by Adam Hartung | Apr 19, 2010 | Current Affairs, Disruptions, In the Rapids, In the Whirlpool, Lock-in, Web/Tech
Is news dying, or are newspapers dying? That's a critical question. Most of us know the demand for news is not dying – and if you needed reinforcement a recent McKinsey & Company study verified that the demand for news has increased (McKinsey Quarterly "A Glimmer of Hope for Newspapers"). And a lot of the increase comes from people under 35 who are escalating their news demands. Of course, most of this increase is coming from the web and mobile media.
Too often, however, we don't see our business growing. Instead, Lock-in to old definitions make us think our business is shrinking when it is actually doing the opposite! And that's the Re-invention Gap. Manufacturers of small printing presses said demand was declining in the 1970s, when in fact demand for copies was exploding. Only the explosion was from xerography instead of presses. So A.B. Dick and Multigraphics, small offset press manufacturers, went out of business when demand for the output of their product was exploding! The market shifted, but it kept growing, and they missed the shift.
Today we see this behavior in most news publishers. Those who print newspapers and magazines are talking about how horrible business is. Only the demand for news is growing more quickly than ever. It's just not demand for print, which arrives too late for many customers. And because print is too slow a distribution method for these customers, advertisers are abandoning print as well. But only if you're Locked-in to printing do you say the market is horrible. Because with demand for news growing, if you reposition yourself to serve the growing part of the market you should say business is great!
Tribune Corporation, owner of The Chicago Tribune newspaper is still in bankruptcy. And its future relies entirely on how well it will serve the needs of on-line news readers. According to Crain's Chicago Business, in "Former Sports Editor Bill Adee Steers Chicago Tribune's On-line Strategy" print advertising revenues fell by 9% versus last year in the most recent quarter. And according to a quoted investment banker, nobody would have much interest in the value of a print newspaper. That business is destined to keep declining.
But simultaneously the volume of on-line ads tripled! And that's what a business has to do to cross its Re-invention Gap. It has to move from the old business into the new business – from the declining elements of its business into the growth elements.
What most businesses do wrong is try to apply their old business model to the new business. The old Success Formula has Lock-ins to metrics, schedules, processes, frequent decisions, decision-makers, strategic plans, etc. which the leadership tries to apply to the new business. For example, most newspapers are used to selling ads for several thousand dollars, based upon the number of subscribers. These are pretty large price points. But on-line, ads are sold per page view or per click. Now we're talking pennies sometimes. And to make money, you have to get a lot of views. Likewise, newspapers work on a 24 hour cycle of news accumulation and publishing, whereas the internet is 24×7 with the opportunity to change headlines and what's reported continuously. If a newspaper tries to apply the old Success Formulas related to sales, pricing and editorial process they fail.
And that's why crossing the re-invention gap requires a big Disruption. You have to get the organization to understand that while you are managing the old business, it is destined to eventually go under. So you have to be prepared to Disrupt the Lock-ins, to discover a new way to do the business. And that can only happen if there is a White Space team dedicated to building a business the way the new marketplace will pay for it. Totally separated from the old business. And exactly the opposite of what Tribune is doing by placing the team in the middle of the old newsroom!
At Tribune, one of the big problems is not only the ad pricing model and news scheduling, but the fact that the leadership is still trying to drive content like they did at the newspaper. Over a decade ago Tribune took a direction of accumulating less news on its own, and as a result it republished lots of content. But now on the internet republishing (or content aggregation as it is called on-line) is far less valuable because readers can go to the source. There are thousands and thousands of aggregators – making competition intense and profits negligible. Why page view a Chicago Tribune web page that's feeding info from the New York Times or Marketwatch or MSNBC when you can go directly to the New York Times or Marketwatch or MSNBC and get it yourself – possibly with other interesting sidebars? Succeeding in the new market requires developing an entirely new Success Formula – which Tribune Company has not done. It's still trying to find that magical "leverage" which will allow it to preserve its "history" (its old Success Formula) while tiptoeing into the new marketplace.
I don't know any newspaper or magazine publisher that has really attacked its Lock-ins, really Disrupted, or set up a true White Space team to explore how to make money in the growing new news market. News Corp. had the chance when it bought MySpace.com, but failed as it destroyed the MySpace business by "helping" its leadership. This market requires understanding how to get the news and report it cheaply and very fast, to computer and mobile device users. That is necessary to obtain the traffic which would be valuable to advertisers. And simultaneously the new team must package ad sales so as to maximize revenues from page views. Most are far too reliant on single ad sales, and not effectively linking the right ads to the right pages to generate more click-throughs as well as views.
Re-invention Gaps emerge because we let Lock-in blind us to growth opportunities. We define the business around the Lock-ins (such as printing a newspaper) rather than defining it around what the market wants (news.) Then when revenues stumble, starting a growth stall, the energy goes into preserving the old Success Formula (and its Lock-ins) first with cost cuts, and later with efforts to "synergize" or "leverage" the old Success Formula into the new market. And this never works. The growing part of the market is entirely different, and requires developing an entirely new Success Formula. That's why even in growing markets businesses fail, unless they commit to Dis
rupting the Lock-in and using White Space to move back into the growth Rapids.
by Adam Hartung | Apr 8, 2010 | Current Affairs, Defend & Extend, In the Rapids, Web/Tech
The second step of The Phoenix Principle is "Obsess about Competitors." This doesn't rile people up much. But when I tell them "I want you to dramatically cut the time you talk to and listen to customers – and invest that investigating competitors" then LOTS of people get riled up. When I wrote a Forbes column on the topic ("Listen to Competitors – Not Customers") I was inundated with comments – most of them not too kind. People were upset that I would attack the widely held notion that you can't spend enough time listening to customers.
There are lots of examples of companies led down the primrose path to disaster by listening to customers. One of my favorites is that IBM got out of the PC business by the latter half of the 1980s because their customers – data center managers – told them that they could see no need for PCs and the product was a waste of resources. IBM needed to renew its focus on data center (real computing!) needs and quit playing with that toy!
We have another great example emerging right now in mobile devices. RIM (Research in Motion) has focused on the "enterprise marketplace" by selling hard to corporations that they should have Blackberry servers and Blackberry corporate applications which can be supported well and have the "right kind" of security and features for a typical "enterprise" IT department. Because of this, RIM has really put all of its money into supporting "enterprise" customers, doing what they want. But meanwhile, Apple has been busy changing the game – by giving the market what it wants and targeting the destruction of Palm rather than doing what the "enterprise customers" have asked for.
Source: Silicon Alley Insider
RIM's focus on its "core customer" the "enterprise customer" has been intended to make sure the Blackberry Defends & Extends its leadership position. But that has not yielded many apps. Even Adroid has 6x the RIM apps (and a likely launch an attack on "enterprise customers" soon.) Meanwhile, by focusing on the marketplace, and discovering unmet and underserved needs in order to wipe out Palm, Apple has developed 34X the number of RIM apps.
Source: Silicon Alley Insider
As we can see, this difference in applications has let Apple blow right by Palm – and almost catch RIM. And of course, that will now be the next market Apple will attack. Just like the PC attacked the old data center, the iPhone (and iPad) and all its users will drive these products into every day business use. While RIM was "listening to its customer" it missed a major change in the marketplace. The requirement for multiple apps. While RIM was attempting to Defend & Extend its market position – and probably bragging about holding share while Palm was getting creamed – it was letting Apple create the market shift that is soon going to overtake RIM and Blackberry. Don't forget, you can obtain a Blackberry from almost any network provider – so what will happen when the iPhone and iPad become move beyond limited distribution to all network providers?
This customer-centric problem is most pronounced in "enterprise" solutions. Like IBM, which was the #1 "enterprise" vendor for corporate computing. The notion of selling to the "enterprise" connotes big sales, with big revenues to big companies – and it is assumed big profits will result. Yet, what really happens is that often supporting the "enterprise" marketplace ends up being a never ending effort to make small improvements to existing products in order to help the "core customer" do one more small thing – making their life easy. While the "enterprise" vendor is busy with this work, he ends up Defending & Extending his "base" product for his "base" customers – and the customers are trying to Defend & Extend their historical investment. But eventually these "enterprise" customers shift – usually very fast.
Meanwhile Apple is in the marketplace, paying all kinds of attention to the weaknesses of competitors and picking them off – one by one. First Palm, then RIM. We spend too much time listening to customers, letting them convince us to Defend & Extend our products and solutions. We need to spend a LOT MORE time focused on competition – figuring out how to ruin their day while developing fringe opportunities that change the marketplace and drive growth!
by Adam Hartung | Apr 7, 2010 | Current Affairs, eBooks, In the Rapids, Innovation, Leadership, Openness, Web/Tech
Nancy Munro of Knowledgeshift.com posted a great blog "Technology was Blago's Enemy Again." Although many people watch The Apprentice, I'm not one. Apparently the former governor of Illinois was a contestant, and when he was challenged to lead a project team his lack of technology skills got in the way of effectively doing the job. Although he's a smart lawyer and politician, his tool set had become outdated. A competitive team leader who was very good at texting and other state-of-the-art technologies was able to best Governor Blagojevich's team, and the ex-governor was "fired" by Donald Trump from the show.
On the surface, this is a funny story. But Nancy points out how it reflects the very real issues of using technology when competing. All businesses compete every day. Those that learn to use new technologies are able to get more done, faster and more effectively. Those who fall into a routine of doing things the same way, and don't advance their tool set, run the risk of being knocked out of the competition. Mr. Blagojevich's inability to use modern technology killed his chances of winning the competition.
Will you, or your business, go to any trade shows or conferences this year? Probably. But you'll limit attendance because you're still worried about financial performance. How will you select where you go? Probably by attending the ones most closely associated with your industry or business. But think about it, are those the ones that will be most valuable? You'll probably mostly hear what you already know, and reinforce your existing beliefs about the business. Is that really an effective spend?
Instead, shouldn't you use the funds to learn about what you don't know? Like how to be a world-class social marketer? This is an amazingly fast growing area where early adopters are gaining new sales. For example, Guy Kawasaki and the world's leaders in social marketing will be talking about how to get sales and profits from Twitter and Facebook at something called "The Smartbrief Social Media Success Summit." I'm not a shill for the conference (I'm not even speaking there), but this kind of event offers the very real opportunity of learning something you don't know – rather than reinforcing old Lock-ins and keeping you doing what you've always done.
Have you purchased a Kindle or iPad yet? If not, how do you know what they can or can't do? At SeekingAlpha.com "Thoughts on the iPad" offers one person's reflection on what the iPad does well, and doesn't, and where it might evolve – as well as how it compares to the Kindle. These devices are selling in the millions – so are you and your business thinking about how to use one to help sell more products or make more money? Yahoo and Google are both launching ad models for iPad (see Mediapost.com "Yahoo Readies Launch of Online Advertising Model"). Are you considering using this media to reach new customers? Have you considered how one of these products embedded in what you sell might offer you a competitive advantage? If you and your colleagues haven't tried one, experimented, how would you know?
Our businesses rarely get into trouble from something we know well. It's what we don't know, what we ignore, that gets us in trouble. Like Craigslist.com wiping out newspaper classified ads. The newspapers didn't even see it coming. On the other hand, if they had investigated and used Craigslist they could have prepared, and maybe even developed a competitive on-line product to grow new revenues!
It's incumbent upon us to constantly expand into new markets. We have to constantly keep White Space alive where we use resources to experiment in areas outside traditional permission. It's easy to keep throwing all our resources into what we know, but in the end, it's what we don't know that will knock us out of the game – like poor Blago.
by Adam Hartung | Mar 17, 2010 | Defend & Extend, In the Rapids, In the Swamp, Leadership, Lifecycle
You've probably read that 80% of new jobs are created in small business. Even if this is true, it creates a misconception. You'd think that we need to start lots of new companies. As BusinessWeek reported in "Looking for More High Growth Start-ups" 40% of new jobs are created by a mere 1% of start-ups. The really fast growers.
We like to think that all companies contribute job growth to the economy. But that is simply not true. In reality, the vast majority of businesses contribute no new jobs. In fact, they are reducing employment. Almost all of the job growth, in fact almost all of the economic growth, comes from a very small number of companies that account for almost all the real growth. These are the 10% of companies that are in the Rapids. All others are either looking for early growth, or trying to "hang on" to an outdated Success Formula and seeing their business slowly (or not so slowly) erode.
Most small businesses are in the Wellspring. Looking for some kind of growth. Most of these – literally 90% – never really figure out a Success Formula that drives growth, and they simply die off. The other big group of businesses are somewhere in the Flats or Swamp. Growth has left them, as market shifts have taken demand to other competitors. They are facing a Re-Invention Gap between what they do and what most customers really want. As a result, they produce no inflation-adjusted revenue growth, and no new jobs. Eventually, as the re-invention gap grows, they drift into the Swamp of declining returns. Eventually they become obsolete. Think about independent pharmacies, most insurance agents, small banks, bicycle shops – you get the idea.
So where do we get new jobs? From the companies that are in the Rapids. Think about the skkyrocketing employment at places like Boeing and airlines when aviation was a growth industry in the 1960s through the 1980s. And the growth in computer and IT jobs in the 1990s. Those businesses that participatd in the Rapids are participating in market shifts, and they are creating new revenues and jobs.
Today a good example is Google. While traditional companies are lamenting "a bad economy" Google is participating in the market shift, and thus creating revenue growth and new jobs. At PoynterOnline.com, in "Google Team Offers Lessons in Innovation, Project Management", we can read how the GMail team discussed at the recent South by Southwest Conference their approach to remaining in the Rapids. While other organizations are frozen in place, trying to Defend what they've always done, and thereby falling into the Swamp, Google keeps pushing forward with new solutions that help customers do new things — and thus create additional growth.
Apple, Amazon and Cisco are additional examples of organizations that are using Disruptions and White Space to keep their companies participating in market shifts. As a result, they've kept growing in 2008, 2009 and into 2010. They don't blame the economy, they keep innovating and taking new solutions to market. Thus they grow. Those companies that are blaming the economy are simply spending too much time trying to Defend & Extend their old Success Formula, and drifting into obsolescence.
Even big, entrenched companies can grow. The Wall Street Journal recently interviewed the CEO of Austalia's phone company, Telstra, in "If You Don't Deliver Numbers You Aren't Doing Your Job." He points out that as CEO his most important role is to keep the company growing. He could easily have gotten stuck thinking of his business as a traditional, land-line telco. But his role is to balance the management of an old Success Formula with implementing White Space which can evolve his company forward into a post-modern communications company with new technologies and new solutions. As a result, what could be thought of as a bureaucratic monopoly is much more successful, growing through its participation in market shifts.
Alternatively, we have AT&T, and its former leader Mr. Whitacre now ensconced at General Motors. The original AT&T almost went bankrupt before being acquired by what was Southwestern Bell – then renamed to AT&T. AT&T kept losing jobs by the tens of thousands – as did the regional Bell Companies. Mr. Whitacre, with his "caretaker" approach to the old Success Formula, simply kept buying up old pieces of the original AT&T and laying off more people. Today AT&T is a shell of what it was in the early 1980s when split apart. It is not an aggressive part of the market shift, nor is it growing like Telstra.
And Mr. Whitacre is now at GM. Another company that is deeply mired in the Swamp – and very unlikely to avoid the Whirlpool. GM is not leading in any market shifts, and as a result its sales are not growing – nor is its employment. Lacking participation in growing markets, GM will continue shedding revenues and jobs as it marches toward obsolescence.
Myths about lifecycles abound. The biggest is that if you stick to your core, you will keep growing. Somehow you will jump from one new product line to the next, and maintain growth. But it just doesn't happen. Focusing on your core causes you to drop out of growth as market shifts make you irrelevant – like Wang, Lanier, Digital Equipment, Silicon Graphics and Sun Microsystems. Growth slows, employment shrinks. To succeed you have to continuously participate in market shifts, to keep yourself in the Growth Rapids. And for our economy, we desperately need more leaders to refocus on creating Disruptions and White Space to grow – like Google – if we are to get the U.S. economy growing again.
by Adam Hartung | Mar 8, 2010 | Defend & Extend, In the Rapids, In the Swamp, Leadership, Web/Tech
Two tech giants are Microsoft and Google. The former has been around for over 30 years. The latter about a decade. Which is the company you should work for, or invest in? The one that has demonstrated a long history and great record of earnings, or the newer one participating in new markets still not well understood with a slew of new – but largely unproven – products? You might think the older one is less risky, and feel more comfortable backing.
But we know that Microsoft is losing market share, especially in growing markets. Although its products have been dominant, the market for those products (personal computers used as servers, desktop machines and laptops) has seen substantial slowing. New solutions are emerging that compete directly with Microsoft (new operating systems like Linux and others) and compete indirectly (cloud computing and thin applications on mobile devices.)
Source: Silicon Alley Insider
In just 18 months Microsoft Internet Explorer has lost 13 market share points – dropping from 68% of the market to 55%. Almost all of that has gone to Safari (Macintosh) and Google Chrome. Chrome has risen from nothing to 7% of the market. And since internet usage is growing, while desktop usage is shrinking, this is the "leading edge" of the market.
Also, the Chrome operating system will be launching later in 2010. It also will go directly after the "Windows" franchise which had a very unexciting launch of System 7 in 2009.
Let's look at valuation: First Microsoft – which has gone basically sideways. Huge peak to trough, but overall not much gain for investors despite launching two major upgrades during the period (Vista and System 7 as well as Office 2007). Obviously, upgrade products have produced very little growth for Microsoft, or its valuation.
Now we can look at Google. Google investors have doubled their money, while employment has grown. All those new products have helped Google to grow, and investors have an optimistic view of future growth.
Do you make decisions looking in the rear view mirror, or out the windshield? It can be tempting to be influenced by a great past. But that really isn't relevant. What's important is the future. And we can see that Microsoft, which keeps trying to Defend & Extend what it knows is rapidly falling behind the market changer, Google, which is rapidly moving toward where markets are heading.
D&E Management never creates growth. By trying to recapture the past, new market moves are missed and growth opportunities lost. Companies have to move forward, with new products, into new markets. And if you have any doubt, just compare the results of Defend & Extend Management at Microsoft the last 5 years with Phoenix Principle management using White Space at Google.
by Adam Hartung | Mar 4, 2010 | Current Affairs, Defend & Extend, In the Rapids, Leadership, Web/Tech, Weblogs
Apple's shareholder meeting was last week. In an era where shareholders are most worried about the survivability of the companies where they are invested, the biggest issue at Apple is what to do with all its cash! Reuters.com reported "Apple's Jobs says must think 'big' on cash hoard." In 2009, when most companies saw their market value decline, Apple's value doubled. Yet, it's cash is fully 1/5 (20%) of its current market capitalization! Clearly the company is generating cash faster than it has found investment opportunities. Even after launching the iPad with expectations of selling 2 to 5 million units in 2010!
We all should be so lucky, to have this problem of riches. Apple has enough cash that it could buy all the equity of Dell. Of course, why do that? It just goes to show that the company that built its market cap in the 1990s on Defend & Extend behavior – focusing on execution in a growing PC marketplace – has seen its valuation multiple shredded as buyers have shifted to other solutions. Meanwhile, Apple's value has skyrocketed because it entered new markets and created new solutions. Yet, it's cash flow has skyrocketed even faster!
It is possible for all companies to follow Apple's lead, increasing revenues and valuation. Last week I was interviewed by Zane Safrit for his radio program and highlights are on his blog, and the full interview is available for listening at the BlogTalkRadio site. In the interview Zane brings out how so many business leaders are stuck defending and extending broken Success Formulas that cannot produce better returns, and waiting for a "better economy" to "save" them. What Zane also cleverly brings out is how The Phoenix Principle can be applied to any business, with results that can be as stunning as Apple's. If leaders will start focusing on the future, obsessing about competitors, utillize Disruptions and White Space.
Of course, these are amplified in the "10 Ways to Stay Ahead of the Competition" I posted in yesterday's blog. I've received comments that the links to the deeper discussion on both the Business Insider web site and the IBM Open Forum weren't working, so I'm reproducing them here again.
10 Ways to Stay Ahead of the Competition – Business Insider
How to Stay Ahead of the Competition – IBM Open Forum
All companies can grow like Apple. But it takes a different way of approaching management. I hope you can find time to listen to the interview and explore how your organization can become like a Phoenix, forever growing through constant rebirth.
by Adam Hartung | Mar 3, 2010 | General, In the Rapids, Leadership, Openness, Web/Tech, Weblogs
Guy Kawasaki contacted me a couple of weeks ago, asking me to write a short piece for him. I was happy to do so, and he published it at the BusinessInsider.com War Room as "10 Ways to Stay Ahead of the Competition." Fortunately for me, the article was also picked up at IBMOpenForum.com with the alternate title "How to Stay Ahead of the Competition." Full explanations of each bullet are at both locations (although the graphics are outstanding at Business Insider so I prefer it.)
- Develop future scenarios
- Obsess about competitors
- Study fringe competitors
- Attack your Lock-ins
- Seek Disruptions
- Don't ask customers for insight
- Avoid Cost Cutting
- Do lots of testing
- Acquire outside input
- Target competitors
Blog followers know that this program has now worked for many companies who want to grow in this recession. The reason it works is because
- You focus on the market, not yourself
- You avoid Lock-in blindness by avoiding an over-focus on existing products, services and customers
- You use outside input, from advisers and competitors to identify market shifts that can really hurt you
- You put a competitive edge into everything you do. Competitors kill your returns, not yourself.
- You use market feedback rather than internal analysis guide resource allocation
Of course this works. How can it not? When you are obsessed about markets and competitors and you let it direct your flow of money and talent you'll constantly be positioned to do what the market values. You'll have your eyes on the horizon, and not the rear view mirror.
The biggest objection is always my comment about "don't ask customers for insight." So many people have been indoctrinated into "always ask the customer" and "the customer is always right" that they can't imagine not asking customers what you ought to do. Even though the evidence is overwhelming that customer feedback is usually wrong, and more likely destructive than beneficial.
Just remember, IBMs best customers (data center managers) told them the PC was a stupid product, and IBM dropped the product line 6 years after inventing the PC business. DEC's customers kept asking for more bells and whistles on their CAD/CAM systems, then dropped DEC altogether for AutoCad ending the company. GM customers kept asking for bigger, faster more comfortable cars – improvements on previous models – then moved to imports with different designs, better gas mileage and better fit/finish. Circuit City customers asked for more in-store assistance, then took the assistance across the street to buy from cheaper Best Buy stores. The stories are legend of failed companies who delivered what the customer wanted, and ended up out of business.
Enjoy the links, and thanks to Guy for publishing this short piece. Follow these 10 steps and any business can stay ahead of the competition.
by Adam Hartung | Feb 28, 2010 | In the Rapids, Openness, Web/Tech
Google keeps on growing. While many companies bemoan revenue losses and poor results in 2008 and 2009, Google keeps new products flowing out the door and revenues continue to increase. New markets are being developed.
This Google revenue growth is powered by use of White Space, as CNN.com reported in "Gmail holds Graduations and Funerals." GMail labs is a White Space team that develops new applications and uses for Gmail. Its operating premise is that it should develop the products rapidly, then push into the market to get feedback. Then the team can determine what to modify and test further, what to push into the market as non-beta and what to kill. As recently demonstrated in the headlined behavior, Google is ready to keep some things and kill others based upon market feedback – not just what the internal people or analysts think.
- "This isn't the first time Gmail Labs has graduated and killed some test
features since Gmail Labs started in June 2008, but the event does
underscore an idea that Google says is key to its success as an
innovative company: Let people create products they'd use themselves,
get those products out to the public as soon as possible, and make
consumers think it's OK for things to break."
- ""At Google, in general, the philosophy is to get things out quickly in
front of our users and not make huge promises," said Ari Leichtberg,
another Google engineer"
Nothing is more accurate than real market feedback, as readers of this blog have heard me say often. Scott Anthony of Innosight recently took up this mantra in a Harvard Business Review blog "How to Kill Innovation: Keep Asking Questions." He relates how a large company with a new idea kept asking "what if" questions about a new idea. Each piece of research led to more "what if" questions. With its massive resources, the company could keep asking and researching forever, never getting real market input and never getting the innovation to market.
In traditional companies, with a new product funnel and stage gate implementation process which can take years to run through, once something moves into the market the internal "champions" are so vested in the innovation they can't stand for it to fail. Far too often, if the innovation were to fail the champions would lose their jobs – or see their careers tank. Too much analysis causes too few ideas to make it to market, and causes the organization to overspend on the innovation that does. After launch market feedback is often ignored, or manipulated, to allow the innovation to be pushed harder and longer on the hopes that with "just a little more time and effort" it will succeed.
What keeps Google growing, and attracting top talent, is its willingness to use White Space. It is willing to develop ideas quickly and obtain real market feedback. Then decide what to keep, and what not to keep. Because it moves quickly, market input shapes the offering. Market input allows the company to see what people really use, and thus worthy of additional investment. Or what people don't use, and thus needs to be dropped before too much is sunk into the idea.
When Microsoft decided to add "clippy" to its products it was a herculean effort to install it across all products. This computerized help tool has had little use, and is often despised by users. Microsoft decided to create this feature based on almost no market input, instead relying on some customer focus groups. After making the enormous investment – in lieu of many other opportunities passed over internally – Microsoft simply became "married" to the innovation. Now "clippy" is still on the applications, but is almost never used. And it gives Microsoft's products no user advantage.
All companies can grow in 2010. You need to act more like Google. Develop early stage products quickly, and get them into White Space projects which will market test them. Don't spend too much time, money and effort "what iff-ing" or doing "market research" trying to predict future customer behavior. Listen carefully for market input, then modify. Have more than one opportunity in White Space, because you don't want to over-invest in any single idea that ran the internal gauntlet. Be ready to move forward quickly with things that work, and abandon those that don't. If you use give yourself permission to test new things in White Space, and resources, you too can grow in 2010 and climb out of this recession.
by Adam Hartung | Feb 12, 2010 | Current Affairs, In the Rapids, Innovation, Leadership, Web/Tech
It's easy to misunderstand White Space. About twenty years ago Apple launched the Newton. The company sold about 375,000 of the first commercial PDAs, but Apple's leadership thought the market wasn't really there – and decided instead to focus on growing Mac sales. Obviously, as Palm and other PDA makers demonstrated, there was a tremendous market for PDAs. Apple misread the feedback from White Space.
Look now at the recent iPad launch. Silicon Alley Insider headlined "Now That They've Seen Apple's iPad, Most People Don't Want One." The headline keys on the fact that after the launch the number of people who said they were not interested to buy doubled (26% to 52%). Wrong fact to grab onto.
Instead, look at the fact that the number who said they would buy one tripled, from 3% to 9%. This is incredible, and should excite Apple's management as well as employees, suppliers and shareholders.
Most people will see a new, innovative product and say "why would I want that? I already have this other thing and it works great." And that is what marketers should expect. Most people are just trying to Defend & Extend what they regularly do, and thus all the want is a product that helps them do their thing a little easier, faster, better and cheaper. They want minor improvements – variations and derivatives of what they already have. Improvements that are immediate, without them doing anything new or different.
All new deeply innovative products start with customers who are under-served or unserved. And this is why it is so important they be launched in White Space. White Space teams aren't intended to develop the big, mass market of known customers looking for something new. White Space is about doing new things that bring in new customers, give new solutions that attract real growth. And White Space teams have to learn how the market is evolving, how they fit into the market shift and how their solution will advance the market in order to sell more.
For the iPad, the 3% to 9% shift in likely buyers is huge because it shows that the iPad is an offering that appeals to people who are not today well served by their existing PC, laptop, netbook, mobile phone, kindle or mix of these solutions. 9% of respondents are saying that they see the iPad and they see a solution for what they want to get done. And if 9% of potential buyers see this option, that is HUGE. By White Space standards, often there are only .5% or 1% or 2% of people who initially see how the new product fulfills their under-served needs.
Set expectations right for White Space. White Space is not for launching variation 4 of an existing product – targeted at existing customers. That's what the marketing and sales department can do fine, thank you very much. White Space is the team that finds the 3% (or in Apple's case 9%) of users that see value in this solution, then works with them to implement the product/solution in order to make sure it fulfills the market need and is priced to sell effectively while providing a profit to the company.
Apple understands this, you can be assured. Look at how successfully the Apple White Space teams found the underserved users that jumped all over the iPod and iTunes, the iTouch and then the iPhone. They got the product positioned and selling in a hurry. And now that Apple has that skill, the company is going to apply it to the iPad. If you understand this chart correctly, you understand that it bodes very, very good things for Apple.
And it tells you the importance of having White Space teams, setting their expectations correctly, and managing them for the kind of results that can turn your organization into the next Apple. It took Apple 10 years to reach this skill level. It did not happen overnight. Or with one product introduction. And it will take your organization a few years to build this skill. So, what are you waiting on?
by Adam Hartung | Feb 10, 2010 | Current Affairs, General, In the Rapids, Innovation, Leadership, Lifecycle, Openness, Web/Tech
Lots of new things are happening with technology. Everyone knows that. We see the emergence of new communication vehicles like Facebook, and new ways to exchange data – like Apple's iPhone and RIM's Blackberry. Skype replaces the telephone and in-person meetings. iTunes replaced CDs. The list is pretty long. But how much of these new technologies do you use regularly, how many do you use in your business, and how many do you use in "mission critical" applications of things you do?
Most of us watch new markets develop. Many even think the smart thing to do is to wait, let things evolve, see what happens. Be a late adopter when technology is "stabilized" and prices are lower. These are spectators to the world of innovation, doing what they've always done and waiting for some future time when it will seem better to switch.
Then there are participants. The participants are learning. While others watch, they actually learn how to get new customers, how to sell more product, how to apply technology to lower cost while improving the solution, how to be more competitive, how to read market shifts (and prepare) – how to make more money. Like Google.
Google just launched Buzz ("Google Betting on Mo Better Buzz" at Mediapost.com. Buzz is a new product that links up to social media sites for a variety of functions – one of which is its ability to deliver ads (imagine that) while also adding benefits to users like location tagging and enhancing email. It does new things, and some things already available via Facebook or Yelp. That it's market position, or even its functional position in the technology environment, isn't clear is not terribly important to Google management. In "A Buzz and A Shrug: Why Should Google Kill Anything?" MediaPost.com goes on to describe that at the launch meeting management went out of its way refusing to declare a specific position, or competitive plan, for Buzz. Google is in the market, trying something, learning and participating – being part of making Disruptions happen and seeing if it can find a way to create sales and profits.
And that's what White Space, and participation, is all about. While spectators watch and get left behind, participants are in the market. Spectators fall off the S-curve, as their capabilities fall away from market needs they become less relevant, sell less and profits fall. Participants use White Space to jump the curve – to move from an old product/market S curve to a new one. They are in the market learning, and adapting, and moving toward that point where the technologies and solutions collide – thus they are ready and able to move to the next new thing. While spectators are stuck, doing the same old thing, falling farther behind.
Being a participant isn't hard, nor is it all that expensive. It requires the willingness to get in the game. To start. To do less "planning" and instead get in there and do it – like the NIke ad recommends. Instead of devoting all your money to defending and extending what you know, take some and invest in the places where growth is rampant. The learning will pay for itself as it allows your business to move into new markets and generate new revenues. You will have to Disrupt your thinking and processes to do this, but the payoff is it could save your company!
Long ago business education started with a lot of focus on industrial engineering. Improving operations to get more stuff out the door. This was augmented by sales and marketing, to help sell stuff so we could get more out the door. And finance was added as a way to understand cash flow and funding in order to get more stuff out the door. All of that was predicated on endless demand for the stuff. But today, it's not about making lots of your stuff and cramming it down customer throats. Instead, winners have to be adaptable to market needs – to be part of creating new solutions that generate more revenues and higher profit rates.
You don't need all the answers. White Space is about having a plan, and goals, based upon scenarios. But then avoiding analytical paralysis and getting into the market. Google is phenomenal at this. Not everything Google launches is a big hit. Google Wave appears to be struggling. But that's OK. If you don't put all your eggs in one basket, because you get into markets earlier and faster, you can afford to have misses. You still get the benefits of market learning – and move forward to possibly jumping the next S curve. Google's Buzz is another stereotypical White Space entry into the market. A product with a lot of possibilities, looking for how to fit into a quickly shifting market, teaching Google more about the marketplace and aiding the company toward maintaining its torrid growth pace.
