by Adam Hartung | Mar 3, 2010 | General, In the Rapids, Leadership, Openness, Web/Tech, Weblogs
Guy Kawasaki contacted me a couple of weeks ago, asking me to write a short piece for him. I was happy to do so, and he published it at the BusinessInsider.com War Room as "10 Ways to Stay Ahead of the Competition." Fortunately for me, the article was also picked up at IBMOpenForum.com with the alternate title "How to Stay Ahead of the Competition." Full explanations of each bullet are at both locations (although the graphics are outstanding at Business Insider so I prefer it.)
- Develop future scenarios
- Obsess about competitors
- Study fringe competitors
- Attack your Lock-ins
- Seek Disruptions
- Don't ask customers for insight
- Avoid Cost Cutting
- Do lots of testing
- Acquire outside input
- Target competitors
Blog followers know that this program has now worked for many companies who want to grow in this recession. The reason it works is because
- You focus on the market, not yourself
- You avoid Lock-in blindness by avoiding an over-focus on existing products, services and customers
- You use outside input, from advisers and competitors to identify market shifts that can really hurt you
- You put a competitive edge into everything you do. Competitors kill your returns, not yourself.
- You use market feedback rather than internal analysis guide resource allocation
Of course this works. How can it not? When you are obsessed about markets and competitors and you let it direct your flow of money and talent you'll constantly be positioned to do what the market values. You'll have your eyes on the horizon, and not the rear view mirror.
The biggest objection is always my comment about "don't ask customers for insight." So many people have been indoctrinated into "always ask the customer" and "the customer is always right" that they can't imagine not asking customers what you ought to do. Even though the evidence is overwhelming that customer feedback is usually wrong, and more likely destructive than beneficial.
Just remember, IBMs best customers (data center managers) told them the PC was a stupid product, and IBM dropped the product line 6 years after inventing the PC business. DEC's customers kept asking for more bells and whistles on their CAD/CAM systems, then dropped DEC altogether for AutoCad ending the company. GM customers kept asking for bigger, faster more comfortable cars – improvements on previous models – then moved to imports with different designs, better gas mileage and better fit/finish. Circuit City customers asked for more in-store assistance, then took the assistance across the street to buy from cheaper Best Buy stores. The stories are legend of failed companies who delivered what the customer wanted, and ended up out of business.
Enjoy the links, and thanks to Guy for publishing this short piece. Follow these 10 steps and any business can stay ahead of the competition.
by Adam Hartung | Feb 22, 2010 | Current Affairs, Innovation, Leadership, Web/Tech
It's easy to recognize a company in the winner's circle. Like Apple or Google. Most of us want to know how to spot the winners early. And that can be hard, because often the reported information will make an emerging winner sound horrible. Like the expected demise of Apple in 2000.
Last week Dell reported sales and earnings, and valuation fell (Marketwatch.com "Dell Shares Fall as Company Net Slips"). The article notes that sales were "surprisingly strong," but claims that a dip in profits was bad news sending the stock price downward. Of particular concern was a lack of growth in desktop PCs. Many analysts are expecting (I should say hoping) that System 7 is going to spur additional desktop sales and are upset that Dell isn't getting "its fair share" versus Hewlett Packard.
This is entirely the wrong way to evaluate Dell's results. Simultaneously, the Mobile unit had very strong performance. As did Services, greatly aided by the Perot acquisition. As I blogged months ago, Dell has started moving in a new direction. Toward the growth markets of mobile devices and the need to build out applications using Cloud computing architectures. These markets are certain to grow in the future. Meanwhile, desktop PC sales are destined to decline. There is no doubt about this.
Dell has been undertaking some Disruptions, and using White Space to develop and go to market with new products in these newer, growing markets. Amidst this effort, it has put less money into the hotly contested and profit-margin-declining old fashioned PC business. This is clearly the right move. If Dell is the first and strongest to transition to new markets it has the best chance of regaining old growth rates. For Dell, the best thing possible is to see it growing beyond anticipation in these markets.
Some analysts complained that both mobile and services are too small as businesses at Dell, and therefore the company needs to put more resources (meaning price actions) into traditional PCs. These same analysts will lambaste Dell when the market shift is completely pronounced and the traditionalist (which now appears to be HP) is left in decline. Dell has used White Space to begin launching products. If it uses these White Space efforts to learn the company can become smart, faster than other competitors, and "jump the curve" from its old business/market to the new one. Isn't that what every business needs to do?
What we want to see now is ongoing investment in these growth markets,
with breakout products that can make a big revenue difference. White
Space is good, but it is critical that Dell invest fast and smart to
replace old revenues as quickly as possible.
I was encouraged by Dell's results. The company is growing where it needs to, and de-emphasizing businesses that can become slaughterhouses. For investors, employees and suppliers this is a good thing. When companies are using White Space it is easy to beat them up and ask them to "refocus" on traditional markets. It also can kill them. Here's hoping Dell stays on track.
by Adam Hartung | Dec 31, 2009 | Current Affairs, Defend & Extend, General, Leadership, Openness, Web/Tech
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
We end the first decade in 2000 with another first. In ReutersBreakingViews.com "Don't Diss the Dividend" we learn 2000-2009 is the first time in modern stock markets when U.S. investors made no money for a decade. Right. Worse performance than the 1930s Great Depression. Over the last decade, the S&P 500 had a net loss of about 1%/year. After dividends a gain of 1% – less than half the average inflation rate of 2.5%.
Things have shifted. We ended the last millenium with a shift from an industrial economy to an information economy. And the tools for success in earlier times no longer work. Scale economies and entry barriers are elusive, and unable to produce "sustainable competitive advantage." Over the last decade shifts in business have bankrupted GM, Circuit City and Tribune Corporation – while gutting other major companies like Sears. Simultaneously these changes brought huge growth and success to Google, Apple, Hewlett Packard, Virgin and small companies like Louis Glunz Beer, Foulds Pasta and Tasty Catering.
Even the erudite McKinsey Quarterly is now trumpeting the new requirements for business success in "Competing through Organizational Agility." Using academic research from the London Business School, author Donald Sull points out that market turbulence increased 2 to 4 times between the 1970s and 1990s – and is continuing to increase. More market change is happening, and market changes are happening faster. Thus, creating strategies and organizations that are able to adjust to shifting market requirements creates higher revenue and improved operational efficiency. Globally agility is creating better returns than any other business approach.
A McKinsey Quarterly on-line video "Navigating the New Normal: A Conversation with 4 Chief Strategy Officers," discusses changes in business requirements for 2010 and beyond. All 4 of these big company strategists agree that success now requires far shorter planning cycles, abandoning efforts to predict markets that change too quickly, and recognizing that historically indisputable assumptions are rapidly becoming obsolete. What used to work at creating competitive advantage no longer works. Monolothic strategies developed every few years, with organizations focused on "execution," are simply uncompetitive in a rapidly shifting world.
And "the old boys club" of white men in top business leadership roles is quickly going to change dramatically. In the Economist article "We Did It" we learn that in 2010 the American workforce will shift to more than 50% women. If current leaders continue following old approaches – and generating anemic returns – they will rapidly be replaced by leaders willing to do what has to be done to succeed in today's marketplace. Like Indra Nooyi of PepsiCo, women will take on more top positions as investors and employees demand changes to improve performance. Leaders will have to be flexible and adaptive or they, and their organizations, will not survive.
Additionally, the information technology products which unleashed this new era will change, and become unavoidable. In Forbes "Using the Cloud for Business" one of the creators of modern ERP (enterprise resource planning) systems (like SAP and Oracle) Jan Baan discusses how cloud computing changes business. ERP systems were all about data, and the applications were stovepiped – like the industrial enterprises they were designed for. Unfortunately, they were expensive to buy and very expensive to install and even more expensive to maintain. Simultaneously they had all the flexibility of cement. ERP systems, which proliferate in large companies today, were control products intended to keep the organization from doing anything beyond its historical Success Formula.
But cloud computing is infinitely flexible. Compare Facebook to Lotus Notes and you start understanding the difference between cloud computing and large systems. Anyone can connect, share links, share files and even applications on Facebook at almost no cost. Lotus Notes is an expensive enterprise application that costs a lot to buy, to operate, to maintain and has significantly less flexibility. Notes is about control. Facebook is about productivity.
Cloud computing is 1/10th the cost of monolithic owned/internal IT systems. Cloud computing offers small and mid-sized companies all the computing opportunity of big companies – and big advantages to new competitors if CIOs at big companies hold onto their "investments" in IT systems too long. Businesses that use cloud architectures can rearrange their supply chain immediately – and daily. Flexibility, and adaptability, grows exponentially. And EVERYONE can use it. Where mainframes were the tool for software engineers (and untouchable by everyone else), the PC made it possible for individuals to have their own applications. Cloud computing democratizes computing so everyone with a smartphone has access and use. With practically no training.
As we leave the worst business environment in modern times, we enter a new normal. Those who try to defend & extend old business practices will continue to suffer declining returns, poor performance and failure – like the last decade. But those who embrace "the new normal" can grow and prosper. It takes a willingness to let scenarios about the future drive your behavior, a keen focus on competitors to understand market needs, a willingness to disrupt old Lock-ins and implement White Space so you can constantly test opportunities for defining new, flexible and higher returning Success Formulas.
Here's to 2010 and the new normal! Happy New Year!
by Adam Hartung | Oct 7, 2009 | Current Affairs, Disruptions, General, In the Rapids, Innovation, Leadership, Web/Tech
"Amazon Cuts Kindle Price to $259" is the USAToday headline. This $40 whack is the second price cut this year. Sony is selling its ePocket for $199. Of course Kindle is pushing that it has more content available and easier wireless access than Sony,- even internationally. Expectations are for 3 million e-Readers to be sold in 2009 (about 1 million around the holidays.) Obviously, if you aren't paying attention this is a big deal. It is changing publishing (books, magazines and newspapers.) But the impact goes far beyond publishing.
Simultaneously, The Wall Street Journal reports "Just a Touch Away, the Elusive Tablet PC." According to this article, new devices are being tested that will allow you to do everything from classic PC applications to web interconnection to watch movies – or read books – on a keyboard-less new tablet. Something that is a cross between an iPhone/iTouch (with a bigger screen) and a PC. As iPhone users are learning (quickly) you don't need a keyboard or mouse to have an interface to your machine and the world.
So what will be the future solution? Will it be one of these, or yet something different? I don't know. Do you have a crystal ball? But the answer to that question really doesn't matter to us today. We don't need to know that sort of specific to begin growing our businesses.
Not being widget nuts, or platform forecasters, should not stop us from planning for a different sort of future and changing our approach today. Scenarios for 2013 (you do have scenario plans for 2013, don't you?) should be planning on practically everybody having one of these devices. And perhaps these devices being so cheap they could be included with sales of every major appliance (like a car, or refrigerator). If that sounds silly, just look at how cheap a flash (or thumb) drive is now. Remember when we thought floppy disks were expensive? Now people exchange flash drives that have more capacity than a 2004 laptop without thinking about cost. These made tapes, floppy drives, zip drives and a lot of other technology obsolete in a hurry.
How can your business take advantage of this shift? Can you replace paper manuals, maybe even user instructions with a tablet? Or a tablet app? Can you use an interactive device that grabs input from your appliance to do diagnostics, recommend maintenance, report on failures? Would this help customers pop for the new frig – say if it helped lower electric bills? Or could it encourage that new washer by helping set the cycles to lower water cost? Could you build it right into the console on a washer or dryer? Or could you encourage someone to buy a new car by telling them to forget about maintenance logs and just track the car's performance on a tablet?
If you provide content – are you planning for this? Recently The Economist sent me an email (I've registered on their web site) telling me they were going to start charging for web content. I've heard News Corp. properties, like the Wall Street Journal, intend to do the same. I guess they haven't noticed the world is moving in a direction that makes such a plan – well, impossible. In a recent Harris poll (reported on Silicon Alley Insider "People Won't Pay for News Online") 74% of web users said they'd simply switch sites before paying. With one of these eReader/Tablets in hand, why would they ever pay for content when another provider is a finger streak away? As access becomes easier and easier, the willingness to pay will go down and down. Publishers had better start figuring out how to get paid a different way than subscriptions!
Now is about when executives like to say "so I want to know which format will win before I start doing this. I only want to do this once." That old cry for efficiency. Unfortunately, while waiting for a winner to emerge, the waiter becomes the laggard. The early adopter, that recognizes the value provided to consumers, gets out there and starts using these innovations to drive better customer value. And to capture more sales. When you are part of making the market – like Apple in music – you gain huge advantages. You don't have to know all the answers to compete. You just have to be willing to Disrupt old notions and use White Space to experiment and learn.
I have drawers filled with obsolete electronics. How many obsolete cell phones do you own? How many big old monitors are you recycling to replace with flat screens? Do you still have a fax machine? I have an old keyboard that used something called "sideband technology" to allow me to interact with people and get news and sports info years before the internet was popular – and before wireless internet was available. Obsolete now, that device taught me how valuable the internet was going to be when Congress made it available for commercial use. Fear of throwing away a few products or software – maybe a betamax machine or copy of visicalc – is no reason not to get into the market and learn!
Markets are marvelous things. As these articles discuss, nobody knows how we will be using technology in the future. Not exactly. It will be some combination of eReader – computer – music player – television – telephone. But we do know the broad theme. And if you want to get out of this recession, you can start playing to this market shift now. You'll never grow if you sit on the sidelines watching and waiting. Get in the market. Participate. Use this technology to create new solutions! There are countless applications (as the expanding iPhone app base is proving.) Want to get into the Rapids of growth? You'll never succeed if you don't become part of the marketplace. Nothing creates learning like doing!
