From the Frying Pan into the Fire – Google’s Motorola Problem


The business world was surprised this week when Google announced it was acquiring Motorola Mobility for $12.5B – a 63% premium to its trading price (Crain’s Chicago Business).  Surprised for 3 reasons:

  1. because few software companies move into hardware
  2. effectively Google will now compete with its customers like Samsung and HTC that offer Android-based phones and tablets,  and
  3. because Motorola Mobility had pretty much been written off as a viable long-term competitor in the mobile marketplace.  With less than 9% share, Motorola is the last place finisher – behind even crashing RIM.

Truth is, Google had a hard choice.  Android doesn’t make much money.  Android was launched, and priced for free, as a way for Google to try holding onto search revenues as people migrated from PCs to cloud devices.  Android was envisioned as a way to defend the search business, rather than as a profitable growth opportunity.  Unfortunately, Google didn’t really think through the ramifications of the product, or its business model, before taking it to market.  Sort of like Sun Microsystems giving away Java as a way to defend its Unix server business. Oops.

In early August, Google was slammed when the German courts held that the Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 could not be sold – putting a stop to all sales in Europe (Phandroid.comSamsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 Sales Now Blocked in Europe Thanks to Apple.”) Clearly, Android’s future in Europe was now in serious jeapardy – and the same could be true in the USA.

This wasn’t really a surprise.  The legal battles had been on for some time, and Tab had already been blocked in Australia.  Apple has a well established patent thicket, and after losing its initial Macintosh Graphical User Interface lead to Windows 25 years ago Apple plans on better defending its busiensses these days.  It was also well known that Microsoft was on the prowl to buy a set of patents, or licenses, to protect its new Windows Phone O/S planned for launch soon. 

Google had to either acquire some patents, or licenses, or serously consider dropping Android (as it did Wave, Google PowerMeter and a number of other products.)  It was clear Google had severe intellectual property problems, and would incur big legal expenses trying to keep Android in the market.  And it still might well fail if it did not come up with a patent portfolio – and before Microsoft!

So, Google leadership clearly decided “in for penny, in for a pound” and bought Motorola. The acquisition now gives Google some 16-17,000 patents.  With that kind of I.P. war chest, it is able to defend Android in the internicine wars of intellectual property courts – where license trading dominates resolutions between behemoth competitors.

Only, what is Google going to do with Motorola (and Android) now?  This acquisition doesn’t really fix the business model problem.  Android still isn’t making any money for Google.  And Motorola’s flat Android product sales don’t make any money either. 

Motorola rev and profits thru Q2 11
Source: Business Insider.com

In fact, the Android manufacturers as a group don’t make much money – especially compared to industry leader Apple:

IOS v Android operating profit mobile companies july-2011
Source: Business Insider.com

There was a lot of speculation that Google would sell the manufacturing business and keep the patents.  Only – who would want it?  Nobody needs to buy the industry laggard.  Regardless of what the McKinsey-styled strategists might like to offer as options, Google really has no choice but to try running Motorola, and figuring out how to make both Android and Motorola profitable.

And that’s where the big problem happens for Google.  Already locked into battles to maintain search revenue against Bing and others, Google recently launched Google+ in an all-out war to take on the market-leading Facebook.  In cloud computing it has to support Chrome, where it is up against Microsoft, and again Apple.  Oh my, but Google is now in some enormously large competitive situations, on multiple fronts, against very well-heeled competitors.

As mentioned before, what will Samsung and HTC do now that Google is making its own phones?  Will this push them toward Microsoft’s Windows offering?  That would dampen enthusiasm for Android, while breathing life into a currently non-competitor in Microsoft.  Late to the game, Microsoft has ample resources to pour into the market, making competition very, very expensive for Google.  It shows all the signs of two gladiators willing to fight to the loss-amassing death.

And Google will be going into this battle with less-than-stellar resources.  Motorola is the market also ran.  Its products are not as good as competitors, and its years of turmoil – and near failure – leading to the split-up of Motorola has left its talent ranks decimated – even though it still has 19,000 employees Google must figure out how to manage (“Motorola Bought a Dysfunctional Company and the Worst Android Handset Maker, says Insider“).  

Acquisitions that “work” are  ones where the acquirer buys a leader (technology, products, market) usually in a high growth area – then gives that acquisition the permission and resources to keep adapting and growing – what I call White Space.  That’s what went right in Google’s acquisitions of YouTube and DoubleClick, for example.  With Motorola, the business is so bad that simply giving it permssion and resources will lead to greater losses.  It’s hard to disaagree with 24/7 Wall Street.com when divulging “S&P Gives Big Downgrade on Google-Moto Deal.”

Some would like to think of Google as creating some transformative future for mobility and copmuting.  Sort of like Apple. 

Yea, right.

Google is now stuck defending & extending its old businesses – search, Chrome O/S for laptops, Google+ for mail and social media, and Android for mobility products.  And, as is true with all D&E management, its costs are escalating dramatically.  In every market except search Google has entered into gladiator battles late against very well resourced competitors with products that are, at best, very similar – lacking game-changing characteristics. Despite Mr. Page’s potentially grand vision, he has mis-positioned Google in almost all markets, taken on market-leading and well funded competition, and set Google up for a diasaster as it burns through resources flailing in efforts to find success.

If you weren’t convinced of selling Google before, strongly consider it now.  The upcoming battles will be very, very expensive.  This acquisition is just so much chum in the water – confusing but not beneficial.

And if you still don’t own Apple – why not?  Nothing in this move threatens the technology, product and market leader which continues bringing game-changers to market every few months.

Why Google Plus is a Big Minus for Investors


Google rolled out its newest social media product this week.  Unfortuntately for Google investors, this is not a good thing.

Internet usage is changing. Dramatically.  Once the web was the world’s largest library, and simultaneously the world’s biggest shopping mall.  In that environment, what everyone needed was to find things.  And Google was the world’s best tool for finding things.  When the noun, Google, became the verb “googled” (as in “I googled your history” or I googled your brand to see where I could buy it”) it was clear that Google had permanently placed itself in the long history of products that changed the world.

But increasingly the internet is not about just finding things.  Today people are using the internet more as a way to network, communicate and cooperatively share information – using sites like Facebook, LInked-in and Twitter.  Although web usage is increasing, old style “search-based” use is declining, with all the growth coming from “social-based” use:  Facebook web minutes used

Chart source: AllThingsD.com

This poses a very real threat to Google.  Not in 2011, but the indication is that being dominant in search has a limit to Google’s future revenue growth through selling search-based ads.  And, in fact, while internet ads continue growing in all ad categories, none is growing as fast as display ads. And of this the Facebook market is growing the fastest, as MediaPost.com pointed out in its headline “On-line Ad Spend up, Facebook soars 22%.” In on-line display ads Facebook is now first, followed by Yahoo! (the original market dominator) and Google is third, as described in “Facebook Serves 25% of Display Ads.”

While Google is not going to become obsolete overnight, the trend is now distinctly moving away from Google’s area of domination and toward the social media marketplace.  Products like Facebook are emerging as platforms which can displace your need for a web site (why build a web site when all you need is on their platform?) or even email.  Their referral networks have the ability to be more powerful than a generic web search when you seek information.  And by tying you together with others like you, they can probably move you to products and buying locations you really want faster than a keyword Google-style search.  BNet.com headlined “How Facebook Intends to Supplant Google as the Web’s #1Utility,” and it just might happen – as we see users are increasingly spending more time on Facebook than Google: Facebook v Google minutes 6.2011
Source: Silicon Alley Insider

So, you would think it’s a good thing for Google to launch Google+. Although earlier efforts to enter this market were unsuccessful (Google Buzz and Google Wave being two well known efforts,) it would, on the surface, seem like Google has no option but to try, try again.

Only, Google + is not a breakthrough in social media.  By all accounts its a collection of things already offered by Facebook and others, without any remarkable new packaging (see BusinessInsider.comGoogle’s Launch of Google + is, once again, deeply embarrassing” or “Google Plus looks like everything else” or “Wow, Google+ looks EXACTLY like Facebook.”) With Facebook closing in on 1 billion users, it’s probably too late – and will be far too expensive, for Google to ever catch the big lead. Especially with Facebook in China, and Google noticably not.

Like many tech competitors, Google’s had a game-changer come along and move its customers toward a different solution.  Google Plus will be in a gladiator war, where everyone gets bloody and several end up dead. NewsCorp is finally exiting social media as it sells MySpace for a $550m loss – clearly a body being drug from the colliseum!  Even with its early lead, and big expenditures of time and managerial talent, NewsCorp was thrashed in the gladiator war.  Facebook v Myspace monthly visitors 4.2011
Source: BusinessInsider.com

Google may have a lot of money to spend on this battle, but shareholders will NOT benefit from the fight.  It will be long, costly and inevitably not profitable. Yes, Google needs to find new ways to grow as the market shifts – but trying to do so by engaging such powerful, funded and well-positioned competitors as the big 3 of social media is not a smart investment.

And that leads us to why Google + is really problematic.  Resources spent there cannot be spent on other opporunities which have high growth potential, and far fewer competitors.  BI‘s headline “Google kills off two of its most ambitious projects” should send shudders of fear down shareholder backs.  Google had practically no competitors in its efforts to change how Americans buy and use both healthcare servcies and utilities such as electricty and natural gas.  Two enormous markets, where Google was alone in efforts to partner with other companies and rebuild supply chains in ways that would benefit consumers.  Neither of these projects are as costly as Google+, and neither has entrenched competition.  Both are enormous, and Google was the early entrant, with game-changing solutions, from which it could capture most, if not all, the value — just as it did with its early search and ad-words success.

Additionally, Chromebooks is now coming to market. Android has been a remarkable success, trouncing RIM and with multiple vendors supporting it rapidly taking ground from Apple’s iPhone.  Only Google has made almost nothing from this platform.  Chromebooks offers a way for Google to improve monetizing its growing – and perhaps someday #1 – platform in the rapidly growing tablet business against a very weak Microsoft.  But, with so much attention on Google+ Microsoft is given berth for launching its Office 365 product as a challenger.  With so much opportunity in cloud computing, and Google’s early lead in multiple products, Google has a real chance of being bigger than Apple someday. But it’s movement into social media will not allow it to focus on cloud products as it should, and give Microsoft renewed opportunity to compete.

Google is setting itself up for potential disaster.  While its historical business slowly starts losing its growth, the company is entering into 3 very expensive gladiator wars.  First is the ongoing battle for smartphone users against Apple, where it is spending money on Android that largely benefits handset manufacturers.  Secondly it is now facing a battle for enterprise and personal productivity apps based in cloud computing where it has not yet succeeding in taking the lead position, yet faces increasing competition from Apple’s iCloud and Microsoft’s new round of cloud apps.  And on top of that Google now tells investors it is going to go toe-to-toe with the fastest growing software companies out there – Facebook, Linked-in, Twitter and a host of other entrants.  And to fund this they are abandoning markets where they were practically the only game changing solution.

There’s a lot yet to happen in the fast-moving tech markets.  But now is the time for investors to wait and see.  Google’s engineers are very talented. But it’s strategy may well be very costly, and unable to compete on all fronts.  You may not want to sell Google shares today, but it’s hard to find a reason to buy them.

Identifying the Good, Bad and Ugly – From Apple, Netflix to Google, Cisco and RIM, Microsoft


Were you ever told “pretty is as pretty does?”  This homily means “don’t just look at the surface, it’s the underlying qualities that matter.”  When I read analyst reviews of companies I’m often struck by how fascinated they are with the surface, and how weakly they seem to understand the underlying markets. Financials are a RESULT of management’s ability to provide competitive solutions, and no study of financials will give investors a true picture of management or the company’s future prospects.

The good:

Everyone should own Apple.  The list of its market successes are clear, and well detailed at SeekingAlpha.comApple: The Most Undervalued Equity in Techdom.” The reason you should own Apple isn’t its past performance, but rather that the company has built a management team completely focused on the future. Apple is using scenario planning to create solutions that fit the way people want to work and live – not how they did things in the past. 

And Apple managers are obsessive about staying ahead of competitors with better solutions that introduce new technologies, and higher levels of user productivity.  By constantly being willing to disrupt the old ways of doing things, Apple keeps bringing better solutions to market via its ongoing investment in teams dedicated to developing new solutions and figuring out how they will adapt to fit unmet needs.  And this isn’t just a “Steve Jobs thing” as the company’s entire success formula is built on the ability to plan for the future, and outperform competitors.  We are seeing this now with the impending launch of iCloud (Marketwatch.comCould Apple Still Surprise at Its Conference?“)

For nearly inexplicable reasons, many investors (and analysts) have not been optimistic about Apple’s future price.  The company’s earnings have grown so fast that a mere fear of a slow-down has caused investors to retrench, expecting some sort of inexplicable collapse.  Analysts look for creative negatives, like a recent financial analyst told me “Apple is second in value only to ExxonMobile, and I’m just not sure how to get my mind around that.  Is it possible growth could be worth that much? I thought value was tied to assets.” 

Uh, yes, growth is worth that much!  Apple’s been growing at 100%.  Perhaps it won’t continue to grow at that breakneck pace (or perhaps it will, there’s no competitor right now blocking its path), but even if it slows by 75% we’re still talking 25% growth – and that creates enormous value (compounded, 25% growth doubles your investment in 3 years.)  When you find profitable growth from a company designed to repeat itself with new market introductions, you have a beautiful thing!  And that’s a good investment.

Similarly, investors should really like Netflix.  Netflix did what almost nobody does. It overcame fears of cannibalizing its base business (renting DVDs via mail-order) and introduced a streaming download service.  Analysts decried this move, fearing that “digital sales would be far lower than physical sales.”  But Netflix, with its focus firmly on the future and not the past, recognized that emerging competitors (like Hulu) were quickly changing the game.  Their objective had to be to go where the market was heading, rather than trying to preserve an historical market destined to shrink.  That sort of management thinking is a beautiful thing, and it has paid off enormously for Netflix.

Of course, those who look only at the surface worry about the pricing model at Netflix.  They mostly worry that competitors will gore the Netflix digital ox.  But what we can see is that the big competitors these analysts trot out for fear mongering – Wal-Mart, Amazon.com and Comcast – are locked-in to historical approaches, and not aggressively taking on Netflix.  When you look at who has the #1 market position, the eyes and ears of customers, the subscriber/customer base and the delivery solution customers love you have to be excited about Netflix.  After all, they are the leaders in a market that we know is going to shift their way – downloads.  Sort of reminds you of Apple when they brought out the iPod and iTunes, doesn’t it?

The bad:

Google has been a great company.  The internet wouldn’t be the internet if we didn’t have Google, the search engine that made the web easy and fast to use, plus gave us the ads making all of that search (and lots of content) free.  But, the company has failed to deliver on its own innovations.  Android is a huge market success, but unfortunately lock-in to its old mindset led Google to give the product away – just a tad underpriced.  Other products, like Wave were great, but there hasn’t been enough White Space available for the products to develop into commercial successes.  And we’ve all recently read how it happened that Google missed the emergence of social media, now positioning Facebook as a threaten to their long-term viability (AllThingsD.comSchmidt Says Google’s Social Networking Problem is His Fault.“)

Chrome, Chromebooks and Google Wallet could be big winners.  And there’s a new CEO in place who promises to move Google beyond its past glory.  But these are highly competitive markets, Google isn’t first, it’s technology advantages aren’t as clear cut as in the old search days (PCWorld.comGoogle Wallet Isn’t the Only Mobile POS Tool.”)  Whether Google will regain its past glory depends on whether the company can overcome its dedication to its old success formula and actually disrupt its internal processes enough to take the lead with disruptive marketplace products.

Cisco is in a similar situation.  A great innovator who’s products put us all on the web, and made us wi-fi addicted.  But markets are shifting as people change their needs for costly internal networks, moving to the cloud, and other competitors (like NetApp) are the game changers in the new market.  Cisco’s efforts to enter new markets have been fragmented, poorly managed, and largely ineffective as it spent too much energy focused on historical markets.  Emblematic was the abandoned effort to enter consumer markets with the Flip camera, where its inability to connect with fast shifting market needs led to the product line shutdown and a loss of the entire investment (BusinessInsider.comCisco Kills the Flip Camera.”)

Cisco’s value is tied not to its historical market, but its ability to develop new ones.  Even when they likely cannibalize old products.  HIstorically Cisco did this well.  But as customers move to the cloud it’s still not clear what Cisco will do to remain an industry leader. Whether Google and Cisco will ever be good investments again doesn’t look too good, today.  Maybe.  But only if they realign their investments and put in place teams dedicated to new, growth markets.

The ugly:

Another homily goes “beauty may be on the surface, but ugly goes clear to the bone.”  Meaning? For something to be ugly, it has to be deeply flawed inside.  And that’s the situation at Research in Motion and Microsoft.  Optimistic investors describe both of these companies as potential “value stocks” that will find a way to “protect the installed base as an economic recovery develops” and “sell their products cheaply in developing countries that can’t afford new solutions” eventually leading to high dividend payouts as they milk old businesses.  Right.  That won’t happen, because these companies are on a self-destructive course to preserve lost markets which will eat up resources and leave them shells of their former selves. 

Both companies were wildly successful.  Both once had near-monopolies in their markets.  But in both cases, the organizations became obsessed with defending and extending sales to their “core” or “base” customers using “core” technologies and products.  This internal focus, and desire to follow best practices, led them to overspending on what worked in the past, while the market shifted away from them.

At RIMM the market has moved from enterprise servers and secure enterprise applications to local apps that access data via the cloud.  People have moved from PCs to smartphones (and tablets) that allow them to do even more than they could do on old devices, and RIM’s devotion to its historical business base caused the company to miss the shift.  Blackberry and Playbook have 1/10th the apps of leaders Apple and Android (at best) and are rapidly being competitively outrun.

Likewise, Microsoft has offered the market nothing new when it comes to emerging markets and unmet user needs as it has invested billions of dollars trying to preserve its traditional PC marketplace.  Vista, Windows 7 and Office 2010 all missed the fact that users were going off the PC, and toward new solutions for personal productivity.  Now the company is trying to play catch-up with its Skype acquisition, Nokia partnership (where sales are in a record, multi-year slide; SeekingAlpha.comNokia Deluged with Downgrades“) and a planned launch of Windows 8. Only they are against ferocious competition that has developed an enormous market lead, using lower cost technologies, and keep offering innovations that are driving additional market shift.

Companies that plan for the future, keep their eyes firmly focused on unmet needs and alternative competitors, and that accept and implement disruptions via internal teams with permission to be game-changers are the winners.  They are good investments. 

Big winners that keep seeking new opportunities, but fall into over-reliance (and focus) on historical markets and customers can move from being good investments to bad ones.  They have to change their planning and competitive analysis, and start attacking old notions about their business to free up resources for doing new things.  They can return to greatness, but only if they recognize market shifts and move aggressively to develop solutions for emerging needs in new markets.

It gets ugly when companies lose their ability to see external market shifts because they are inwardly focused (inside their organizations, and inside their historical customer base or supply chain.)  Their market sensing disappears, and their investments become committed on trying to defend old businesses in the face of changes far beyond their control. Their internal biases cause reduction of shareholder value as they spend money on acquisitions and new products that have negative rates of return in their overly-optimistic effort to regain past glory.  Those situations almost never return to former beauty, as ugly internal processes lock them into repeating past behaviors even when its clear they need an entirely new approach to succeed.

Don’t Depend on Past Success – Microsoft, Apple and Google

"Google Bans Use of Microsoft Company-Wide" is the headline on HuffingtonPost.com.  The reason given is that Microsoft had too many security issues.  This could be easily dismissed as a competitive trick.  Except for a couple of facts:

  1. Microsoft does have a number of security issues.  It's not just Google that's worried about the problems encountered when relying on Microsoft products.  While Microsoft is the gorilla, it does have problems.
  2. Today their are very reasonable alternatives.  Fifteen years ago Scott McNeely at Sun Microsystems tried to enforce the same discipline as Google. Only there ware no good alternatives to Windows and Office.  That has now changed. Significantly.

As Microsoft has lost share in all its products, it is worth noting that a leading-edge tech company is able to enforce, successfully, a ban on their products.  Aided by the fact that they can offer alternatives which are easy to use and better meet many user requirements today.  This is not good news for investors, employees, suppliers and customers of Microsoft.  A serious shift to alternative solutions has emerged, and Microsoft has given no indication it is participating in the shift.

The impact is amplified by SeekingAlpha.com's article "Apple's Growing Corporate Market Share." Like many businesses in a leading market share position, Microsoft has simply accepted that customers will keep buying their products.  But their near-monopoly is increasingly threatened as organizations realize there are very real alternatives.  Not just from Google, but from Apple as well as others.  As companies recognize that PCs are failing faster, and as managers are displeased by Microsoft requirements that they upgrade software with new purchases, corporate customers are looking for alternatives.  This can be easily dismissed as the behavior of a few "odd-balls."  But increasingly such behavior is becoming mainstream.  While Microsoft is busy forcing customers to upgrade, many companies are looking for greater stability and satisfaction with their information technology suppliers – including Microsoft replacements.

While Microsoft keeps struggling to maintain its customers, sales and share in its old business, Apple keeps moving forward.  This week SeekingAlpha.com also reports "Apple Hits 10,000 iPad Apps, Doubling in the Past Six Weeks."  Again, this might be easy to ignore for Microsoft (or status quo) fans.  But as the app library keeps building Apple keeps building a bigger advantage over everyone – including MicrosoftWhat do we think the future holds – a world full of laptops (as we know it today) or a lot more tablets and similar smart devices?  Increasingly, Microsoft is Defending its past position in the face of a tsunami of innovation for new solutions gaining adoption, and growing, very, very rapidly.

When you're the market leader it is easy to ignore competitors.  To dismiss them as "fringe" with "small share" and "not important."  But that is very risky.  Markets can shift really fast.  New competitors offer new solutions, and they allow customers to do new things.  They give customers new choices, and often customers who are less than thrilled with current solutions will switch.  As competitors make it easy to do new things, the customers switch even faster.  Before long the unexpected can happen, and leadership can switch very quickly.  Like Apple's market share in mobile devices exceeding that of Microsoft's – or Apple's cash hoard exceeding the market value of Dell (a supply chain partner of Microsoft). 

Microsoft is offering a real-time lesson to business leaders.  Planning your future based upon your past strengths is dangerousSmart competitors can offer alternatives faster than you think – and create market shifts that leave you in the lurch quickly.  It's a high-risk strategy to think you can succeed by Defending you past position when alternatives are on the horizon.

PS – ChannelInsider.com today published "Spotlight: 10 Things Tablet Computer Makers Must Do To Take On iPad." Item 5 is "Windows Won't Make Much Sense" Item 4 is "Chrome O/S Does Make Sense" Item 3 is "Give Android O/S Consideration".  For Microsoft this is a set of recommendations that cannot sit well. The market for laptops is predicted to peak and begin declining as users shift to smaller, easier products like tablets. The market pundits, as they recommend new products, are moving away from Microsoft products.  How long can Microsoft continue its focus on Defending Windows and Office? 

Defend & Extend versus White Space – Microsoft vs. Google

Two tech giants are Microsoft and Google.  The former has been around for over 30 years.  The latter about a decade.  Which is the company you should work for, or invest in?  The one that has demonstrated a long history and great record of earnings, or the newer one participating in new markets still not well understood with a slew of new – but largely unproven – products?  You might think the older one is less risky, and feel more comfortable backing.

But we know that Microsoft is losing market share, especially in growing markets.  Although its products have been dominant, the market for those products (personal computers used as servers, desktop machines and laptops) has seen substantial slowing.  New solutions are emerging that compete directly with Microsoft (new operating systems like Linux and others) and compete indirectly (cloud computing and thin applications on mobile devices.) 

Chrome v IE 3.10
Source:  Silicon Alley Insider

In just 18 months Microsoft Internet Explorer has lost 13 market share points – dropping from 68% of the market to 55%.  Almost all of that has gone to Safari (Macintosh) and Google ChromeChrome has risen from nothing to 7% of the market.  And since internet usage is growing, while desktop usage is shrinking, this is the "leading edge" of the market.

Also, the Chrome operating system will be launching later in 2010.  It also will go directly after the "Windows" franchise which had a very unexciting launch of System 7 in 2009. 

Let's look at valuation:  First Microsoft – which has gone basically sideways.  Huge peak to trough, but overall not much gain for investors despite launching two major upgrades during the period (Vista and System 7 as well as Office 2007).  Obviously, upgrade products have produced very little growth for Microsoft, or its valuation.

Microsoft 5 year chart 3.5.10

Now we can look at Google. Google investors have doubled their money, while employment has grown.  All those new products have helped Google to grow, and investors have an optimistic view of future growth.

Google 5 year chart 3.5.10 

Do you make decisions looking in the rear view mirror, or out the windshield?  It can be tempting to be influenced by a great past. But that really isn't relevant.  What's important is the future.  And we can see that Microsoft, which keeps trying to Defend & Extend what it knows is rapidly falling behind the market changer, Google, which is rapidly moving toward where markets are heading.

D&E Management never creates growth.  By trying to recapture the past, new market moves are missed and growth opportunities lost.  Companies have to move forward, with new products, into new markets.  And if you have any doubt, just compare the results of Defend & Extend Management at Microsoft the last 5 years with Phoenix Principle management using White Space at Google.