Gladiators get killed. Dump Wal-Mart; Buy Amazon


Wal-Mart has had 9 consecutive quarters of declining same-store sales (Reuters.)  Now that’s a serious growth stall, which should worry all investors.  Unfortunately, the odds are almost non-existent that the company will reverse its situation, and like Montgomery Wards, KMart and Sears is already well on the way to retail oblivion.  Faster than most people think.

After 4 decades of defending and extending its success formula, Wal-Mart is in a gladiator war against a slew of competitors.  Not just Target, that is almost as low price and has better merchandise.  Wal-Mart’s monolithic strategy has been an easy to identify bulls-eye, taking a lot of shots.  Dollar General and Family Dollar have gone after the really low-priced shopper for general merchandise.  Aldi beats Wal-Mart hands-down in groceries.  Category killers like PetSmart and Best Buy offer wider merchandise selection and comparable (or lower) prices.  And companies like Kohl’s and J.C. Penney offer more fashionable goods at just slightly higher prices.  On all fronts, traditional retailers are chiseling away at Wal-Mart’s #1 position – and at its margins!

Yet, the company has eschewed all opportunities to shift with the market.  It’s primary growth projects are designed to do more of the same, such as opening smaller stores with the same strategy in the northeast (Boston.com).  Or trying to lure customers into existing stores by showing low-price deals in nearby stores on Facebook (Chicago Tribune) – sort of a Facebook as local newspaper approach to advertising. None of these extensions of the old strategy makes Wal-Mart more competitive – as shown by the last 9 quarters.

On top of this, the retail market is shifting pretty dramatically.  The big trend isn’t the growth of discount retailing, which Wal-Mart rode to its great success.  Now the trend is toward on-line shopping.  MediaPost.com reports results from a Kanter Retail survey of shoppers the accelerating trend:

  • In 2010, preparing for the holiday shopping season, 60% of shoppers planned going to Wal-Mart, 45% to Target, 40% on-line
  • Today, 52% plan to go to Wal-Mart, 40% to Target and 45% on-line.

This trend has been emerging for over a decade.  The “retail revolution” was reported on at the Harvard Business School website, where the case was made that traditional brick-and-mortar retail is considerably overbuilt.  And that problem is worsening as the trend on-line keeps shrinking the traditional market.  Several retailers are expected to fail.  Entire categories of stores.  As an executive from retailer REI told me recently, that chain increasingly struggles with customers using its outlets to look at merchandise, fit themselves with ideal sizes and equipment, then buying on-line where pricing is lower, options more plentiful and returns easier!

While Wal-Mart is huge, and won’t die overnight, as sure as the dinosaurs failed when the earth’s weather shifted, Wal-Mart cannot grow or increase investor returns in an intensely competitive and shifting retail environment.

The winners will be on-line retailers, who like David versus Goliath use techology to change the competition.  And the clear winner at this, so far, is the one who’s identified trends and invested heavily to bring customers what they want while changing the battlefield.  Increasingly it is obvious that Amazon has the leadership and organizational structure to follow trends creating growth:

  • Amazon moved fairly quickly from a retailer of out-of-inventory books into best-sellers, rapidly dominating book sales bankrupting thousands of independents and retailers like B.Dalton and Borders.
  • Amazon expanded into general merchandise, offering thousands of products to expand its revenues to site visitors.
  • Amazon developed an on-line storefront easily usable by any retailer, allowing Amazon to expand its offerings by millions of line items without increasing inventory (and allowing many small retailers to move onto the on-line trend.)
  • Amazon created an easy-to-use application for authors so they could self-publish books for print-on-demand and sell via Amazon when no other retailer would take their product.
  • Amazon recognized the mobile movement early and developed a mobile interface rather than relying on its web interface for on-line customers, improving usability and expanding sales.
  • Amazon built on the mobility trend when its suppliers, publishers, didn’t respond by creating Kindle – which has revolutionized book sales.
  • Amazon recently launched an inexpensive, easy to use tablet (Kindle Fire) allowing customers to purchase products from Amazon while mobile. MediaPost.com called it the “Wal-Mart Slayer

 Each of these actions were directly related to identifying trends and offering new solutions.  Because it did not try to remain tightly focused on its original success formula, Amazon has grown terrifically, even in the recent slow/no growth economy.  Just look at sales of Kindle books:

Kindle sales SAI 9.28.11
Source: BusinessInsider.com

Unlike Wal-Mart customers, Amazon’s keep growing at double digit rates.  In Q3 unique visitors rose 19% versus 2010, and September had a 26% increase.  Kindle Fire sales were 100,000 first day, and 250,000 first 5 days, compared to  80,000 per day unit sales for iPad2.  Kindle Fire sales are expected to reach 15million over the next 24 months, expanding the Amazon reach and easily accessible customers.

While GroupOn is the big leader in daily coupon deals, and Living Social is #2, Amazon is #3 and growing at triple digit rates as it explores this new marketplace with its embedded user base.  Despite only a few month’s experience, Amazon is bigger than Google Offers, and is growing at least 20% faster. 

After 1980 investors used to say that General Motors might not be run well, but it would never go broke.  It was considered a safe investment.  In hindsight we know management burned through company resources trying to unsuccessfully defend its old business model.  Wal-Mart is an identical story, only it won’t have 3 decades of slow decline.  The gladiators are whacking away at it every month, while the real winner is simply changing competition in a way that is rapidly making Wal-Mart obsolete. 

Given that gladiators, at best, end up bloody – and most often dead – investing in one is not a good approach to wealth creation.  However, investing in those who find ways to compete indirectly, and change the battlefield (like Apple,) make enormous returns for investors.  Amazon today is a really good opportunity.

Let Sears Go! No Subsidies, and Sell the Stock. Invest in Groupon


Sears is threatening to move its headquarters out of the Chicago area.  It’s been in Chicago since the 1880s.  Now the company Chairman is threatening to move its headquarters to another state, in order to find lower operating costs and lower taxes. 

Predictably “Officals Scrambling to Keep Sears in Illinois” is the Chicago Tribune headlined.  That is stupid.  Let Sears go.  Giving Sears subsidies would be tantamount to putting a 95 year old alcoholic, smoking paraplegic at the top of the heart/lung transplant list!  When it comes to subsidies, triage is the most important thing to keep in mind.  And honestly, Sears ain’t worth trying to save (even if subsidies could potentially do it!)

“Fast Eddie Lampert” was the hedge fund manager who created Sears Holdings by using his takeover of bankrupt KMart to acquire the former Sears in 2003. Although he was nothing more than a financier and arbitrager, Mr. Lampert claimed he was a retailing genius, having “turned around” Auto Zone. And he promised to turn around the ailing Sears. In his corner he had the modern “Mad Money” screaming investor advocate, Jim Cramer, who endorsed Mr. Lampert because…… the two were once in college togehter.  Mr. Cramer promised investors would do well, because he was simply sure Mr. Lampert was smart.  Even if he didn’t have a plan for fixing the company.

Sears had once been a retailing goliath, the originator of home shopping with the famous Sears catalogue, and a pioneer in financing purchases.  At one time you could obtain all your insurance, banking and brokerage needs at a Sears, while buying clothes, tools and appliances.  An innovator, Sears for many years was part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  But the world had shifted, Home Depot displaced Sears on the DJIA, and the company’s profits and revenues sagged as competitors picked apart the product lines and locations.

Simultaneously KMart had been destroyed by the faster moving and more aggressive Wal-Mart.  Wal-Mart’s cost were lower, and its prices lower.  Even though KMart had pioneered discount retailing, it could not compete with the fast growing, low cost Wal-Mart. When its bonds were worth pennies, Mr. Lampert bought them and took over the money-losing company.

By combining two losers, Mr. Lampert promised he would make a winner.  How, nobody knew.  There was no plan to change either chain.  Just a claim that both were “great brands” that had within them other “great brands” like Martha Stewart (started before she was convicted and sent to jail), Craftsman and Kenmore. And there was a lot of real estate.  Somehow, all those assets simlply had to be worth more than the market value.  At least that’s what Mr. Lampert said, and people were ready to believe.  And if they had doubts, they could listen to Jim Cramer during his daily Howard Beale impersonation.

Only they all were wrong.

Retailing had shifted.  Smarter competitors were everywhere.  Wal-Mart, Target, Dollar General, Home Depot, Best Buy, Kohl’s, JCPenney, Harbor Freight Tools, Amazon.com and a plethora of other compeltitors had changed the retail market forever.  Likewise, manufacturers in apparel, appliances and tools had brough forward better products at better prices.  And financing was now readily available from credit card companies. 

Surely the real estate would be worth a fortune everyone thought.  After all, there was so much of it.  And there would never be too much retail space.  And real estate never went down in value.  At least, that’s what everyone said.

But they were wrong.  Real estate was at historic highs compared to income, and ability to pay.  Real estate was about to crater.  And hardest hit in the commercial market was retail space, as the “great recession” wiped out home values, killed personal credit lines, and wiped out disposable income.  Additionally, consumers increasingly were buying on-line instead of trudging off to stores fueling growth at Amazon and its peers rather than Sears – which had no on-line presence.

Those who were optimistic for Sears were looking backward.  What had once been valuable they felt surely must be valuable again.  But those looking forward could see that market shifts had rendered both KMart and Sears obsolete.  They were uncompetitive in an increasingly more competitive marketplace.  As competitors kept working harder, doing more, better, faster and cheaper Sears was not even in the game.  The merger only made the likelihood of failure greater, because it made the scale fo change even greater. 

The results since 2003 have been abysmal.  Sales per store, a key retail benchmark, have declined every quarter since Mr. Lampert took over.  In an effort to prove his financial acumen, Mr. Lampert led the charge for lower costs.  And slash his management team did – cutting jobs at stores, in merchandising and everywhere.  Stores were closed every quarter in an effort to keep cutting costs.  All Mr. Lampert discussed were earnings, which he kept trying to keep from disintegrating.  But with every quarter Sears has become smaller, and smaller.  Now, Crains Chicago Business headlined, even the (in)famous chairman has to admit his past failure “Sears Chief Lampert: We Ought to be Doing a Lot Better.”

Sears once built, and owned, America’s tallest structure.  But long ago Sears left the Sears Tower.  Now it’s called the Willis Tower by the way – there is no Sears Tower any longer.  Sears headquarters are offices in suburban Hoffman Estates, and are half empty.  Eighty percent of the apparel merchandisers were let go in a recent move, taking that group to California where the outcome has been no better. Constant cost cutting does that.  Makes you smaller, and less viable.

And now Sears is, well….. who cares?  Do you even know where the closest Sears or Kmart store is to you?  Do you know what they sell?  Do you know the comparative prices?  Do you know what products they carry?  Do you know if they have any unique products, or value proposition?  Do you know anyone who works at Sears?  Or shops there?  If the store nearest you closed, would you miss it amidst the Home Depot, Kohl’s or Best Buy competitors?  If all Sears stores closed – every single location – would you care? 

And now Illinois is considering giving this company subsidies to keep the headquarters here?

Here’s an alternative idea. Using whatever logic the state leaders can develop, using whatever dream scenario and whatever desperation economics they have in mind to save a handful of jobs, figure out what the subsidy might be.  Then invest it in Groupon.  Groupon is currently the most famous technology start-up in Illinois.  Over the next 10 years the Groupon investment just might create a few thousand jobs, and return a nice bit of loot to the state treasury.  The Sears money will be gone, and Sears is going to disappear anyway.  Really, if you want to give a subsidy, if you want to “double down,” why not bet on a winner?

It really doesn’t have to be Groupon.  The state residents will be much better off if the money goes into any  business that is growing.  Investing in the dying horse simply makes no sense.  Beg Amazon, Google or Apple to open a center in Illinois – give them the building for free if you must.  At least those will be jobs that won’t disappear.  Or invest the money into venture funds that can invest in the next biotech or other company that might become a Groupon.  Invest in senior design projects from engineering students at the University of Illinois in Chicago or Urbana/Champaign.  Invest in the fillies that have a chance of winning the race!

Sentimenatality isn’t bad.  We all deserve the right to “remember the good old days.”  But don’t invest your retirement fund, or state tax receipts, in sentimentality.  That’s how you end up like Detroit.  Instead put that money into things that will grow.  So you can be more like silicon valley.  Invest in businesses that take advantage of market shifts, and leverage big trends to grow.  Let go of sentimentality.  And let go of Sears.  Before it makes you bankrupt!

 

Hyperdigitization: A Shift Toward Virtual


Today’s Guest Blog is provided by Mike Meikle.  He offers some great insight to the declining value of manufacturing as producitivity continues to skyrocket, pushing all of us toward understanding and competing in markets where greater value lies in digital products rather than physical.

Summary

  • Hyperdigitization is the economic shift toward “virtual” goods and services
  • Manufacturing jobs have dropped 31 percent but output is at a near record $1.7 trillion.
  • Economic output of Hyperdigitization is $2.9 trillion.
  • Google, Facebook and GroupOn all have large revenue streams/valuations yet no physical product.
  • Industrial Age economic model of static business models is rapidly fading.
  • Organizations must release their innovative capabilities to survive and thrive.

Recently, I was engaged by ExecSense to give a Risk Management & Outsourcing Trends for 2011 webinar targeted for Risk Management executives.  Since I only had an hour to cover a vast amount material, I could only briefly touch on some interesting topics. One of these was Hyperdigitization, a jargon-laden term that means economic output is moving toward “virtual” goods and services.

So how does hyperdigitization tie into outsourcing trends?  As companies continue shift their business processes to outside service providers, firms will have to develop ways to protect their intellectual property and virtual output.  Since intellectual property is data, risk managers will have to develop and monitor Key Performance Indicators (KPI) and Key Risk Indicators (KRI) to ensure their firm does not sacrifice their long-term competitive advantage for short-term cost savings.  This penny-wise, pound-foolish strategy has been discussed previously by Mr. Hartung.

But before we dig further into explaining hyperdigitization, let us review an example of the current fading Industrial economic model.  One of the chief laments heard throughout the Great Recession is that America doesn’t “make” anything anymore.  Manufacturing jobs have left primarily to cheaper labor, less regulation, lower tax countries.  Without construction jobs to fall back on, this has left a broad swath of the population unemployed.  Unfortunately this high unemployment fallout is a result of our economic model shifting away from Industrial Age practices.

While the jobs may have left (down 31%) productivity boosts have pushed the U.S. manufacturing output to near record highs of 1.7 trillion dollars.  We make more goods with less people due to technological advances.  Contrary to the economic doomsayers this is a positive trend, one that has happened before (agrarian-based economy) and will undoubtedly happen again.

What does this hyperdigitization of economic output mean in real terms?  Well, based on a Gartner report, about 20 percent of U.S. economic output in 2009 or 2.9 trillion dollars. That’s nearly double the U.S. manufacturing output.  We are awash in virtual products and services.  Think about Google alone.  The company is worth $163 billion at last estimate and does not have one physical product.

Other examples are Facebook and GroupOn.  Both are projected to be worth $65 billion and $25 billion respectively.  Yet again, neither has a physical product.   These three companies have based their business models on information arbitrage; the process of mining available data for new opportunities.

So where does all this intellectual property (data) that generates billions in profit come from?  People, who are supported by a corporate culture that values innovation and measured risk taking.

As the global economy gets exponentially more competitive, organizations need to be fast, flexible and innovative; a near polar opposite of the Industrial Age business model. A large percentage of companies are still mired in outdated business practices that protect the status-quo (Extend & Defend), squash risk taking and stifle innovation.  This has especially become prevalent in the era of downsizing culminating in the practices of the Great Recession.

In order to compete in an economy driven by hyperdigitization, the human capital of an organization has to be made a priority.  Developed nation’s economies are shifting away from static business models that produce generic widgets and services.  To thrive in the hyper competitive, constantly shifting global economy, organizations will have to create and promote a culture that emphasizes and values the Information Age success triumvirate of risk taking, innovation and rapid-execution.

Thanks Mike!  Mike Meikle shares his insights at “Musings of a Corporate Consigliere(http://mikemeikle.wordpress.com/). I hope you read more of his thoughts on innovation and corporate change at his blog site.  I thank Mike for contributing this blog for readers of The Phoenix Principle today, and hope you’ve enjoyed his contribution to the discussion about innovation, strategy and market shifts.

If you would like to contribute a guest blog please send me an email.  I’d be pleased to pass along additional viewpoints on wide ranging topics.

Finding the Money – Be Smarter, like IBM


You gotta love the revenue growth in companies like Apple and Google.  From 2000 to 2010 Apple revenues jumped from $8B to $65B.  Google grew from nothing to $29B.  But for some organizations, amidst market shifts, simply maintaining revenues is an enormous challenge. 

In a dynamic world, many companies are losing revenues to new competitors who seem on a suicide mission to destroy industry profitability!  In this situation, the ability to grow takes on an entirely different flavor.  As “core” markets retract (in revenues or profits,) can the company find a way to enter new markets in order to maintain revenues – and possibly grow profits? For many organizations, facing radical market shifts, moving from no-growth, declining profit markets into higher growth, better profit markets is a huge challenge.

Recall that IBM once completely dominated the computer industry.  An IBM skunk works program in Florida is credited for creating the modern day personal computer – and because of the team’s decision to  use external componentry (an IBM heresy at the time) creating Microsoft.  As the market shifted toward these smaller computers, IBM focused on defending its traditional mainframe base, eschewing PC sales entirely. By the 1990s IBM was almost bankrupt! In trying to preserve its old, “core,” mainframe business IBM completely missed the market shift and waited until its customers started disappearing before taking action.  But by then new competitors had claimed the new market!

In came an outsider, Louis Gerstner, who saw the trend toward far greater user of external services by people in information technology.  He pushed IBM from being a “hardware” company to an “IT services” provider (overly simplified explanation, to be sure) and IBM roared back as a tremendous turnaround success story.

But, what would be next?  As Mr. Gerstner left IBM the company’s “core” market was in for another huge upheaval.  Vast armies of IT consultants had been created in other companies, such as Electronic Data Systems (EDS), Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC) and audit firms such as Anderson (now named Accenture) Coopers & Lybrand and Deloitte & Touche.  This created rampant competition and margin pressures from so much capacity. 

Simultaneously, the emergence of similar armies, often even more highly trained, of consultants in India at companies such as Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Infosys – at dramatically lower cost and using development standards such as the Capability Maturity Model – was further transforming the landscape of service providers. More and more services contracts were going to these new competitors in foreign countries at prices a fraction of historical rates.  Domestic margins were tanking!

As IT integration and services lost its margin several big competitors began paying enormous premiums to buy customer computer shops, completely taking them over customer via a new approach called “outsourcing” – a solution offering that nearly bankrupted EDS due to the razor thin margins.  The market IBM entered to save itself, and make Mr. Gerstner famous, was no longer capable of keeping IBM a profitably growing concern.

In 2002 it was by no means clear whether IBM would remain successful, or end up again in dire straights.  But, as detailed in Fortune’s CNNMoney web site, “IBM’s Sam Palmisano: A Super Second Act” things haven’t gone too badly for IBM this decade as profits have grown 4 fold.

Rather than simply trying to do more of what Mr. Gerstner did, Mr. Palmisano lead IBM into developing a new scenario of the future, leading to the birth of the Smarter Planet program.  Not dissimilar from how Steve Jobs used Apple’s scenario planning to push the company from Macs into new growth product markets, the scenario planning such as Smarter Planet opened many doors for new business opportunities at IBM.  The result has been a dramatic increase (well more than doubling) its more profitable software sales, as well as development of new solutions for everything from global banking to transportation management, government systems and a whole lot more.  New solutions driven by the desire to fulfill the future scenario  – and solutions that are considerably more profitable than the gladiator war that had become IT services.

Ibm_pretax_income_chart

Using scenario planning to create White Space where employees can develop new solutions is a hallmark of successful companies.  By redirecting resources away from defensive activities, new solutions can be created before the proverbial roof collapses in the declining margin business. By spending money on new product development, and new market development, new revenues are generated where there is more growth – and less competition.  And that allows the company to shift with the marketplace, rather than be stuck in a bad business when it’s way too late to shift — because new competitors have already captured the new markets. 

(For a White Space primer, check out the InnovationManagement.com article “White Space Mapping – Seeing the Future Beyond the Core.”)

When markets shift the first sign is intense competition, driving down margins.  Too many leaders decide to “hunker down” and put all resources into defending the old business.  Costs are slashed and all spending is put into competitive warfare.  This, inevitably, leads to ugly results, because such behavior ignores the market shift.  Being Smarter means recognizing the market shift, and changing investments – putting more money into new projects directed at finding new revenues, and most often higher rates of return.

Not all companies are growing like Apple, Google, Facebook or Groupon.  But that doesn’t mean they aren’t on the road to growth by shifting their revenues into new markets – like IBM.  What ties these companies together is their use of scenario planning to focus on the future, rather than relying on traditional planning systems firmly tied to the past. And investing in White Space so the company can find new markets, and new solutions, before competition eliminates the margin altogether.

If Mr. Palmisano is soon to leave IBM, as the article indicates is likely, we can surely hope the Board will seek out a replacement who is equally willing to make the right investments.  Keeping the company pushing forward by developing future scenarios, and creating solutions that fulfill them. 

 

 

Throw away that slide rule! Use Facebook, iPhones, iPads and Groupon


My high school physics teacher spent a week teaching students how to use a slide rule.  I asked him, "why can't we just use calculators?" At the time a slide rule was about $2, and a calculator was $300.  The minimum wage was $1.14/hour.  He responded that slide rules had been around a long time, and you never knew if you'd have access to a calculator. To the day he retired he insisted on using, and teaching, slide rule use.  Needless to say, by then plenty of folks were ready to see him go.  Too bad for his students he stayed as long as he did, because that was a week they could have spent learning physics, and other important materials. Ignoring the new tool, and its advantages, was a wasteful decision that hurt him and his customers.

Yet, I am amazed at how few people are using today's new tools for business, and marketing.  At a small business Board meeting this week the head of marketing presented his roll-out of the boldest campaign ever in the business's history.  His promotion plan was centered around traditional PR, supplemented with radio and billboard ads.  I asked for his social media campaign, and after he confirmed I was serious he said he had a manager working on that.  I asked if he had a facebook page ready, the videos on YouTube, a linked-in program ready to run against targets and his twitter communications established, including hash tags? He said if those things were important somebody had to be working on them.  Two weeks from roll-out and he wasn't giving them any personal consideration.

I then asked the roughly 20 attendees, all but one of which were over 40, some questions:

  • How many of you use skype at least once/month? Answer – 5%
  • How many of you have a facebook page and check it daily? A – 15%
  • How many of you check twitter daily? A – 5%  Tweet at least 5 times/week? A – none
  • How many own and use a tablet? A – 10%
  • How many of you have a smartphone on which you've downloaded at least 10 apps? A – 10%
  • How many of you carry a laptop? A – 100%
  • Who knows the #1 company for new hires in Chicago in 2010? Answer – 5% (GroupOn)
  • Who has used a Groupon coupon? Answer – 30%

Slide rule users.

New tools are here, and adopters will be the winners. If you still think we're a nation of laptop users, you need to think again.  Laptop usage declined 20% in the last 2 years, to 2006 levels, as people have adopted easier to use technology

Declining PC Usage 2010

Chart Source: Silicon Alley Insider of BusinessInsider.com

If you are trying to pump out ads the new medium is mobile – not television, radio, outdoor or even web sites.  Have you tested the look and feel of your web site on popular mobile devices? Do you know if new users to your business are even able to access your information from a mobile device?

And, it's more likely a customer will hear about you, and obtain a review of your product or service, via Facebook than vai the web!  A CNet.com article asks the leading question "Will Facebook Replace Company Web Sites?" Want to understand the importance of Facebook, check out these same month comparisons:

  • Starbucks: Facebook likes – 21.1M, site visits – 1.8M
  • Coca-Cola: Facebook likes – 20.5M, site visits – .3M
  • Oreo: Facebook likes – 10.1M, site visits – .3M

Yes, these are consumer products.  But if you don't think the first place a potential customer looks for information on your business is Facebook, whether it's financial services, business insurance, catering or blow-molded plastic housings you need to think again.  The use of facebook is simply exploding. 

According to Business Insider, by the end of December, 2010 Facebook apps were downloaded to iPhones at a rate exceeding 500,000/day as the total shot to nearly 60million! Meanwhile the Facebook app downloads to Android devices grew to over 20million!  Blackberry Facebook users has reached 27million, bringing the total by end of 2010 to well over 100M – just on smartphones!  In September, 2010 Facebook became the #1 most time spent on the internet, passing combined time on all Google and all Yahoo sites!  With over 500million users, Facebook isn't just kids checking on their friends any longer. When somebody wants a first peak at your business, odds are great it will be done over a smartphone and likely via a Facebook referral!

Facebook minutes 9.2010

Chart Source: Silicon Alley Insider at Business Insider

As fast as smartphone usage has grown, tablet usage is on the precipice of explosion.  Tablet sales will be 6 times (or more) notebook sales in just a few years!  The second most popular product will be, of course, continued sales of advanced smartphones as the two new platforms overtake the traditional laptop.  So what's your budgeted spend on mobile devices, mobile apps and mobile marketing?

Tablet Sales Forecast 2.11

Chart Source: Silicon Alley Insider of Business Insider

And in the effort to attract new customers, if you think the route will be newspapers, radio, TV, billboards, or direct mail – think again.  Digital local deal delivery is projected to grow at least 45%/year through 2015 creating a market of over $10billion! If you want somebody to know about your product or service, Groupon and its competitors is already taking the lead over older, traditional techniques.  By the way, when was the last time you bothered to open that latest Vallasis direct mail package – or did you just throw it immediately in the recycling bin without even a look?

Groupon Market forecast 1.11

Chart Source: Silicon Alley Insider of Business Insider

So, what is your business doing to leverage these tools?  Are your marketing, and technology, plans for 2011 and 2012 still mired in old approaches and technologies?  If so, expect to be eclipsed by competitors who more quickly implement these new solutions.

Too often we become comfortable in our old way of doing things.  We keep implementing the same way, like the teacher giving slide rule instructions.  And that simply wastes resources, and leaves you uncompetitive.  The time to use these new solutions was yesterday – and today – and tomorrow – and every day.  If you don't have plans to adopt these new solutions, and use them to grow your business, what's your excuse?  Is it that much fun using the old slide rule?