Sour Lemons, or Lemonade? – Playboy, Singer


Playboy’s Circulation drops 34%” is the Chicago Tribune headline.  Is anyone surprised?  If ever there was a brand, and business, that was out of step with current markets it has to be Playboy.  That the business still exists is a wonder.  But let’s spend a few minutes to see why Playboy has fallen on hard times, and what the alternative might have been – and could still be.

The Playboy Success Formula is really clear.  Since founded by Hugh Hefner, the company has focused on titillating the male libido with a magazine that focused on pictures of naked women, videos of same (physical videos, on-line videos and television), radio talk shows about sex, and alternative lifestyle issues such as recreational drug use.  At one time this was unique, and in a male dominated 1960s it was even tolerated. Although never mainstream, the business was very profitable early in its lifecycle.  Thus the founder kept doing more of the same, building a small empire and eventually taking the company public.

But the market shifted.  Larry Flint and others ushered in a new era of pornography altering the market for prurient, sexually oriented material.  Women in the workforce – and I’d like to think a heavy dose of decency – made public toleration of such material unacceptable.  You couldn’t read a Playboy at work, or on the airplane, and you wouldn’t have a business lunch at their clubs.  Other magazines sprung up to deal with men’s interests in automobiles, clothing, music, sports, etc. in a more acceptable – and for most people more significant and intelligent – manner.  Other lifestyle publications were developed that discussed illicit drug use and non-traditional ways of life more directly, explicitly and with greater advocacy.  The advent of cable TV and then the internet increasingly made access to the key features of Playboy’s product readily available, very inexpensive (often free) and targeted at niche audiences. 

Yet, despite these many market changes, Playboy’s founder and his daughter, the company CEOs for 40+ years, steadfastly stuck to their old Success Formula.  They kept thinking that people wanted those “bunny eared” products.  They talked a lot about the heritage of Playboy, how it broke ground in so many markets, and opened the door for lots of new competitors.  But they kept doing what the company always did – including foisting upon us the ever aging founder as a “role model” for male menopause and the anti-family aged entrepreneur.   Playboy today is what it always was – and there simply aren’t a whole lot of people with much interest in those products any more.  Nobody mismanaged the brand, the market just walked away from it.  Sort of like the demand for Geritol.

Playboy focused on its core.  And now its on the edge of bankruptcy.  The company keeps outsourcing more and more of the work, as the staff has dropped to nearly nothing, cutting costs everywhere possible.  Sales continue to decline, and the brand looks like it will soon join Polaroid and Woolworths on the heap of once famous but floundered companies.  Playboy’s fatal mistake wasn’t that it was started as a prurient men’s magazine – but rather that for 40 years its leadership kept Defending & Extending that original Success Formula despite rather dramatic market shifts.  Now, today, Playboy is a sour lemon that not many a marketer would want to be stuck promoting.

But – it didn’t have to be that way.  Just imagine if you’d been given control of Playboy 30 years ago.  What could you have done?

As soon as Hustler hit the newsstands, and the first women’s right protests developed – including the early push for the Equal Rights Amendment – it was clear that the future of the magazine was in jeopardy.  Instead of doing “more of the same” could you have considered something else?

The growth of women in the workforce meant a lot of new opportunities.  Why not jump onto that bandwagon?  If you’re really at the forefront of “lifestyle” issues, as the leadership claimed, then you would have identified that women in the workforce meant something new was brewing – a group of consumers that would have more cash, and more influence.  And not only would that be an appealing market, but so would the men who would be adjusting to new lifestyle issues as homes became dominated by 2-worker leadership.

Playboy was well positioned to be Victoria’s Secret. At a time before anybody else was really thinking about a significant market for attractive and comfortable lingerie Playboy certainly had the leading edge.  Or, even more likely, the water carrying publication for Dr. Ruth-style discussions about sexuality.  There was an emerging market for information targeted at increasingly affluent women about automobiles, stereos, apartments, resume writing, job hunting and even at-work etiquette — all topics that had been the dominant discussion areas for Playboy’s historically male readership.  Had the leadership at Playboy opened its eyes, and scanned the horizon for growth markets being developed as a result of the trends which were negatively impacting it, these leaders would have been able to create a bevy of scenarios that were filled with opportunities for growth.

It’s hard to imagine today Playboy being anything else.  But all that stopped stopped Playboy’s evolution was a commitment to its “core” – to its old Success Formula.  That the CEO for over 20 years was a well educated woman is testament to the power of “core” philosophy versus a willingness to look at market opportunities.  By keeping Playboy’s Success Formula tightly aligned with her father’s founding ideas she quite literally led the company into smaller and smaller sales with less and less profit.  The big loser was, of course, investors.  Playboy is worth very little today as Mr. Hefner hints at making a bid to take the company private once again. 

Singer was once a sewing machine company.  But when Japanese products surpassed Singer’s product capabilities and achieved a cost advantage in the 1970s, Singer leadership converted Singer into a defense contractor.  And Singer went on to multiply its value before being acquired by General Dynamics.  

IBM was an office machine company famous for mechanical typewriters and adding machines.  The founder said he would never enter computers.  Fortunately for employees and shareholders the founder’s son took the company into computers and the company flourished as competitive typewriter companies such as Smith Corona – stuck on the core business – disappeared.

There’s a time for lemons – in your tea or on a salad.  But when markets shift, lemons just turn sour.  If you want to succeed long-term you have to shift with markets.  And that might well mean making significant change.  Adding water and sugar to the lemons is a good start – as lemonade is less about lemons than what you’ve added to it.  After you open that lemonade stand, see where the market leads you

No matter where you start, every day offers the opportunity to head toward new, emerging markets.  No matter what your historical “core” you can literally become any business you want to become.  Coke was founded by a pharmacist who wanted to boost counter sales in his store – and it was worth a lot more than the pills he was constructing.  Those who develop scenarios about the future prepare for market shifts, understand the competitive changes and use them to identify the opportunities for a new future.  Then they use White Space teams to move the business into a new Success Formula.  Anybody can do it.  You could even have remade Playboy.  So what’s the plan for the future of your business?  More of the same …. or …..

Defend & Extend leads to mistakes and missed opportunities – Microsoft


This week Microsoft’s CEO Steve Ballmer said the company would get out a tablet soon, and that it would be a big success. Do you believe him? You have good reason to be doubtful.  When it comes to new products, Microsoft has been a big dud under his leadership.  But I’m not the only one complaining.  Mediapost.com ran an article quoting some very well respected sources who are very, very skeptical. Below is part of the article.  You can read the whole thing here:

“Of course that’s often the case with Microsoft,” notes Digital Daily.
“The problem is, it doesn’t always manage to do things really right.
Certainly, it didn’t manage it with Windows Vista. Or Windows Mobile. Or
Zune. Or, more recently, Kin.
Who’s to say this time will be any
different?”

“As it stands now, Microsoft’s lack of details on
the upcoming Windows tablets is not encouraging,
despite Ballmer’s
promises,” concludes PCWorld.

Seemingly overwhelmed by the rapid innovation and successes of rivals like Apple, Google, and even Facebook, Fortune
calls Ballmer “a train wreck,”
and “a salesman whose only answer to
technological change seems to be the operating system he inherited from
Bill Gates.”

Thinking of Microsoft as an “innovator,”
however, will leave you disappointed every time, Jefferies analyst
Katherine Egbert wrote in a note Friday morning. “If you stop thinking
of Microsoft as an innovator and start thinking of them as a fast, low
cost, mass market follower, you’ll stop being disappointed in their
inability to divine new markets and realize they are staring at some of
their largest growth opportunities ever.”

Microsoft is too focused on its core business to do new things correctly.  Long ago Mr. Ballmer took a Defend & Extend approach to the business.  The company doesn’t do much scenario planning to determine how markets can be disrupted – in fact they hope the opposite.  They do very little competitor analysis, because they view themselves as market dominant so beyond having to study competitors.  They ignore fringe competitors – including upstarts like Apple and Google.  Internal disruptions are verboten, and politics abound.  And there is no white space where teams can violate old lock-ins to develop a new success formula that will compete better with the likes of Apple, Google and Cisco.

Focusing on your core can get any business in trouble (read Forbes article “Stop Focusing on Your Core Business” here).  Even one with a near monopoly.  Over time, all markets shift.  When they do, the least prepared are the ones who think they “dominate” their industry.  Maybe Mr. Ballmer should have lunch with Mr. Wagoner of GM to learn what happens when you take your industry position for granted.

Stuck in old products – Nokia, Apple, Smartphones


Be very, very good at what you do.  Once that was the mantra for business successIn Search of Excellence sold millions of copies because it brought forward the idea that companies which excelled at identifying and delivering customer value sold more and made more money.  Not bad advice at the time. And from that advice grew all kinds of recommendations to understand “core” customers, capabilities, technologies, costs, etc. – then benchmark your performance against competitors and do more so you remain #1.  That thinking has been around for 30 years.  Unfortunately, its far from enough to create success in 2010.

Motorola was once #1 in mobile phones.  It had developed smartphones, but they were not part of the core product line.  So Motorola did everything it could to keep selling Razrs. 

Apple-v-MOT-mobile-shipments 07-10
Source:  Silicon Alley Insider

When Apple introduced the iPhone Motorola was selling 35 miillion units/quarter.  Three years later Apple is shipping more iPhones than Motorola is shipping all its phones.  By creating a marketplace disruption Apple knocked Motorola out of first place in mobile phones.  Motorola stuck to what it new best, and despite its great strengths in its traditional core competencies and markets saw revenues and profits plummet.

Nokia did a much better job of maintaining unit volume in handsets. But unfortunately it has had to drop prices dramatically to maintain volumes.  Profits have evaporated, and nobody really cares much about what Nokia is doing any more – despite its huge handset volumes.  The excitement, and profitability, is going to the smaller unit volume Apple.  As a result, the market value of Nokia had dropped more than 50%, while the market value of Apple has exploded 200%!

Apple-v-nokia valuation 7.10
Source: Silicon Alley Insider

Both Motorola and Nokia maintained a focus on their “core.”  Core markets, products and competencies.  Yet, they are now market inert.  Motorola is in oblivion.  And that’s the message in the Forbes article “Stop Focusing on Your Core Business.”  We easily become obsessed with doing what we’ve historically done well better, faster and cheaper.  So obsessed we miss market shifts.  And that is deadly.  Only those companies that can transition to new markets – and new competencies —- that can develop new “cores” by not being too closely tied to the old ones – have any hope of long term success.

PS – I bet you think your words are your greatest communication tool.  Think again!  In a great Forbes article “How To Win an Argument Without Words” Nick Morgan describes why body language can be more important than what you say!  Overcome your lock-in to thinking what works in a meeting or presentation and pay attention to what really may make the difference!!

Look to New Markets to Grow- RIM, Apple, Google, Kraft


Blackberry’s Era May Be Ending” is the New York Times title on a Reuter’s story about the pioneering leader in smartphones.  That RIM is in trouble is undoubtedly true – so much so it will not likely survive as a stand-alone company, if it survives at all!  The company is in a growth stall, with U.S. market share in the first quarter dropping to 41% from 55% last year.  Selling cheaply priced products outside the U.S. has masked the deep revenue problem developing at RIM – as the company tries to convince investors that it really isn’t falling way behind new competitors. 

It was just April 8 when I published  on this blog “Enterprise Customer Risk” in which I described how Blackberry’s ongoing focus on corporate customers allowed it to fall far behind in the applications development area ( see the 2 critical charts in previous blog showing the application weakness as well as market share problems).  Now Apple has 30 TIMES the number of apps available on the Blackberry.  On January 10 in “Winners and Losers from Shifts” this blog posted a chart showing how Apple hit 1 billion application downloads in its first 14 months of iPhone sales.  Two weeks ago MediaPost.com reported “Android Hits 1 Billion Downloads.”  Android now has about 100,000 apps, while Apple has about 225,000 apps.  RIM doesn’t even have 10,000 apps. 

RIM made a huge mistake.  It focused on its core market of enterprise Blackberry customers.  It tried to Defend its historical market share by focusing on its historical customers – and ignoring the smartphone non-user markets being developed by Apple (and now Google.)  As a result it’s price/earnings multiple has fallen to 10 – amidst clear indications that RIM is unlikely to ever regain much growth as this growth stall continues.

We might like to think this sort of rapid problem creation is limited to technology companies.  Unfortunately, not so.  Crain’s Chicago Business today reports that “Kraft Foods Sees Slowdown in U.S. Cookie and Cracker Sales, Complicating CEO Rosenfeld’s Growth Agenda.”  Kraft has had no measurable organic growth for over a decade, nor successful entries into new markets.  The last year Kraft’s CEO demonstrated no commitment to organic growth by putting all her energy into the acquisition of Cadbury in order to expand Kraft’s “core” market position – dominated by Oreo, Chips Ahoy, Ritz Crackers and Wheat Thins.  But now sales for the last quarter in the historical business are down 3.8%!

Kraft is another example of what happens when a company hits a growth stall.  It may have a few up periods, but overall it is 93% likely to never again consistently grow at a mere 2%!  Defend & Extend management uses obfuscation, like acquisitions, to hide underlying problems in the company’s ability to meet changing market needs.  Resources are poured into price cutting promotions and advertising, looking only at the marginal cost and the initial sales, which props up the over-spending on worn out products in a worn-out Success Formula – and in Kraft’s case even these aren’t able to keep customers buying brands that are over 50 years aged.  Ms. Rosenfeld will try to keep everyone’s attention on the top-line, hoping they forget that “growth” was manufactured by acquisition and that in fact both sales and margins are deteriorating in the “core” brands.

So, are you still trying to find your growth in this “Great Recession” by doing more of what you’ve always done – hoping customers will for some reason flock to your old way of doing business?  That, quite frankly, has almost no hope of working.  Customers are looking for new solutions every day.  If you focus on protecting old markets, maybe by asking old customers what to do, you’ll miss the emergence of new markets where underserved customers are creating all the growthIf you don’t have plans to expand your business by 20% or more in new markets across the next 2 years you have more chance of burning up your resources than growing – and you might well end up like GM, FAO Schwarz or Sharper Image!

End of the Road – Sara Lee, BP


According to Crain’s Chicago BusinessSara Lee Looks to Sell Bread Business.” Large investors seem to support the sale, hoping this will expedite a take-over by a larger consumer goods company or a privage equity firm.  They hope the sale of this laggard company will finally bail them out of a bad investment.  Should either takeover happen, Sara Lee would likely cease to exist as a company.  Most employees would lose their jobs, more products “streamlined” into the dustbin, and another Chicago headquarters would disappear. 

Since taking the helm in 2005 CEO Brenda Barnes has systematically dismantled Sara Lee.  Then a $19B company, Sara Lee has shrunk by almost 50% to just over $10B.  From 2005 to 2009, as asset sales dominated management attention, value declined by 75%, from $20/share to $5.  On the hope of high values for the asset balance as the company is shopping its very existence, value has risen to $15/share – a 25% decline from the starting point.  Hard to call that “excellent” CEO performance.

Sara Lee leadership was so focused on trying to Defend & Extend legacy business models that when they didn’t improve the business was sold.  Year by year, Sara Lee got smaller.  And the end of the road looks to be the end of Sara Lee.  Customers lost  many products, with almost no new product introductions to replace them.  Employees had almost no growth opportunities as the company shrank.  Suppliers saw margins shrink as they were beat upon to lower prices.  And investors have suffered losses.  There is no “winner” at the end of the road for Defend & Extend Management.  When the company moves into the Whirlpool little is said as the remnants slip away.

Today we are fascinated by BP’s effort to cap the Deepwater Horizon oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico.  Will it work?  Everyone certainly hopes so.  But what will it mean for BP if the leak is capped?  Unfortunately, precious little.

The New York Times reported recently “In BP’s Record: A History of Boldness and Costly Blunders.” In classic Defend & Extend behavior, Tony Hayward early on implemented a “back to basics” campaign to “refocus” BP on its “core strengths.”  These are all warning signs. When management looks backward, it is not looking forward.  Taking “bold action” to “do what the company has always done best” is simply using euphemisms to ignore added risk in effort to protect a Success Formula with declining value.  People feel pushed to improve performance by constant optimization – including a lot of cost cutting.  And cost cutting leads to blunders.

BP is far from the Whirlpool.  But things don’t look good for BP.  As Forbes published in “BP’s Only Hope for Its Future” BP has to change its direction pretty remarkably or it’s employees, investors, suppliers and customers could find out BP has a long way yet to fall.  Drilling ever riskier wells, in riskier places, for less reserves is not a long-term viable Success Formula.

Jumping the Curve and D&E – Apple iPhone 4, iPad, Google Android


For good reason, a lot of controversy is swirling around Apple’s iPhone 4 problems.  With Consumer Reports saying the product’s antenna is defective, and the company admitting there’s a software glitch regarding signal strength reporting, Apple’s newest smartphone release is looking not so smart.  Even CNN television was running reports about Apple’s “debacle” and what the company should do this morning – including product recalls, software upgrades, issuing new cases, etc.  Recommendations that could cost billions of dollars!

Beyond the cost to fix outstanding customer problems, shareholders and employees have good reason to be concerned.  According to MediaPost.com “Quantcast: Android Keeps Gaining Steam.” For the most recent quarter Google is now #2 in phone shipments, exceeding Apple and trailing only RIM.  Google has gained 14 share points this year, while Apple has lost 7.7 share points and RIM 5.7 points.  There are now 60 Android models on the market. 

And Google’s open development platform seems to be picking up steam compared to the more closed/controlled Apple platform.  Share of handhelds is less critical than number, and share, of downloadable (and downloaded) apps.  That Google’s app base is growing quickly, as is Apple’s, is really the story to watch.  But with the iPhone 4 issues, will app developers look closer at Android? 

This story is a microcosm of Lock-in and Defend & Extend management.  Apple was the big pioneer in pushing smartphone apps, and with only 3.5% of the phone market garnered huge PR, unit sales and profits with its early generation. It’s closed environment, along with sleek style and commitment to AT&T network, were all part of the Success Formula.  Apple Locked-in on that, and through 3 generations kept growing.  But now we see the kind of thing that happens when a business unit Locks-in.  In an effort to make rev 4 the team starts pushing for more, better, faster, cheaper – optimizing what’s been working – and suddenly a mistake happens.  A parallel to BP – only happening in “warp speed.”  The team is trying to push hard to maintain, even grow, handset and app share – and using D&E management to do so.  The risk, as we see, is that optimization can lead to cutting costs (antenna design and implementation), and then getting defensive when you’re caught making a mistake!

Google is still pushing forward in smartphones with largely a White Space team approach.  Not yet Locked-in, it is still experimenting with new solutions.  New vendors and markets.  It is learning how to attack the Lock-ins at both RIM (the enterprise market) as well as Apple.  And as a result, it’s share is gaining.  This is good for Google – and definitely not good for Apple.

The biggest screaming is for Steve Jobs to quit being defensive and become apologetic, as BusinessInsider.com recommends in “Here’s How Apple Can Recover from the Snowballing iPhone 4 Disaster.”  The claim is that Mr. Jobs is so personally magnetic that his mere verbal apologies will keep customers and developers loyal – and keep Apple in the lead. 

Not so fast.  Mr. Jobs is a good CEO, but if your phone doesn’t work…..

Apple needs to get the iPhone team back into White Space work.  Today the iPad is the big White Space project at Apple.  The Mac, iPod, iTunes and iPhone have started to lose their edge.  As Apple has brought forward new products, in new markets, it has pulled off the big goal of “jumping the curve” – by going from one growth market to the next.  It has been able to keep up high growth through new market entries.  The iPad is the latest in this series, as it is developing the emerging – and rapidly growing – tablet marketplace.

But as we can see, the risk is that D&E behavior creeping into the other markets becomes risky.  Luckily competitors for iPod, iTunes and iTouch have been rather feckless.  So locked-in to their old, outdated Success Formulas they have done little to effectively attack Apple.  Apple has maintained share rather easily. 

But this is not the case with iPhone.  Another new entrant, Google, is using new scenarios about the future, a deep understanding of competitors and a willingness to Disrupt itself and the marketplace.  In a characteristically Phoenix Principle way, Google is attacking the iPhone by taking advantage of the Lock-in Apple has to its initial Success Formula.  If Apple doesn’t change, not only will it continue to make unwise decision errors – such as the antenna problem and the horribly defensive PR reaction to its discovery – but it will rapidly lose its advantage.  Apple’s advantage came from understanding the market – not optimizing iPhone capability.  And Google looks to be gaining the marketplace understanding advantage now.

Apple has to redesign the iPhone management.  The team must push itself back into White Space.  Be driven not by its internal goals for iPhone, iPhone apps and capabilities – but driven by future scenarios.  The team has to get a LOT, LOT savvier about competitors.  RIM and Palm are non-competitors now.  It’s about understanding Google and its partnersincluding Facebook. Apple has to rethink its future scenarios and how competitors will try to do things differently.  And Apple has to Disrupt its Lock-in to the original Success Formula in order to develop new innovations that can allow it to not only grow (in a very high growth market) but maintain share!

The iPhone 4 problems should be a wake-up call to Apple.  Falling into D&E management thinking is easy.  Anybody can become inwardly focused on optimizing historical strengths and capabilities.  It’s remarkable how you can lose sight of emerging competitors, hoping your Success Formula will win if you just work at it harder.  Apple needs to keep winning with the iPad, as that’s a tremendous opportunity.  But it also needs to get the iPhone team back into using White Space to behave like a Phoenix Principle organization for the smartphone business.

Go to Jail? – RICO, BP, Enron, Worldcom


What do Tony Hayward, Jeff Skilling and Bernard Ebbers possibly have in common?  They all might end up convicted felons

While this may sound ridiculous, and very, very scary to corporate CEOs, nobody expected Skilling, the CEO of Enron, or Ebbers, the CEO of Worldcom, to go to jail.  They were hailed as heros, and admired for their leadership of large, high growth companies.  Yet, Ebbers is waiting out a 25 year sentence, convicted of acting illegally in the value destruction at Worldcom (CNNMoney.comEbbers Gets 25 Years.”)  And Skilling is working on a 24 year sentence for the downfall of Enron (CNNMoney.comSkilling Gets 24 Years.”)

Now, BusinessWeek.com is asking if the same fate awaits Tony Hayward in “The Oil Spill:  Will BP Face Criminal Charges?  As the spill goes on and on, and the damages increase, the public sentiment against BP is increasing.  If the spill goes around Florida to the east coast there will be millions more citizens, and businesses, affected.  It is clear that many laws were broken, as the article lays out.  So it’s not a mute question that an aggressive prosecutor would go after imprisoning Hayward.

As reprehensible as many may find each of these 3 men, how did they end up facing criminal prosecution?  Even The Washington Post has asked Did Jeff Skilling Do Anything Illegal?  A Harvard MBA and former McKinsey partner, Mr. Skilling calmly described the practices at Enron completely unapologitically. He was certain he’d done nothing wrongMr. Ebbers was a devout Christian and Sunday School teacher who claimed all through the trial and to reporters on the way to jail he’d done nothing wrong.  I’m sure Mr. Hayward believes similarly.

What all 3 did was simply push the Success Formula too far.  Worldcom, Enron and BP were wildly successful companies.  They created Success Formulas that earned billions of dollars.  For years they grew.  But unfortunately, they kept trying to push the Success Formula to better results when market shifts left that formula earning lower returns.  Rather than recognize that lower returns were an indication of a Success Formula needing change, they dug in their heals and “got creative” in Defending & Extending it.  They used “best practices” to lower costs, and to seek out financial machinations which would allow the business to look more profitable – even as they undertook more, and more risk. 

To them, taking risk rather than change the Success Formula wasn’t thought of as risk.  They were out to protect something they felt had to be protected, at all cost.  The Success Formula that had made money for years, enriching not only themselves but investors, employees and suppliers.  They were blind to the added risk, because it was assumed that doing incrementally more was the “right thing to do” for the company.  They were doing what they believed were “best practices” for the “health” of their companies.

Defending a Success Formula can become very risky, as I wrote in ForbesBP’s Only Hope For Its Future.”  Years of doing the same thing, only more, better, faster, cheaper, makes it harder and harder to do something different.  The culture and decision-making systems are designed, and modified — Locked-in — to push employees to make the same decision over and over, regardless of risk.  In BPs case we now know that cheaper parts and practices were employed to improve profitability – something each employee felt was in the company’s best interest.  Only, in the end, it served to layer risk upon risk – and lead to an eventual disaster.

Are you “doubling down” on risk in your business?  Are you investing more and more into trying to improve returns in a business that is earning less and less – and growing less and less?  If so, you could be setting yourself up for disaster as well.  Let’s hope in doing so you don’t run afoul of the law.  25 years in prison is a hefty price to pay for spending too much energy “focused on your core” business at a time when you should be looking for new ways to expand and grow where the risks are less.

20 Phrases That Kill Innovation – BloggingInnovation.com describes Lock-in


All organizations must move into new markets with new customers buying new solutions.  It’s inevitable.  Over time, all product markets shift to new solutions.  Given this inevitability, isn’t it amazing how few make the shift?

BloggingInnovation.com published a GREAT article “20 Phrases That Kill Ideas and Innovation.”  What I like is that we’ve all heard these 20!!!!  Here we go with “That’s a good idea, but…”

  1. It’s against company policy
  2. It’s not practical
  3. It’s not necessary
  4. We don’t have the resources
  5. It will cost too much
  6. We’ve never done it that way
  7. Our customers (or vendors) won’t like it
  8. It needs more study
  9. It’s not part of your job
  10. Let’s make a survey first
  11. Let’s sit on it for a while
  12. That’s not our problem
  13. The boss won’t go for it
  14. The old timers won’t use it
  15. It’s too hard to administer
  16. Why hasn’t someone else suggested it before?
  17. Let’s form a committee
  18. We should wait until the economy improves
  19. Who else has tried it?
  20. Is it best practice?

Really!  I bet you’ve heard all of these.  Defend & Extend Management becomes so embedded in the culture managers don’t even realize they’ve turned off to new markets and fallen into focusing solely on trying to protect the old.  And as markets shift these phrases never go away – they just maintain Lock-in!

The next time somebody brings you an idea – an innovation – I want you to gauge your reaction.  Before you speak, see if your mind brings you one of these 20.  If so, you’re more dedicated to Lock-in than growth.  You’re stuck in D&E Management.  And that means you need a healthy dose of The Phoenix Principle.  Time to do some scenario planning, dig deeply into competitors, Disrupt those Lock-ins and set up a White Space team to explore new opportunities!  Overcome these objections before they stop you – cold!

False paradox – using the old to justify not doing the new – Microsoft, iPad

(Note: See more about my globally syndicated radio X Zone Radio interview with Rod McConnell in postscript below)

Today the Harvard Business Review blog got to the topic of my early May Forbes article (Microsoft's Dismal Future) with "Microsoft and the Innovator's Paradox."  Unfortunately, painting Microsoft as facing a difficult paradox gives Ballmer and the management team too much credit.  It implies that Defend & Extend behavior is a good tradeoff compared to investing in growth markets.  This isn't really a trade-off because good companies pursue both courses, growing the existing business as long as possible AND investing in new growth markets simultaneously.  Like Google investing in search and ad placement while investing in Android.  Positioning Microsoft as facing a dilemma may sound politically attractive, but is inaccurate.  Microsoft simply needed to do more in growth markets – a problem shared by too many companies.  Instead it spent way too much in sustaining developments – and now is in big trouble.

HBR did not offer much of a solution for Microsoft.  Instead, leaving the impression that it's reasonable to expect "mature" organizations to do more sustaining innovation.  The truncated S curve displayed HBR article ignores the reality that "mature" companies don't extend forever – but rather simply fall into the Swamp of poor returns and eventually disappear into the Whirlpool as growth slows.  And further ignores the horrific cost of sustaining innovation, as we detailed in Microsoft's exorbitant 2009 R&D spending as the company kept pushing Windows 7 and Office 2010 development.  Microsoft really hasn't faced a "paradox" for investing for many years – leadership made a bad decision to keep investing in old markets rather than pursue new ones.

Contrarily, Mediapost.com's Marketing Health column ran a description of how pharmaceutical companies could use iPads to improve the performance of their physician customers and simultaneously market their own products in "Tap Into iPad's Marketing Power."  Using these low cost devices (including Kindle and Cisco's new Cius [Cnet.com "Cisco Introduces New Cius Android Tablet PC"]) is not a "paradox" in investing for growth.  It's additive.  As readers of this blog know, for over a year I've promoted marketers and designers become more proactive in using these new mobile devices.  Only by viewing the new development as a trade-off from doing more of the old marketing does it slow investment in a high growth opportunity.  By looking at the new opportunity as something that takes away from doing more of the old creates an artificial paradox – not a real one.  Companies simply aren't doing enough of what will help them grow – too often choosing the low-return route of doing more of what they know in old markets simply because they understand it better.

PS – Check out my radio interview with Rod McConnel of X Zone Radio about BPs management crisis, and how it
applies to all businesses. Recorded by X-Zone in Canada the show is being syndicated
this weekend across the world to various radio stations. You can find the timing of play, or the podcast version, at the
X-Zone web site
. Download On Apple iTunes here. Download as Podcast here. Or listen on X Zone jukebox here.

PPS – Thanks to Gary Woodill at Brandon-Hall.com for picking up my comments on his Workplace Learning page – "It's the One You Don't See That'll Kill You." He trumpets replacing traditional strategic planning with more scenario planning to better prepare companies for success.  Great article!

To Everyone in America – Happy Independence Day!

Know when to change course – BP, Dell, Microsoft

"Stay the Course" is a popular phrase.  It sounds all macho, and committed to a destiny, to proclaim you must "stay the course."  However, as bnet.com pointed out there are times when "Stay the Course is a Recipe for Disaster." The article calls it "Stay The Course-Itis" (or STCI) for leaders that don't know when it's time to change direction.  We can now see that BP simply drilled one too many deep-water holes in the Gulf – just as Exxon let one too many tipsy captains steer oil vessels before the Valdez crashed.  Staying the course may sound good, but too often the course isn't right.  And a bad course can lead you into disaster.

Take for example Dell.  As reported by The New York Times, and picked up by CNBC.com, "in Suit Over Computers, Window into Dell's Fall," we learn that Dell went just a bit too far in its effort to be a low cost industry supplier.  Hoping desperately to maintain a slight lead in lowering costs, Defending & Extending Dell's long-term Success Formula as industry supply chain leader, Dell simply bought bad parts. It then replaced bad product with more bad product.  Refused to admit to itself that it had gone "too cheap" in its effort to be cheap.  Things went from bad to worse as the Lock-in to keep costs low led to multiple customer disasters – even at the law firm defending Dell in court!  And Michael Dell is being accused of financial irregularities in his effort to make Dell's results possibly look better than they were.  Both corporately and personally leadership made some big mistakes – not unlike BP – in the effort for Dell to "Stay the Course."  

Microsoft certainly isn't without it's STCI as CEO Steve Ballmer keeps dropping new projects to funnel money and other resources into old desktop/laptop products. The Wall Street Journal reported "Microsoft Kills Kin Mobile Less Than Two Months After Launch."  Kin was a product targeted at the hot market for youthful cell phone users.  A double-digit growth market.  But Microsoft is backing out, despite its ballyhooed launch – including announcements to take the product to China very soon.  Microsoft can't seem to do much but "Stay the Course" supporting old products.

Both tech companies have had no improvement in their market value the last decade.  And BP has watched its value drop more than 50% since the spill started.  Some now actively wonder if BP could disappear as SeekingAlpha.com discussed in "How Likely is a BP Takeover bid?" Staying the course in the Gulf, drilling for more oil in deeper water and taking on more risk, could cost BP its existence if another company buys up the discounted equity.  Of course, there is still reason to think BP could get wiped out from the costs of the disaster without a takeover.

Companies can get over SCTI if they follow advice given at ABCNews.com "Reboot Your Small Business by Reinventing."  The article applies to all size businesses, however.  When you see your business doing poorly, especially relative to competitors, it's time to attack sacred cows and do some things differently.  Instead of "doubling down" on the old Success Formula, do new things!

You don't want to end up like BP, Dell or Microsoft today.  Once great companies that are floundering now – struggling to find growth as they continue spending so much energy trying to "Stay the Course."  When the seas are too calm to sail, leaving you stranded with no growth, or the waves are crashing too heavily, as competition is derailing your efforts, why not set a new course?  One that can lead you to better growth?  There's no harm, or shame, in heading where the market is going, using Disruptions and White Space to develop new solutions.  Don't let your ego, pride, or history/legacy push you to "stay the course" when better results can be found in new markets, new customers and new solutions.

PS – Yesterday SmartBrief on Leadership newsletter ran ""For Real Innovation, Pick Up the Phone" linking to the BloggingInnovation.com repost of "It's the One You Don't See That Kills You."  Compliments to Braden Kelley for a great web site, and getting the word out about how important it is to apply innovation! I enjoyed how the newsletter grabbed the conclusion, that businesses need to obtain more outsider input, and ran with it as the title.  better than my title, to be honest!

PPS – PRLog.org just picked up my blog on "Journalism in 2020."  Great to see the media enjoying my comments about their industry, and passing them along through this communication site!