Nokia’s Bad CEO Selections).  Because it was clear his history as CEO of SAP was not the right background to turn around HP.  Today ERP (enterprise resource planning) applications like SAP are being seen for the locked-in, monolithic, buraucracy creating, innovation killing systems they really are.  Their intent has always been, and remains, to force companies, functions and employees to replicate previous decisions.  Not to learn and do anything new.  They are designed to create rigidity, and assist cost cutting – and are antithetical to flexibility, market responsiveness and growth.

But following in the new HP tradition, Mr. Apotheker is reshuffling assets – closing the WebOS business, getting rid of all “consumer” businesses, and buying an ERP company!  Imagine that!  The former head of SAP is buying an SAP application! Regardless of what creates value in highly dynamic, global markets Mr. Apotheker is implementing what he knows how to do – operate an ERP company that sells “business solutions” while leaving everything else.  He just can’t wait to get into the gladiator battle of pitting HP against SAP, Oracle, J.D. Edwards and the slew of other ERP competitors!  Even if that market is over-supplied by extremely well funded competitors that have massive investments and enormously large installed client bases!

What HP desperately needs is to connect to the evolving marketplace.  Quit looking at the past, and give customers solutions that fit where the market is headed.    Customers aren’t moving toward where Apotheker is taking the company. 

All 3 of HP’s CEOs have been a testament to just how bad things can go when the CEO is more convinced it is important to do what worked in the past, rather than doing what the market needs.  When the CEO is locked-in to old thinking, old market dynamics and old solutions – rather than fixated on understanding trends, future scenarios and the solutions people want and need bad things happen.

There are a raft of unmet needs in the marketplace.  For a decade HP has ignored them.  Its CEOs have spent their time trying to figure out how to make old solutions work better, faster and cheaper.  And in the process they have built large, but not very profitable businesses that are now uninteresting at best and largely at the precipice of failure.  They have ignored market shifts in favor of doing more of the same. And the value of HP keeps declining – down 50% this year.  For HP to change direction, to increase value, it needs a CEO and leadership team that can understand important trends, fulfill unmet needs and migrate customers to new solutions.  HP needs to rediscover innovation. 

 

 

Avoid Value Traps – Sell Dell and Hewlett Packard


In “Screening Large Cap Value Stocks24x7WallSt.com tries making the investment case for Dell.  And backhandedly, for Hewlett Packard.  The argument is as simple as both companies were once growing, but growth slowed and now they are more mature companies migrating from products into services.  They have mounds of cash, and will soon start paying a big, fat dividend.  So investors can rest comfortably that these big companies are a good value, sitting on big businesses, and less risky than growth stocks.

Nice story.  Makes for good myth. Reality is that these companies are a lousy value, and very risky.

Dell grew remarkably fast during the PC growth heyday.  Dell innovated computer sales, eschewing expensive distribution for direct-to-customer marketing and order-taking.  Dell could sell individuals, or corporations, computers off-the-shelf or custom designed machines in minutes, delivered in days.  Further, Dell eschewed the costly product development of competitors like Compaq in favor of using a limited number of component suppliers (Microsoft, Intel, etc.) and focusing on assembly.  With Wal-Mart style supply chain execution Dell could deliver a custom order and be paid before the bill was due for parts.  Quickly Dell was a money-making, high growth machine as it rode the growth of PC sales expansion.

But competitors learned to match Dell’s supply chain cost-cutting capabilities. Manufacturers teamed with retailers like Best Buy to lower distribution cost. As competition copied the use of common components product differences disappeared and prices dropped every month.  Dell’s advantages started disappearing, and as they continued to follow the historical cost-cutting success formula with more outsourcing, problems developed across customer services.  Competitors wreaked havoc on Dell’s success formula, hurting revenue growth and margins.

HP followed a similar path, chasing Dell down the cost curve and expanding distribution.  To gain volume, in hopes that it would create “scale advantages,” HP acquired Compaq.  But the longer HP poured printer profits into PCs, the more it fed the price war between the two big companies.

Worst for both, the market started shifting.  People bought fewer PCs.  Saturation developed, and reasons to buy new ones were few.  Users began buying more smartphones, and later tablets.  And neither Dell nor HP had any products in development where the market was headed, nor did their “core” suppliers – Microsoft or Intel. 

That’s when management started focusing on how to defend and extend the historical business, rather than enter growth markets.  Rather than moving rapidly to push suppliers into new products the market wanted, both extended by acquiring large consulting businesses (Dell famously bought Perot Systems and HP bought EDS) in the hopes they could defend their PC installed base and create future sales. Both wanted to do more of what they had always done, rather than shift with emerging market needs.

But not only product sales were stagnating.  Services were becoming more intensely competitive – from domestic and offshore services providers – hampering sales growth while driving down margins.  Hopes of regaining growth in the “core” business – especially in the “core” enterprise markets – were proving illusory.  Buyers didn’t want more PCs, or more PC services.  They wanted (and now want) new solutions, and neither Dell nor HP is offering them.

So the big “cash hoard” that 24×7 would like investors to think will become dividends is frittered away by company leadership – spent on acquisitions, or “special projects,” intended to save the “core” business.  When allocating resources, forecasts are manipulated to make defensive investments look better than realistic.  Then the “business necessity” argument is trotted out to explain why acquisitions, or price reductions, are necessary to remain viable, against competitors, even when “the numbers” are hard to justify – or don’t even add up to investor gains.  Instead of investing in growth, money is spent trying to delay the market shift. 

Take for example Microsoft’s recent acquisition of Skype for $8.5B.  As Arstechnia.com headlined “Why Skype?” This acquisition is another really expensive effort by Microsoft to try keeping people using PCs.  Even though Microsoft Live has been in the market for years, Microsoft keeps trying to find ways to invest in what it knows – PCs – rather than invest in solutions where the market is shifting.  New smartphone/tablet products come with video capability, and are already hooked into networks.  Skype is the old generation technology, now purchased for an enormous sum in an effort to defend and extend the historical base. 

There is no doubt people are quickly shifting toward smartphones and tablets rather than PCs.  This is an irreversable trend: Platform switching PC to phone and tablet 5-2011 Chart source BusinessInsider.com

Executive teams locked-in to defending their past spend resources over-investing in the old market, hoping they can somehow keep people from shifting.  Meanwhile competitors keep bringing out new solutions that make the old obsolete.  While Microsoft was betting big on Skype last week Mediapost.com headlined “Google Pushes Chromebook Notebooks.”  In a direct attack on the “core” customers of Dell and HP (and Microsoft) Google is offering a product to replace the PC that is far cheaper, easier to use, has fewer breakdowns and higher user satisfaction. 

Chromebooks don’t have to replace all PCs, or even a majority, to be horrific for Dell and HP.  They just have to keep sucking off all the growth.  Even a few percentage points in the market throws the historical competitors into further price warring trying to maintain PC revenues – thus further depleting that cash hoard.  While the old gladiators stand in the colliseum, swinging axes at each other becoming increasingly bloody waiting for one to die, the emerging competitors avoid the bloodbath by bringing out new products creating incremental growth.

People love to believe in “value stocks.”  It sounds so appealing.  They will roll along, making money, paying dividends.  But there really is no such thing.  New competitors pressure sales, and beat down margins.  Markets shift wtih new solutions, leaving fewer customers buying what all the old competitors are selling, further driving down margins.  And internal decision mechanisms keep leadership spending money trying to defend old customers, defend old solutions, by making investments and acquisitions into defensive products extending the business but that really have no growth, creating declining margins and simply sucking away all that cash.  Long before investors have a chance to get those dreamed-of dividends.

This isn’t just a  high-tech story.  GM dominated autos, but frittered away its cash for 30 years before going bankrupt.  Sears once dominated retailing, now its an irrelevent player using its cash to preserve declining revenues (did you know Woolworth’s was a Dow Jones company until 1997?).  AIG kept writing riskier insurance to maintain its position, until it would have failed if not for a buyout.  Kodak never quit investing in film (remember 110 cameras? Ektachrome) until competitors made film obsolete. Xerox was the “copier company” long after users switched to desktop publishing and now paperless offices.

All of these were once called “value investments.”  However, all were really traps.  Although Dell’s stock has gyrated wildly for the last decade, investors have lost money as the stock has gone from $25 to $15. HP investors have fared a bit better, but the long-term trending has only had the company move from about $40 to $45.  Dell and HP keep investing cash in trying to find past glory in old markets, but customers shift to the new market and money is wasted.

When companies stop growing, it’s because markets shift.  After markets shift, there isn’t any value left.  And management efforts to defend the old success formula with investments in extensions simply fritter away investor money.  That’s why they are really value traps.  They are actually risky investments, because without growth there is little likelihood investors will ever see a higher stock price, and eventually they always collapse – it’s just a matter of when.  Meanwhile, riding the swings up and down is best left for day traders – and you sure don’t want to be long the stock when the final downturn hits.

Finding the Money – Be Smarter, like IBM


You gotta love the revenue growth in companies like Apple and Google.  From 2000 to 2010 Apple revenues jumped from $8B to $65B.  Google grew from nothing to $29B.  But for some organizations, amidst market shifts, simply maintaining revenues is an enormous challenge. 

In a dynamic world, many companies are losing revenues to new competitors who seem on a suicide mission to destroy industry profitability!  In this situation, the ability to grow takes on an entirely different flavor.  As “core” markets retract (in revenues or profits,) can the company find a way to enter new markets in order to maintain revenues – and possibly grow profits? For many organizations, facing radical market shifts, moving from no-growth, declining profit markets into higher growth, better profit markets is a huge challenge.

Recall that IBM once completely dominated the computer industry.  An IBM skunk works program in Florida is credited for creating the modern day personal computer – and because of the team’s decision to  use external componentry (an IBM heresy at the time) creating Microsoft.  As the market shifted toward these smaller computers, IBM focused on defending its traditional mainframe base, eschewing PC sales entirely. By the 1990s IBM was almost bankrupt! In trying to preserve its old, “core,” mainframe business IBM completely missed the market shift and waited until its customers started disappearing before taking action.  But by then new competitors had claimed the new market!

In came an outsider, Louis Gerstner, who saw the trend toward far greater user of external services by people in information technology.  He pushed IBM from being a “hardware” company to an “IT services” provider (overly simplified explanation, to be sure) and IBM roared back as a tremendous turnaround success story.

But, what would be next?  As Mr. Gerstner left IBM the company’s “core” market was in for another huge upheaval.  Vast armies of IT consultants had been created in other companies, such as Electronic Data Systems (EDS), Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC) and audit firms such as Anderson (now named Accenture) Coopers & Lybrand and Deloitte & Touche.  This created rampant competition and margin pressures from so much capacity. 

Simultaneously, the emergence of similar armies, often even more highly trained, of consultants in India at companies such as Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Infosys – at dramatically lower cost and using development standards such as the Capability Maturity Model – was further transforming the landscape of service providers. More and more services contracts were going to these new competitors in foreign countries at prices a fraction of historical rates.  Domestic margins were tanking!

As IT integration and services lost its margin several big competitors began paying enormous premiums to buy customer computer shops, completely taking them over customer via a new approach called “outsourcing” – a solution offering that nearly bankrupted EDS due to the razor thin margins.  The market IBM entered to save itself, and make Mr. Gerstner famous, was no longer capable of keeping IBM a profitably growing concern.

In 2002 it was by no means clear whether IBM would remain successful, or end up again in dire straights.  But, as detailed in Fortune’s CNNMoney web site, “IBM’s Sam Palmisano: A Super Second Act” things haven’t gone too badly for IBM this decade as profits have grown 4 fold.

Rather than simply trying to do more of what Mr. Gerstner did, Mr. Palmisano lead IBM into developing a new scenario of the future, leading to the birth of the Smarter Planet program.  Not dissimilar from how Steve Jobs used Apple’s scenario planning to push the company from Macs into new growth product markets, the scenario planning such as Smarter Planet opened many doors for new business opportunities at IBM.  The result has been a dramatic increase (well more than doubling) its more profitable software sales, as well as development of new solutions for everything from global banking to transportation management, government systems and a whole lot more.  New solutions driven by the desire to fulfill the future scenario  – and solutions that are considerably more profitable than the gladiator war that had become IT services.

Ibm_pretax_income_chart

Using scenario planning to create White Space where employees can develop new solutions is a hallmark of successful companies.  By redirecting resources away from defensive activities, new solutions can be created before the proverbial roof collapses in the declining margin business. By spending money on new product development, and new market development, new revenues are generated where there is more growth – and less competition.  And that allows the company to shift with the marketplace, rather than be stuck in a bad business when it’s way too late to shift — because new competitors have already captured the new markets. 

(For a White Space primer, check out the InnovationManagement.com article “White Space Mapping – Seeing the Future Beyond the Core.”)

When markets shift the first sign is intense competition, driving down margins.  Too many leaders decide to “hunker down” and put all resources into defending the old business.  Costs are slashed and all spending is put into competitive warfare.  This, inevitably, leads to ugly results, because such behavior ignores the market shift.  Being Smarter means recognizing the market shift, and changing investments – putting more money into new projects directed at finding new revenues, and most often higher rates of return.

Not all companies are growing like Apple, Google, Facebook or Groupon.  But that doesn’t mean they aren’t on the road to growth by shifting their revenues into new markets – like IBM.  What ties these companies together is their use of scenario planning to focus on the future, rather than relying on traditional planning systems firmly tied to the past. And investing in White Space so the company can find new markets, and new solutions, before competition eliminates the margin altogether.

If Mr. Palmisano is soon to leave IBM, as the article indicates is likely, we can surely hope the Board will seek out a replacement who is equally willing to make the right investments.  Keeping the company pushing forward by developing future scenarios, and creating solutions that fulfill them. 

 

 

“Enterprise Customer” risk – RIM Blackberry and Apple iPhone

The second step of The Phoenix Principle is "Obsess about Competitors."  This doesn't rile people up much.  But when I tell them "I want you to dramatically cut the time you talk to and listen to customers – and invest that investigating competitors" then LOTS of people get riled up.  When I wrote a Forbes column on the topic ("Listen to Competitors – Not Customers") I was inundated with comments – most of them not too kind.  People were upset that I would attack the widely held notion that you can't spend enough time listening to customers.

There are lots of examples of companies led down the primrose path to disaster by listening to customers.  One of my favorites is that IBM got out of the PC business by the latter half of the 1980s because their customers – data center managers – told them that they could see no need for PCs and the product was a waste of resources.  IBM needed to renew its focus on data center (real computing!) needs and quit playing with that toy! 

We have another great example emerging right now in mobile devices. RIM (Research in Motion) has focused on the "enterprise marketplace" by selling hard to corporations that they should have Blackberry servers and Blackberry corporate applications which can be supported well and have the "right kind" of security and features for a typical "enterprise" IT department.  Because of this, RIM has really put all of its money into supporting "enterprise" customers, doing what they want.  But meanwhile, Apple has been busy changing the game – by giving the market what it wants and targeting the destruction of Palm rather than doing what the "enterprise customers" have asked for.

Apple v RIM apps
Source: Silicon Alley Insider

RIM's focus on its "core customer" the "enterprise customer" has been intended to make sure the Blackberry Defends & Extends its leadership position.  But that has not yielded many apps.  Even Adroid has 6x the RIM apps (and a likely launch an attack on "enterprise customers" soon.) Meanwhile, by focusing on the marketplace, and discovering unmet and underserved needs in order to wipe out Palm, Apple has developed 34X the number of RIM apps.

Alpple V RIM market share march 2010
Source:  Silicon Alley Insider

As we can see, this difference in applications has let Apple blow right by Palm – and almost catch RIM.  And of course, that will now be the next market Apple will attack.  Just like the PC attacked the old data center, the iPhone (and iPad) and all its users will drive these products into every day business useWhile RIM was "listening to its customer" it missed a major change in the marketplace.  The requirement for multiple apps.  While RIM was attempting to Defend & Extend its market position – and probably bragging about holding share while Palm was getting creamed – it was letting Apple create the market shift that is soon going to overtake RIM and Blackberry.  Don't forget, you can obtain a Blackberry from almost any network provider – so what will happen when the iPhone and iPad become move beyond limited distribution to all network providers?

This customer-centric problem is most pronounced in "enterprise" solutions.  Like IBM, which was the #1 "enterprise" vendor for corporate computing.  The notion of selling to the "enterprise" connotes big sales, with big revenues to big companies – and it is assumed big profits will result.  Yet, what really happens is that often supporting the "enterprise" marketplace ends up being a never ending effort to make small improvements to existing products in order to help the "core customer" do one more small thing – making their life easy.  While the "enterprise" vendor is busy with this work, he ends up Defending & Extending his "base" product for his "base" customers – and the customers are trying to Defend & Extend their historical investment.  But eventually these "enterprise" customers shift – usually very fast.

Meanwhile Apple is in the marketplace, paying all kinds of attention to the weaknesses of competitors and picking them off – one by one.  First Palm, then RIM.  We spend too much time listening to customers, letting them convince us to Defend & Extend our products and solutions.  We need to spend a LOT MORE time focused on competition – figuring out how to ruin their day while developing fringe opportunities that change the marketplace and drive growth!