Strategy First: not Execution – Instant Messaging and AOL’s demise


Summary:

  • Not even dominant industry leaders are immune to decline from market shifts
  • It’s easy to focus on what made you great, and miss a market shift
  • Competitors drive market shifts, not customers – so pay attention to competitors!
  • AOL lost industry domination to competitors with new solutions, and now new technologies, even though it executed its Success Formula really well
  • You can become obsolete really quickly when fringe competitors introduce new solutions
  • Do more competitor analysis
  • Keep White Space teams experimenting with emerging solutions and competing in shifting markets

Do you remember when AOL (an acronym, and updated name, for America On-Line) dominated our perception of the internet?  Fifteen years ago AOL was one of the leading companies introducing Americans to the wonders of the web.  Providing dial-up access (remember that?) AOL offered users its own interface, and a series of apps that helped its customers discover how the world wide web could make their lives easier – and better.  At its peak, AOL had over 30 million subscribers!  AOL was so commercially strong, and investors were so optimistic, that a merger with powerhouse publisher Time/Warner, which already owned CNN and HBO, was organized so AOL’s young leader, Steve Case, could take the helm and push the company forward into the digital frontier.

Along the way, something went very wrong. In an example of what happened to AOL and its products, as seen below, after pioneering Instant Messaging as an internet application AOL’s AIM user base has declined precipitously – by more than 50% – in the last 3 years:

AOL instant messager decline 8.10
Source:  BusinessInsider.com

Of course, the same thing that once drove AOL growth is now apparent somewhere else.  New markets are emerging.  Instead of using PCs with instant messaging, most people today text via their mobile device!  Texting isn’t just a youthful activity.  According to Pew Research, on PewInternet.org in “Cell Phones and American Adults” 72% of American adults now text – up from 65% a year ago.  87% of teens text. And I’m willing to bet a lot of those teens don’t even have an instant messaging account – on any platform.  The amount of “instant messaging” has grown dramatically – just not using “instant messaging” software.  It’s now happening via mobile device texting.

Where AOL once dominated the landscape for digital communication, it is now becoming almost insignificant.  But it wasn’t because AOL didn’t know how to execute its strategy.  AOL was an industry leader, with savvy management, and a blue-ribbon Board of Directors.  AOL even bought Netscape in its effort to remain the best server and client technology for a proprietary internet platform. 

AOL became obsolete because the market shifted – while AOL tried holding on to its initial Success Formula.  AOL did not shift as the market shifted, it has remained Locke-in to its early Identity, original Strategy and all those product Tactics that once made it great!  AOL didn’t do anything wrong.  It just kept doing what it knew how to do, rather than recognizing the impact of competitors and changing markets. 

Shortly after AOL emerged as the market leader, competitors sprang up.  First they offered dial-up access, often more cheaply.  Eventually dial-up was replaced with high-speed internet access from multiple providers.  Instead of using a proprietary interface, competitors Netscape and Microsoft brought out their own internet browsers, making it possible for users to surf the web directly and easily.  Instead of using an AOL directory to find things, search engines such as Ask Jeeves, Alta Vista and Yahoo! Search came along that would find things across the web for users based upon their query.  Email alternatives emerged, such as Hotmail and Yahoo! Mail.  Eventually, one piece at a time, all the proprietary packaged products that AOL provided – including instant messaging – was offered by a competitor. And the value of the AOL packaging declined.  As competitor products improved, for most users being an AOL subscriber simply had little advantage.

And now entirely new apps are coming along.  As the market quickly shifts to mobile data and applications, devices like smartphones and tablets are replacing PCs.  And the apps that made internet companies rich and famous are poised for decline – as users shift to the new way of doing things. 

Whether the currently popular internet companies will make the next step, or end up like AOL, will be determined by whether they remain stuck on defending & extending their “core” business, or if they can shift with the market.  There is no doubt that the amount of “instant messaging” is skyrocketing.  It’s just not happening on the PC.  Like many tasks, the demand is growing very fast.  But it is via a new, and different solution.  If the company sees itself as providing a PC type of internet solution, then the company will likely decline.  But, alternatively, the leadership could see that demand is exploding and they need to shift – with the market – to the new solution environment to maintain growth.

Whether you are the market leader or not, you know you don’t want to end up like AOL. Once rich with resources, and a commanding market lead, AOL is now irrelevant to the latest market trends – and growth.  AOL stuck to what it knew how to do.  It has not shifted with changing market requirements – including changes in technology.  For your company to succeed it must be (1) aware of competitors and how they are constantly changing the market – especially fringe competitors, and (2) enlisting White Space teams that are participating in the new markets, learning what works and how to migrate to capture the ongoing growth.

Postscript:  I want to thank a pair of colleagues for some great mentions over the weekend.  Firstly, to FMI Daily for posting to its readership about my blog on The Power of Myth.  Secondly, a big thank you to Management Consulting News for referring its newsletter readers to this blog as notable, and my recent posting on the failure of Fast Follower strategy.  I encourage readers to follow the links here to these sites and sign up for future information from both!!

The End of Management – Wall Street Journal


Summary:

  • The Wall Street Journal is calling for a dramatic shift in how business is managed
  • Most corporations are designed for the industrial age, and thus not well suited for today’s competition
  • Change is happening more quickly, and organizations must become more agile
  • CEOs today are concerned about dealing with rapid, chronic change – and obsolescence
  • Resource deployment, from financial to people, must be tied more closely to market needs and not defending historical strengths

A FANTASTIC article in the Wall Street Journal entitled “The End of Management” by Alan Murray, If you have time, I encourage you to click the link and read the entire thing.  Below are some insightful quotes from the article I hope you enjoy as much as I did:

  • Corporations, whose leaders portray themselves as champions of the free
    market, were in fact created to circumvent that market. They were an
    answer to the challenge of organizing thousands of people in different
    places and with different skills to perform large and complex tasks,
    like building automobiles or providing nationwide telephone service.
  • the managed corporation—an answer to the central problem of the industrial age.
  • Corporations are bureaucracies and managers are bureaucrats. Their
    fundamental tendency is toward self-perpetuation… They were designed and tasked, not with
    reinforcing market forces, but with supplanting and even resisting the
    market.
  • it took radio 38 years and television 13 years to reach audiences of 50
    million people, while it took the Internet only four years, the iPod
    three years and Facebook two years to do the same.
  • It’s no surprise that
    fewer than 100 of the companies in the S&P 500 stock index were
    around when that index started in 1957.
  • When I asked members of The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council… to name the most influential business book they had read,
    many cited Clayton Christensen’s “The Innovator’s Dilemma.” That book
    documents how market-leading companies have missed game-changing
    transformations in industry after industry
  • They allocated capital to the innovations that promised the largest
    returns. And in the process, they missed disruptive innovations that
    opened up new customers and markets for lower-margin, blockbuster
    products.
  • the ability of human beings on different continents and with vastly
    different skills and interests to work together and coordinate complex
    tasks has taken quantum leaps. Complicated enterprises, like maintaining
    Wikipedia or building a Linux operating system, now can be accomplished
    with little or no corporate management structure at all.
  • the trends here are big and undeniable. Change is rapidly accelerating.
    Transaction costs are rapidly diminishing. And as a result, everything
    we learned in the last century about managing large corporations is in
    need of a serious rethink. We have both a need [for]… a new science of
    management, that can deal with the breakneck realities of 21st century
    change.
  • The new model will have to be more like the marketplace, and less like
    corporations of the past. It will need to be flexible, agile, able to
    quickly adjust to market developments, and ruthless in reallocating
    resources to new opportunities.
  • big companies… failed, not…
    because they didn’t see the coming innovations, but because they failed
    to adequately invest in those innovations
    . To avoid this problem, the
    people who control large pools of capital need to act more like venture
    capitalists, and less like corporate finance departments… make lots of bets, not just a few big ones, and… be willing
    to cut their losses.
  • have to push power and decision-making down the organization as much as
    possible, rather than leave it concentrated at the top. Traditional
    bureaucratic structures will have to be replaced with something more
    like ad-hoc teams of peers, who come together to tackle individual
    projects, and then disband
  • New mechanisms will have to be created for harnessing the “wisdom of
    crowds.” Feedback loops will need to be built that allow products and
    services to constantly evolve in response to new information. Change,
    innovation, adaptability, all have to become orders of the day.

Well said.  Traditional management best practices were designed for the industrial age.  For bringing people together to efficiently build planes, trains and automobiles.  This is now the information age.  Organizations must be more agile, more flexible, and tightly aligned with market needs – while eschewing focus on “core” capabilities. 

Companies must understand Lock-in, and how to manage it.  Instead of planning for yesterday to continue, we must develop future scenarios and prepare for different likely outcomes.  We have to understand competitors, and how quickly they can move to rob us of sales and profits.  We have to be willing to disrupt our patterns of behavior, and our markets, in order to drive for higher value creation.  And we must understand that constantly creating and implementing White Space teams that are focused on new opportunities is a key to long-term success.

With an endorsement for change from nothing less than the stodgy Wall Street Journal, perhaps more leaders and managers will begin moving forward, implementing The Phoenix Principle, so they can recapture a growth agenda and rebuild profitability.

Shift Happens – Fast – telephony


Summary:

  • Trends happen much faster than we expect
  • Old solutions disappear much faster than we anticipate
  • Early adopters are big winners, suppliers who expect markets to last longer are killed in end-stage price wars
  • We can anticipate the failure of land line phones in just a few years (as declining demand makes infrastructure maintenance too costly)
  • There are a lot of other changes coming very quickly, more quickly than many of us anticipate – putting those who are late to change at risk of survival

How long do you think you’ll keep a land-line based telephone?  From the looks of things, it may be only another year or two.  They may be as popular as an old-fashioned printing press in just 5 years.

Land line wireless substitution 6.10
Source:  Silicon Alley Insider from BusinessInsider.com

As the chart shows, already about a third of Americans have discontinued their land lines.  And, we can see the trend is accelerating.  This doesn’t count people that have one, but have quit using it.  From about half of a percent dropping their line each quarter early in 2007, by 2009 the trend had increased to 1.2 to 1.5 percent dropping their land lines quarterly.  And that’s normal – trends accelerate – much faster than incumbent technology suppliers predict.

Mobile phones started out with limited use.  They were big, and had short battery life.  It was sketchy if transmission quality would be good enough to hear or talk.  They were expensive to use, and had limited service areas.  In the early days, only people who had a big need used them.  It took a few years before adoption grew to where most people had one.  But then, in the last 5 years, it has become clear that almost everyone has one.  Even the old and elderly.  And many people have two – one for personal and one for business. 

When trends begin they are easy to discount.  Early versions are less good than the current solution.  Costs are high.  But early adopters have a reason to pick up the new solution.  There is some kind of unmet need that the solution fits.  From that small base, the products improve.  Most incumbent suppliers plot out a linear curve adoption curve, and expect dropping of the old solution to be some time way out in the future.

But improvements to the “fringe” solution come faster than incumbents – and even big users of incumbent technologies – expect.  Adoption starts growing faster.  Yet, the incumbent supplier will listen to big customers and expect people to keep their solutions for a long time as they gradually adopt the new:

  • People will have an automobile, but they’ll hang onto the horse and buggy because roads are so poor
  • He may buy a new copier, but he’ll keep the mimeo machine “just in case”
  • Folks will get a phone, and email, but they’ll keep writing letters and thus need a postman daily
  • People may buy refrigerators, but they’ll keep the icebox and want weekly ice delivery
  • Readers will skim the web for news, but they’ll want to keep reading a daily newspaper
  • PCs will be popular, but folks will hang onto that old typewriter “maybe to type envelopes or something”
  • Installing spreadsheets on company PC’s will not eliminate the need for adding machines “for when we need the tape”
  • Digital cameras will be convenient, but users will want the film camera for picture prints
  • Installing a DVR will not eliminate the videocassette player because people “still may want to watch old tapes some day”
  • People will keep their cassette players, and DVD players, even as they buy a new MP3 player because they will want to listen to the purchased collections

Actually, once someone adopts the new solution, they rapidly find no need for the old solution.  It goes to the closet, and then the trash, quickly.  And from a market perspective, once a third to a half the customers quit using a product it will disappear from use almost overnight.  From that perspective, those who depend upon traditional land line phones have plenty to worry about.  Because we’re near a third.  And smart phones keep adding more capability every month – the iPhone now has almost 300,000 apps, and Android phones have over 100,000!  It’s easy to see where the functionality, ease of use and ubiquitousness of mobile phones could make the old land line a waste of money within just 24 months!

So, what will happen to bill collectors and political phone ads (robocalls), when we quit using land lines?  Along with the loss of land lines is the loss of the traditional phone book to find people.  When will the cost of maintaining the poles and lines become so high, relative to the number of users, that we simply take them down to recycle the material?  Lots of things change when growth begins to decline for land-lines, causing the decline to happen more quickly.  And changing how we all get things done – as consumers and as businesses.  Are you prepared?

The tendency is to think change will happen slowly.  It doesn’t.  When markets shift it happens quickly.  Much more quickly than the entrenched competitor expects.  The “experts” always say the demand for the old will last much longer than happens.  He hopes to have a long life, clipping coupons, across a “maturing” market.  Instead, demand falls rapidly and remaining competitors go into price wars trying to stay alive – hoping the market will some day return to the old way of doing things.  Those who didn’t anticipate the shift rapidly run out of cash, and fail. 

Are you ready for impending market shifts?  How prepared are you for a world where

  • We don’t print anything, because everyone has some kind of on-line digital document reader.  Not just books and magazines, but user instructions, warranty info, etc.
  • We don’t need cash because we can Paypal transact anything using our smartphone
  • Doctors can monitor all your vital statistics real time, remotely, 24x7x365.  Manufacturers can monitor use of their products 24x7x365
  • So much retail is on-line that the amount of retail floor space declines 40%
  • You can regrow a finger, or organ, if it is damaged
  • Television and radio aren’t serially broadcast, you organize what you want when you want it.  There are no “commercials” in content delivery
  • The primary way of communicating with friends and colleagues is Facebook and Twitter – forget text except for only very private communications

5 Reasons You Should NOT buy GM stock – General Motors


Summary:

  • GM is replacing its CEO and preparing to sell equity to the public
  • Don’t buy the stock.  GM will not be a market winner

GM reports $1.3 billion in Q2 profits, Preps for Stock Sale” is the Detroit News headline.  So, are you interested in buying some GM shares?  If you do, can I interest you in a bridge I have for sale???

In addition to reporting 2 consecutive positive cash flow quarters, the CEO Ed Whitacre announced he’s leaving the post to be replaced by a different telecommunications executive, Don Akerson.  Are you excited?

There are at least xx reasons NOT to buy GM shares:

  1. The company lost market share last year.  It’s slide from dominance has not stopped.  It has less than half the market share it had just 2 decades ago.
  2. GM lost $12.9 billion in the same quarter last year.  There is no doubt the company brought forward costs last year to worsen the financials, thus making them look better than they should be now.  Financial machinations are common in poorly performing companies, especially around bankruptcies
  3. The departing CEO, and the incoming CEO, are retired telecom execs.  How many successful (meaning growing revenues profitably) telecom companies do you know?  Now wait a minute…. right. 
  4. To hit revenue targets GM increased fleet sales.  Interpret that as chasing low-margin business for volume.  It also means selling on price, not the desirability of the products to end users.
  5. GMs pension funds are underfunded to the tune of some $26 billion.  When will they fulfill it? 

GM hit a growth stall in the 1970s.  Since then the company has steadily lost market share while watching profitability deteriorate to nothing.  Fewer than 7% of companies ever consistently grow a mere 2% after a stall, and there’s nothing saying GM will be in that exceptional group.

GM downsized its exciting brands.  Chevrolet is about as exciting as…..  The big “hit” car is a re-release of the Camaro – a car that was successful way about 40 years ago.  GM isn’t a leader in any new car segments, or new technologies. 

GM has no White Space.  It is run by retirees that really should go to Florida – year round.  They keep trying to do what worked for their personal careers 30 years ago – and not what will make a company succeed today.  There isn’t a single thing about GM that would make me want to own it. 

Go buy Apple.  There you get innovation, growth, new markets and a leader in several segments. 

Sour Lemons, or Lemonade? – Playboy, Singer


Playboy’s Circulation drops 34%” is the Chicago Tribune headline.  Is anyone surprised?  If ever there was a brand, and business, that was out of step with current markets it has to be Playboy.  That the business still exists is a wonder.  But let’s spend a few minutes to see why Playboy has fallen on hard times, and what the alternative might have been – and could still be.

The Playboy Success Formula is really clear.  Since founded by Hugh Hefner, the company has focused on titillating the male libido with a magazine that focused on pictures of naked women, videos of same (physical videos, on-line videos and television), radio talk shows about sex, and alternative lifestyle issues such as recreational drug use.  At one time this was unique, and in a male dominated 1960s it was even tolerated. Although never mainstream, the business was very profitable early in its lifecycle.  Thus the founder kept doing more of the same, building a small empire and eventually taking the company public.

But the market shifted.  Larry Flint and others ushered in a new era of pornography altering the market for prurient, sexually oriented material.  Women in the workforce – and I’d like to think a heavy dose of decency – made public toleration of such material unacceptable.  You couldn’t read a Playboy at work, or on the airplane, and you wouldn’t have a business lunch at their clubs.  Other magazines sprung up to deal with men’s interests in automobiles, clothing, music, sports, etc. in a more acceptable – and for most people more significant and intelligent – manner.  Other lifestyle publications were developed that discussed illicit drug use and non-traditional ways of life more directly, explicitly and with greater advocacy.  The advent of cable TV and then the internet increasingly made access to the key features of Playboy’s product readily available, very inexpensive (often free) and targeted at niche audiences. 

Yet, despite these many market changes, Playboy’s founder and his daughter, the company CEOs for 40+ years, steadfastly stuck to their old Success Formula.  They kept thinking that people wanted those “bunny eared” products.  They talked a lot about the heritage of Playboy, how it broke ground in so many markets, and opened the door for lots of new competitors.  But they kept doing what the company always did – including foisting upon us the ever aging founder as a “role model” for male menopause and the anti-family aged entrepreneur.   Playboy today is what it always was – and there simply aren’t a whole lot of people with much interest in those products any more.  Nobody mismanaged the brand, the market just walked away from it.  Sort of like the demand for Geritol.

Playboy focused on its core.  And now its on the edge of bankruptcy.  The company keeps outsourcing more and more of the work, as the staff has dropped to nearly nothing, cutting costs everywhere possible.  Sales continue to decline, and the brand looks like it will soon join Polaroid and Woolworths on the heap of once famous but floundered companies.  Playboy’s fatal mistake wasn’t that it was started as a prurient men’s magazine – but rather that for 40 years its leadership kept Defending & Extending that original Success Formula despite rather dramatic market shifts.  Now, today, Playboy is a sour lemon that not many a marketer would want to be stuck promoting.

But – it didn’t have to be that way.  Just imagine if you’d been given control of Playboy 30 years ago.  What could you have done?

As soon as Hustler hit the newsstands, and the first women’s right protests developed – including the early push for the Equal Rights Amendment – it was clear that the future of the magazine was in jeopardy.  Instead of doing “more of the same” could you have considered something else?

The growth of women in the workforce meant a lot of new opportunities.  Why not jump onto that bandwagon?  If you’re really at the forefront of “lifestyle” issues, as the leadership claimed, then you would have identified that women in the workforce meant something new was brewing – a group of consumers that would have more cash, and more influence.  And not only would that be an appealing market, but so would the men who would be adjusting to new lifestyle issues as homes became dominated by 2-worker leadership.

Playboy was well positioned to be Victoria’s Secret. At a time before anybody else was really thinking about a significant market for attractive and comfortable lingerie Playboy certainly had the leading edge.  Or, even more likely, the water carrying publication for Dr. Ruth-style discussions about sexuality.  There was an emerging market for information targeted at increasingly affluent women about automobiles, stereos, apartments, resume writing, job hunting and even at-work etiquette — all topics that had been the dominant discussion areas for Playboy’s historically male readership.  Had the leadership at Playboy opened its eyes, and scanned the horizon for growth markets being developed as a result of the trends which were negatively impacting it, these leaders would have been able to create a bevy of scenarios that were filled with opportunities for growth.

It’s hard to imagine today Playboy being anything else.  But all that stopped stopped Playboy’s evolution was a commitment to its “core” – to its old Success Formula.  That the CEO for over 20 years was a well educated woman is testament to the power of “core” philosophy versus a willingness to look at market opportunities.  By keeping Playboy’s Success Formula tightly aligned with her father’s founding ideas she quite literally led the company into smaller and smaller sales with less and less profit.  The big loser was, of course, investors.  Playboy is worth very little today as Mr. Hefner hints at making a bid to take the company private once again. 

Singer was once a sewing machine company.  But when Japanese products surpassed Singer’s product capabilities and achieved a cost advantage in the 1970s, Singer leadership converted Singer into a defense contractor.  And Singer went on to multiply its value before being acquired by General Dynamics.  

IBM was an office machine company famous for mechanical typewriters and adding machines.  The founder said he would never enter computers.  Fortunately for employees and shareholders the founder’s son took the company into computers and the company flourished as competitive typewriter companies such as Smith Corona – stuck on the core business – disappeared.

There’s a time for lemons – in your tea or on a salad.  But when markets shift, lemons just turn sour.  If you want to succeed long-term you have to shift with markets.  And that might well mean making significant change.  Adding water and sugar to the lemons is a good start – as lemonade is less about lemons than what you’ve added to it.  After you open that lemonade stand, see where the market leads you

No matter where you start, every day offers the opportunity to head toward new, emerging markets.  No matter what your historical “core” you can literally become any business you want to become.  Coke was founded by a pharmacist who wanted to boost counter sales in his store – and it was worth a lot more than the pills he was constructing.  Those who develop scenarios about the future prepare for market shifts, understand the competitive changes and use them to identify the opportunities for a new future.  Then they use White Space teams to move the business into a new Success Formula.  Anybody can do it.  You could even have remade Playboy.  So what’s the plan for the future of your business?  More of the same …. or …..

Better get an outside opinion – Tribune Corporation, Barnes & Noble, Harley Davidson


Blame Piles Up in Tribune Cos. 2007 Buyout” is the Chicago Tribune headline.  After months of research the bankruptcy judge has released a court ordered report on the transaction that left Tribune Corporation insolvent.  Apparently, lots of people were aware that ad demand was falling like a stone.  And that there was little hope it would recover.  But selling executives shopped for a valuation company until they found one willing to say that management’s projections were plausible.  Of course, they weren’t.  The transition from print to digital was well along, and the projections were never going to happen. 

What’s more startling is the hubris of Sam Zell to close the deal.  Apparently he too had doubts about the forecasts, but he went ahead and borrowed all that money to close.  That he would ignore all the market signals, and plenty of opportunities to obtain outsider input on the likely continued demise of newspaper ads, shows he wanted to close.  He wanted to control Tribune Corporation.  Even if it would cost him $300m.

Success Formulas are very powerful.  And successful entrepreneurs often have them so locked-in that there’s no other consideration.  Success, and personal fortunes, causes them to ignore external data, and external opinions, when they fly in the face of their historical Success Formula.  They want to apply it to a new business, and they are ready to go!  So damn the torpedos!  Full speed ahead! 

It’s too bad that our hero worship of successful entrepreneurs too often leaves them insufficiently challenged.  Unfortunately, a lot of people got hurt in the calamity that is now the Tribune Corporation bankruptcy.  Employees have lost pay, benefits and jobs.  Chicagoans have seen the paper get even smaller, and the amount of local news coverage decline.  And the city’s reputation has certainly not benefited. 

As much as people despise consultants, it would seem that Mr. Zell would have been a lot smarter to ask some bright strategists what the future was for the newspaper before abetting the close of such an onerous, and destructive, transaction.  Outsiders, including consultants, are valuable at pointing out the range of potential outcomes – not just the one that fits your Success Formula.  That’s why successful organizations use outsiders to help develop scenarios and study competitors, as well as design Disruptions and establish White Space projects.  Outsiders can help overcome Lock-in to historical assumptions, biases, prejudice and viewpoints in order to reduce failures and improve success.

And this is some advice hopefully Leonard Riggio will heed.  “Barnes & Noble Considering Sale of Company; Possible Buyers Include Founder Leonard Riggio” is the Chicago Tribune headline.  Barnes & Noble as an acquisition looks a lot like Tribune did 3 years ago.  Product sales (printed books) are in a free-fall as people choose alternative products – especially digital books and journals.  Books themselves are struggling to avoid obsolescence as digital publishing makes shorter format more valuable in many instances.  Brick and mortar shops focused on printed material – from bookstores to magazine/news stands – have been failing for 10 years – and in fact overall brick and mortar retail across the board has declined the last 4 years as internet retailing has grown.  The leading competitor (Amazon) has led the transition to digital, and is competing with an enormously successful tech company (Apple) for the future of digital publishing.  Barnes & Noble may have a fledgling product, but it’s about as competitive as a junior leaguer compared to someone on the Yankees! 

The Success Formula of Barnes & Noble, as created by the original founder, is obsolete.  And B&N is not in the game for where the marketplace is headed.  Just because he knew the business once, years ago, gives the founder no leg-up on resurrecting the company.  Contrarily, his background is a decided negative as he’s likely to attempt a “throwback” strategy.  Since the world goes forward, never backward, those simply don’t work.  We could expect lots of store closings, layoffs and inventory reductions – but the future of publishing has radically changed and will continue doing so, and B&N has little input on that outcome.  Amazon, Apple and Google (the largest purveyor of digital words through its search engine) are the giants in this game and B&N will get crushed.

And the city of Milwaukee should consider hiring some consultants, as should Harley Davidson.  “In Quest for Lower Cost Harley-Davidson Considers Leaving Milwaukee after 107 years” reports Chicago Tribune.  Harley would like subsidies, from its workers (unions) as well as the city and state, to keep from moving its factories.  But Harley’s problems are far worse than hourly wages for plant workers, and everyone needs to be careful not to get sucked into a Tribune Corp. deal of trying to save a floundering ship.

Harley Davidson’s product has been largely unchanged for a very long time.  Despite all the hoopla about tattooed customers, for 30 years competitors Honda, Suzuki, Kawasaki and Yamaha have been innovating and running circles around Harley.  Their businesses have grown. Not only by dramatically expanding their motorcycle products, but adding ATVs, snowmobiles, boat engines, automobiles, electric generators, yard equipment and a raft of other products (Honda even makes a commercial airplane!)  They have brought in millions of new customers, while Harley’s customer base is eroding – largely dying off as the average age of buyers has risen to well over 50!!

While competitors have pushed forward with new technology and products, and developed new markets and customers, Harley has tried standing still.  So, its now an historical anachronism.  Interesting to look at, and with some intriguing niches, but not really important to the industry.  Should Harley disappear nobody in the motorcycle business will really notice, because almost every competitor now has a Harley-inspired v-twin motorcycle they can sell.  Few people realize that most dealers make more money selling jackets and other Harley-Licensed gear/apparel than motorcycles! Harley’s days have been numbered since they let the v-Rod, a motorcycle with a Porsche engine, languish in dealer showrooms – allowing their “customers” to keep them locked-in to aging technology at ever rising prices (they typical Harley prices for over 2x the price of a comparable Japanese produced motorcycle.) Harley should have paid more attention to competitors a long time ago (instead of deriding them as “rice burners”) and a lot less attention to those very loyal – but diminishing in numbers – dealers and end-use customers.

All 3 of these companies, Tribune, Barnes & Noble and Harley-Davidson have great pasts.  But the risk is thinking that means anything about the future.  Tribune was fatally harmed by adding debt to a company that needed to refocus on new internet markets, then continuing to try to keep the old Success Formula operating.  Barnes & Noble is the last prominent brick and mortar book retailer, but there is little reason to think there will be a need for them in just 5 years.  And Harley-Davidson every year appeals to a smaller group of buyers in a niche market with aged technology and a tiring brand.  In all cases, caveat emptor! (Let the buyer beware!)  Before accepting any management forecasts, it would be a good idea to get some external opinions!

Look to New Markets to Grow- RIM, Apple, Google, Kraft


Blackberry’s Era May Be Ending” is the New York Times title on a Reuter’s story about the pioneering leader in smartphones.  That RIM is in trouble is undoubtedly true – so much so it will not likely survive as a stand-alone company, if it survives at all!  The company is in a growth stall, with U.S. market share in the first quarter dropping to 41% from 55% last year.  Selling cheaply priced products outside the U.S. has masked the deep revenue problem developing at RIM – as the company tries to convince investors that it really isn’t falling way behind new competitors. 

It was just April 8 when I published  on this blog “Enterprise Customer Risk” in which I described how Blackberry’s ongoing focus on corporate customers allowed it to fall far behind in the applications development area ( see the 2 critical charts in previous blog showing the application weakness as well as market share problems).  Now Apple has 30 TIMES the number of apps available on the Blackberry.  On January 10 in “Winners and Losers from Shifts” this blog posted a chart showing how Apple hit 1 billion application downloads in its first 14 months of iPhone sales.  Two weeks ago MediaPost.com reported “Android Hits 1 Billion Downloads.”  Android now has about 100,000 apps, while Apple has about 225,000 apps.  RIM doesn’t even have 10,000 apps. 

RIM made a huge mistake.  It focused on its core market of enterprise Blackberry customers.  It tried to Defend its historical market share by focusing on its historical customers – and ignoring the smartphone non-user markets being developed by Apple (and now Google.)  As a result it’s price/earnings multiple has fallen to 10 – amidst clear indications that RIM is unlikely to ever regain much growth as this growth stall continues.

We might like to think this sort of rapid problem creation is limited to technology companies.  Unfortunately, not so.  Crain’s Chicago Business today reports that “Kraft Foods Sees Slowdown in U.S. Cookie and Cracker Sales, Complicating CEO Rosenfeld’s Growth Agenda.”  Kraft has had no measurable organic growth for over a decade, nor successful entries into new markets.  The last year Kraft’s CEO demonstrated no commitment to organic growth by putting all her energy into the acquisition of Cadbury in order to expand Kraft’s “core” market position – dominated by Oreo, Chips Ahoy, Ritz Crackers and Wheat Thins.  But now sales for the last quarter in the historical business are down 3.8%!

Kraft is another example of what happens when a company hits a growth stall.  It may have a few up periods, but overall it is 93% likely to never again consistently grow at a mere 2%!  Defend & Extend management uses obfuscation, like acquisitions, to hide underlying problems in the company’s ability to meet changing market needs.  Resources are poured into price cutting promotions and advertising, looking only at the marginal cost and the initial sales, which props up the over-spending on worn out products in a worn-out Success Formula – and in Kraft’s case even these aren’t able to keep customers buying brands that are over 50 years aged.  Ms. Rosenfeld will try to keep everyone’s attention on the top-line, hoping they forget that “growth” was manufactured by acquisition and that in fact both sales and margins are deteriorating in the “core” brands.

So, are you still trying to find your growth in this “Great Recession” by doing more of what you’ve always done – hoping customers will for some reason flock to your old way of doing business?  That, quite frankly, has almost no hope of working.  Customers are looking for new solutions every day.  If you focus on protecting old markets, maybe by asking old customers what to do, you’ll miss the emergence of new markets where underserved customers are creating all the growthIf you don’t have plans to expand your business by 20% or more in new markets across the next 2 years you have more chance of burning up your resources than growing – and you might well end up like GM, FAO Schwarz or Sharper Image!

End of the Road – Sara Lee, BP


According to Crain’s Chicago BusinessSara Lee Looks to Sell Bread Business.” Large investors seem to support the sale, hoping this will expedite a take-over by a larger consumer goods company or a privage equity firm.  They hope the sale of this laggard company will finally bail them out of a bad investment.  Should either takeover happen, Sara Lee would likely cease to exist as a company.  Most employees would lose their jobs, more products “streamlined” into the dustbin, and another Chicago headquarters would disappear. 

Since taking the helm in 2005 CEO Brenda Barnes has systematically dismantled Sara Lee.  Then a $19B company, Sara Lee has shrunk by almost 50% to just over $10B.  From 2005 to 2009, as asset sales dominated management attention, value declined by 75%, from $20/share to $5.  On the hope of high values for the asset balance as the company is shopping its very existence, value has risen to $15/share – a 25% decline from the starting point.  Hard to call that “excellent” CEO performance.

Sara Lee leadership was so focused on trying to Defend & Extend legacy business models that when they didn’t improve the business was sold.  Year by year, Sara Lee got smaller.  And the end of the road looks to be the end of Sara Lee.  Customers lost  many products, with almost no new product introductions to replace them.  Employees had almost no growth opportunities as the company shrank.  Suppliers saw margins shrink as they were beat upon to lower prices.  And investors have suffered losses.  There is no “winner” at the end of the road for Defend & Extend Management.  When the company moves into the Whirlpool little is said as the remnants slip away.

Today we are fascinated by BP’s effort to cap the Deepwater Horizon oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico.  Will it work?  Everyone certainly hopes so.  But what will it mean for BP if the leak is capped?  Unfortunately, precious little.

The New York Times reported recently “In BP’s Record: A History of Boldness and Costly Blunders.” In classic Defend & Extend behavior, Tony Hayward early on implemented a “back to basics” campaign to “refocus” BP on its “core strengths.”  These are all warning signs. When management looks backward, it is not looking forward.  Taking “bold action” to “do what the company has always done best” is simply using euphemisms to ignore added risk in effort to protect a Success Formula with declining value.  People feel pushed to improve performance by constant optimization – including a lot of cost cutting.  And cost cutting leads to blunders.

BP is far from the Whirlpool.  But things don’t look good for BP.  As Forbes published in “BP’s Only Hope for Its Future” BP has to change its direction pretty remarkably or it’s employees, investors, suppliers and customers could find out BP has a long way yet to fall.  Drilling ever riskier wells, in riskier places, for less reserves is not a long-term viable Success Formula.

Go to Jail? – RICO, BP, Enron, Worldcom


What do Tony Hayward, Jeff Skilling and Bernard Ebbers possibly have in common?  They all might end up convicted felons

While this may sound ridiculous, and very, very scary to corporate CEOs, nobody expected Skilling, the CEO of Enron, or Ebbers, the CEO of Worldcom, to go to jail.  They were hailed as heros, and admired for their leadership of large, high growth companies.  Yet, Ebbers is waiting out a 25 year sentence, convicted of acting illegally in the value destruction at Worldcom (CNNMoney.comEbbers Gets 25 Years.”)  And Skilling is working on a 24 year sentence for the downfall of Enron (CNNMoney.comSkilling Gets 24 Years.”)

Now, BusinessWeek.com is asking if the same fate awaits Tony Hayward in “The Oil Spill:  Will BP Face Criminal Charges?  As the spill goes on and on, and the damages increase, the public sentiment against BP is increasing.  If the spill goes around Florida to the east coast there will be millions more citizens, and businesses, affected.  It is clear that many laws were broken, as the article lays out.  So it’s not a mute question that an aggressive prosecutor would go after imprisoning Hayward.

As reprehensible as many may find each of these 3 men, how did they end up facing criminal prosecution?  Even The Washington Post has asked Did Jeff Skilling Do Anything Illegal?  A Harvard MBA and former McKinsey partner, Mr. Skilling calmly described the practices at Enron completely unapologitically. He was certain he’d done nothing wrongMr. Ebbers was a devout Christian and Sunday School teacher who claimed all through the trial and to reporters on the way to jail he’d done nothing wrong.  I’m sure Mr. Hayward believes similarly.

What all 3 did was simply push the Success Formula too far.  Worldcom, Enron and BP were wildly successful companies.  They created Success Formulas that earned billions of dollars.  For years they grew.  But unfortunately, they kept trying to push the Success Formula to better results when market shifts left that formula earning lower returns.  Rather than recognize that lower returns were an indication of a Success Formula needing change, they dug in their heals and “got creative” in Defending & Extending it.  They used “best practices” to lower costs, and to seek out financial machinations which would allow the business to look more profitable – even as they undertook more, and more risk. 

To them, taking risk rather than change the Success Formula wasn’t thought of as risk.  They were out to protect something they felt had to be protected, at all cost.  The Success Formula that had made money for years, enriching not only themselves but investors, employees and suppliers.  They were blind to the added risk, because it was assumed that doing incrementally more was the “right thing to do” for the company.  They were doing what they believed were “best practices” for the “health” of their companies.

Defending a Success Formula can become very risky, as I wrote in ForbesBP’s Only Hope For Its Future.”  Years of doing the same thing, only more, better, faster, cheaper, makes it harder and harder to do something different.  The culture and decision-making systems are designed, and modified — Locked-in — to push employees to make the same decision over and over, regardless of risk.  In BPs case we now know that cheaper parts and practices were employed to improve profitability – something each employee felt was in the company’s best interest.  Only, in the end, it served to layer risk upon risk – and lead to an eventual disaster.

Are you “doubling down” on risk in your business?  Are you investing more and more into trying to improve returns in a business that is earning less and less – and growing less and less?  If so, you could be setting yourself up for disaster as well.  Let’s hope in doing so you don’t run afoul of the law.  25 years in prison is a hefty price to pay for spending too much energy “focused on your core” business at a time when you should be looking for new ways to expand and grow where the risks are less.

Don’t Depend on Past Success – Microsoft, Apple and Google

"Google Bans Use of Microsoft Company-Wide" is the headline on HuffingtonPost.com.  The reason given is that Microsoft had too many security issues.  This could be easily dismissed as a competitive trick.  Except for a couple of facts:

  1. Microsoft does have a number of security issues.  It's not just Google that's worried about the problems encountered when relying on Microsoft products.  While Microsoft is the gorilla, it does have problems.
  2. Today their are very reasonable alternatives.  Fifteen years ago Scott McNeely at Sun Microsystems tried to enforce the same discipline as Google. Only there ware no good alternatives to Windows and Office.  That has now changed. Significantly.

As Microsoft has lost share in all its products, it is worth noting that a leading-edge tech company is able to enforce, successfully, a ban on their products.  Aided by the fact that they can offer alternatives which are easy to use and better meet many user requirements today.  This is not good news for investors, employees, suppliers and customers of Microsoft.  A serious shift to alternative solutions has emerged, and Microsoft has given no indication it is participating in the shift.

The impact is amplified by SeekingAlpha.com's article "Apple's Growing Corporate Market Share." Like many businesses in a leading market share position, Microsoft has simply accepted that customers will keep buying their products.  But their near-monopoly is increasingly threatened as organizations realize there are very real alternatives.  Not just from Google, but from Apple as well as others.  As companies recognize that PCs are failing faster, and as managers are displeased by Microsoft requirements that they upgrade software with new purchases, corporate customers are looking for alternatives.  This can be easily dismissed as the behavior of a few "odd-balls."  But increasingly such behavior is becoming mainstream.  While Microsoft is busy forcing customers to upgrade, many companies are looking for greater stability and satisfaction with their information technology suppliers – including Microsoft replacements.

While Microsoft keeps struggling to maintain its customers, sales and share in its old business, Apple keeps moving forward.  This week SeekingAlpha.com also reports "Apple Hits 10,000 iPad Apps, Doubling in the Past Six Weeks."  Again, this might be easy to ignore for Microsoft (or status quo) fans.  But as the app library keeps building Apple keeps building a bigger advantage over everyone – including MicrosoftWhat do we think the future holds – a world full of laptops (as we know it today) or a lot more tablets and similar smart devices?  Increasingly, Microsoft is Defending its past position in the face of a tsunami of innovation for new solutions gaining adoption, and growing, very, very rapidly.

When you're the market leader it is easy to ignore competitors.  To dismiss them as "fringe" with "small share" and "not important."  But that is very risky.  Markets can shift really fast.  New competitors offer new solutions, and they allow customers to do new things.  They give customers new choices, and often customers who are less than thrilled with current solutions will switch.  As competitors make it easy to do new things, the customers switch even faster.  Before long the unexpected can happen, and leadership can switch very quickly.  Like Apple's market share in mobile devices exceeding that of Microsoft's – or Apple's cash hoard exceeding the market value of Dell (a supply chain partner of Microsoft). 

Microsoft is offering a real-time lesson to business leaders.  Planning your future based upon your past strengths is dangerousSmart competitors can offer alternatives faster than you think – and create market shifts that leave you in the lurch quickly.  It's a high-risk strategy to think you can succeed by Defending you past position when alternatives are on the horizon.

PS – ChannelInsider.com today published "Spotlight: 10 Things Tablet Computer Makers Must Do To Take On iPad." Item 5 is "Windows Won't Make Much Sense" Item 4 is "Chrome O/S Does Make Sense" Item 3 is "Give Android O/S Consideration".  For Microsoft this is a set of recommendations that cannot sit well. The market for laptops is predicted to peak and begin declining as users shift to smaller, easier products like tablets. The market pundits, as they recommend new products, are moving away from Microsoft products.  How long can Microsoft continue its focus on Defending Windows and Office?