by Adam Hartung | Jan 22, 2012 | Defend & Extend, In the Rapids, Innovation, Leadership, Lock-in, Transparency, Web/Tech
Turning over a new year inevitably leads to selections for "CEO of the Year." Investor Business Daily selected Larry Page of Google 3 weeks ago, and last week Marketwatch.com selected Jeff Bezos of Amazon. Comparing the two is worthwhile, because there is almost nothing similar about what the two have done – and one is almost sure to dramatically outperform the other.
Focusing on the Future
What both share is a willingness to focus their companies on the future. Both have introduced major new products, targeted at developing new markets and entirely new revenue streams for their companies. Both have significantly sacrificed short-term profits seeking long-term strategic positioning for sustainable, higher future returns. Both have, and continue to, spend vast sums of money in search of competitive advantage for their organizations.
And both have seen their stock value clobbered. In 2011 Amazon rose from $150/share low to almost $250 before collapsing at year's end to about $175 – actually lower than it started the calendar year. Google's stock dropped from $625/share to below $475 before recovering all the way to $670 – only to crater all the way to $585 last week. Clearly the analysts awarding these CEOs were looking way beyond short-term investor returns when making their selections. So it is more important than ever we understand what both have done, and are planning to do in the future, if we are to support either, or both, as award winners. Or buy their stock.
Google participates in great growth markets
The good news for Google is its participation in high growth markets. Search ads continue growing, supplying the bulk of revenues and profits for the company. Its Android product gives Google great position in mobile devices, and supporting Chrome applications help clients move from traditional architectures and applications to cloud-based solutions at lower cost and frequently higher user satisfaction. Additionally, Google is growing internet display ad sales, a fast growing market, by increasing participation in social networks.
Because Google is in high growth markets, its revenues keep growing healthily. But CEO Page's "focus" leadership has led to the killing of several products, retrenching from several markets, and remarkably huge bets in 2 markets where Google's revenues and profits lag dramatically – mobile devices and search.
Because Android produces no revenue Google bought near-bankrupt Motorola to enter the hardware and applications business becoming similar to Apple – a big bet using some old technology against what is the #1 technology company on the planet. Whether this will be a market share winner for Google, and whether it will make or lose money, is far from certain.
Simultaneously, the Google+ launch is an attempt to take on the King Kong of social – Facebook – which has 800million users and remarkable success. The Google+ effort has been (and will continue to be) very expensive and far from convincing. Its product efforts have even angered some people as Google tried steering social networkers rather heavy-handidly toward Google products – as it did with "Search plus Your World" recently.
Mr. Page has positioned Google as a gladiator in some serious "battles to the death" that are investment intensive. Google must keep fighting the wounded, hurting and desperate Microsoft in search against Bing+Yahoo. While Google is the clear winner, desperate but well funded competitors are known to behave suicidally, and Google will find the competition intensive. Meanwhile, its offerings in mobile and social are not unique. Google is going toe-to-toe with Apple and Facebook with products which show no great superiority. And the market leaders are wildly profitable while continuously introducing new innovations. It will be tough fighting in these markets, consuming lots of resources.
Entering 3 gladiator battles simultaneously is ambitious, to say the least. Whether Google can afford the cost, and can win, is debatable. As a result it only takes a small miss, comparing actual results to analyst expectations, for investors to run – as they did last week.
Amazon redefines competition in its markets
CEO Bezos' leadership at Amazon is very different. Rather than gladiator wars, Amazon brings out products that are very different and avoids head-to-head competition. Amazon expands new markets by meeting under- or unserved needs with products that change the way customers behave – and keeps competitors from attacking Amazon head-on:
- Amazon moved from simply selling books to selling a vast array of products on the web. It changed retail buying not by competing directly with traditional retailers, but by offering better (and different) on-line solutions which traditional retailers ignored or adopted far too slowly. Amazon was very early to offer web solutions for independent retailers to use the Amazon site, and was very early to offer a mobile interface making shopping from smartphones fast and easy. Because it wasn't trying to defend and extend a traditional brick-and-mortar retail model, like Wal-Mart, Amazon has redefined retail and dramatically expanded shopping on-line.
- Amazon changed the book market with Kindle. It utilized new technology to do what publishers, locked into traditional mindsets (and business models) would not do. As the print market struggled, Amazon moved fast to take the lead in digital publishing and media sales, something nobody else was doing, producing fast revenue growth with higher margins.
- When retailers were loath to adopt tablets as a primary interface for shoppers, Amazon brought out Kindle Fire. Cleverly the Kindle Fire is not directly positioned against the king of all tablets – iPad – but rather as a product that does less, but does things like published media and retail very well — and at a significantly lower price. It brings the new user on-line fast, if they've been an Amazon customer, and makes life simple and easy for them. Perhaps even easier than the famously easy Apple products.
In all markets Amazon moves early and deftly to fulfill unmet needs at a very good price. And then it captures more and more customers as the solution becomes more powerful. Amazon finds ways to compete with giants, but not head-on, and thus rapidly grow revenues and market position while positioning itself as the long term winner. Amazon has destroyed all the big booksellers – with the exception of Barnes & Noble which doesn't look too great – and one can only wonder what its impact in 5 years will be on traditional retailers like Kohl's, Penney's and even Wal-Mart. Amazon doesn't have to "win" a battle with Apple's iPad to have a wildly successful, and profitable, Kindle offering.
The successful CEO's role is different than many expect
A recent RHR International poll of 83 mid-tier company CEOs (reported at Business Insider) discovered that while most felt prepared for the job, most simultaneously discovered the requirements were not what they expected. In the past we used to think of a CEO as a steward, someone to be very careful with investor money. And someone expected to know the business' core strengths, then be very selective to constantly reinforce those strengths without venturing into unknown businesses.
But today markets shift quickly. Technology and global competition means all businesses are subject to market changes, with big moves in pricing, costs and customer expectations, very fast. Caretaker CEOs are being crushed – look at Kodak, Hostess and Sears. Successful CEOs have to guide their businesses away from investing in money-losing businesses, even if they are part of the company's history, and toward rapidly growing opportunities created by being part of the shift. Disruptors are now leading the success curve, while followers are often sucking up a lot of profit-killing dust.
Amazon bears similarities to the Apple of a decade ago. Introducing new products that are very different, and changing markets. It is competing against traditional giants, but with very untraditional solutions. It finds unmet needs, and fills them in unique ways to capture new customers – and creates market shifts.
Google, on the other hand, looks a lot like the lumbering Microsoft. It has a near monopoly in a growing market, but its investments in new markets come late, and don't offer a lot of innovation. Google's products end up competing directly, somewhat like xBox did with other game consoles, in very, very expensive – usually money-losing – competition that can go on for years. Google looks like a company trying to use money rather than innovation to topple an existing market leader, and killing a lot of good product ideas to keep pouring money into markets where it is late and not terribly creative.
Which CEO do you think will be the winner in 2015? Into which company are you prepared to invest? Both are in high growth markets, but they are being led very, very differently. And their strategies could not be more different. Which one you choose to own – as a product customer or investor – will have significant consequences for you (and them) in 3 years.
It's worth taking the time to decide which you think is the right leadership today. And be sure you know what leadership principles you are adopting, and following in your organization.
by Adam Hartung | Jul 28, 2011 | Books, Current Affairs, Defend & Extend, eBooks, In the Rapids, Innovation, Leadership, Television, Web/Tech
“It’s easier to succeed in the Amazon than on the polar tundra” Bruce Henderson, famed founder of The Boston Consulting Group, once told me. “In the arctic resources are few, and there aren’t many ways to compete. You are constantly depleting resources in life-or-death struggles with competitors. Contrarily, in the Amazon there are multiple opportunities to grow, and multiple ways to compete, dramatically increasing your chances for success. You don’t have to fight a battle of survival every day, so you can really grow.”
Today, Amazon(.com) is the place to be. As the financial markets droop, fearful about the economy and America’s debt ceiling “crisis,” Amazon is achieving its highest valuation ever. While the economy, and most companies, struggle to grow, Amazon is hitting record growth:
Source: BusinessInsider.com
Sales are up 50% versus last year! The result of this impressive sales growth has been a remarkable valuation increase – comparable to Apple!
- Since 2009, valuation is up 5.5x
- Over 5 years valuation is up 8x
- Over the last decade Amazon’s value has risen 15x
How did Amazon do this? Not by “sticking to its knitting” or being very careful to manage its “core.” In 2001 Amazon was still largely an on-line book seller.
The company’s impressive growth has come by moving far from its “core” into new markets and new businesses – most far removed from its expertise. Despite its “roots” and “DNA” being in U.S. books and retailing, the company has pioneered off-shore businesses and high-tech products that help customers take advantage of big trends.
Amazon’s earnings release provided insight to its fantastic growth. Almost 50% of revenues lie outside the U.S. Traditional retailers such as WalMart, Target, Kohl’s, Sears, etc. have struggled in foreign markets, and blamed poor performance on weak infrastructure and complex legal/tax issues. But where competitors have seen obstacles, Amazon created opportunity to change the way customers buy, and change the industry using its game-changing technology and capabilities. For its next move, according to Silicon Alley Insider, “Amazon is About to Invade India,” a huge retail market, in an economy growing at over 7%/year, with rising affluence and spendable income – but almost universally overlooked by most retailers due to weak infrastructure and complex distribution.
Amazon’s remarkable growth has occurred even though its “core” business of books has been declining – rather dramatically – the last decade. Book readership declines have driven most independents, and large chains such as B. Dalton and more recently Borders, out of business. But rather than use this as an excuse for weak results, Amazon invested heavily in the trends toward digitization and mobility to launch the wildly successful Kindle e-Reader. Today about half of all Amazon book sales are digital, creating growth where most competitors (hell-bent on trying to defend the old business) have dealt with stagnation and decline.
Amazon did this without a background as a technology company, an electronics company, or a consumer goods company. Additionally, Amazon invested in Kindle – and is now developing a tablet – even as these products cannibalized the historically “core” paper-based book sales. And Amazon has pursued these market shifts, even though these new products create a significant threat to Amazon’s largest traditional suppliers – book publishers.
Rather than trying to defend its old core business, Amazon has invested heavily in trends – even when these investments were in areas where Amazon had no history, capability or expertise!
Amazon has now followed the trends into a leading position delivering profitable “cloud” services. Amazon Web Services (AWS) generated $500M revenue last year, is reportedly up 50% to $750M this year, and will likely hit $1B or more before next year. In addition to simple data storage Amazon offers cloud-based Oracle database services, and even ERP (enterprise resource planning) solutions from SAP. In cloud computing services Amazon now leads historically dominant IT services companies like Accenture, CSC, HP and Dell. By offering solutions that fulfill the emerging trends, rather than competing head-to-head in traditional service areas, Amazon is growing dramatically and avoiding a gladiator war. And capturing big sales and profits as the marketplace explodes.
Amazon created 5,300 U.S. jobs last quarter. Organic revenue growth was 44%. Cash flow increased 25%. All because the company continued expanding into new markets, including not only new retail markets, and digital publishing, but video downloads and television streaming – including making a deal to deliver CBS shows and archive.
Amazon’s willingness to go beyond conventional wisdom has been critical to its success. GeekWire.com gives insight into how Amazon makes these critical resource decisions in “Jeff Bezos on Innovation” (taken from comments at a shareholder meeting June 7, 2011):
- “you just have to place a bet. If you place enough of those bets, and if you place them early enough, none of them are ever betting the company”
- “By the time you are betting the company, it means you haven’t invented for too long”
- “If you invent frequently and are willing to fail, then you never get to the point where you really need to bet the whole company”
- “We are planting more seeds…everything we do will not work…I am never concerned about that”
- “my mind never lets me get in a place where I think we can’t afford to take these bets”
- “A big piece of the story we tell ourselves about who we are, is that we are willing to invent”
If you want to succeed, there are ample lessons at Amazon. Be willing to enter new markets, be willing to experiment and learn, don’t play “bet the company” by waiting too long, and be willing to invest in trends – especially when existing competitors (and suppliers) are hesitant.
by Adam Hartung | Mar 2, 2011 | Books, Defend & Extend, eBooks, In the Rapids, In the Swamp, Innovation, Leadership, Lock-in
What separates business winners from the losers? A lot of pundits would say you need to be efficient, cost conscious and manage margins. Others would say you need to be really good (excellent) at something – much better than anyone else. Unfortunately, that sounds good but in our fast-paced, highly competitive world today those platitudes don’t really create winners. Success has much more to do with the ability to shift. And to create shifts.
Think about Amazon.com. This company was started as an on-line retail channel for books most stores would not stock on their shelves. But Amazon used the shift to internet acceptance as a way to grow into selling all books, and eventually came to dominate book sales. Not only have most of the small book stores disappeared, but huge chains like B. Dalton and more recently Borders, were driven to bankruptcy. Amazon then built on this shift to expand into selling lots more than books, becoming a force for selling all kinds of products. And even opening itself to become a portal for other on-line retalers by routing customers to their sites, and even taking orders for products shipped from other e-tailers.
More recently, Amazon has taken advantage of the shift to digitization by launching its Kindle e-reader. And by making thousands of books available for digital downloading. By acting upon market trends, Amazon has shifted quickly, and has caused shifts in the market where it participates. And this shifting has been worth a lot to Amazon. Over the last 5 years Amazon’s stock has risen from about $30/share to about $180/share – about a 45%/year compounded rate of return!
Chart source: Yahoo Finance
In the middle to late 1990s, as Amazon was just starting to appear on radar screens, it appeared like Sears would be the kind of company that could dominate the internet. After all Sears was huge! It was a Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) member that had ample resources to invest in the emerging growth market. Sears had a history of pioneering markets. It had once dominated retail with its catalogs, then became a powerhouse in free standing retail stores, then led the movement to shopping malls as an anchor chain, and even used its history in lending to develop what became Discover card, and had once shown its ability to be a financial services company and even an insurer! Sears had shifted with historical trends, and surely the company would see that it could bring its resources to the shifting retail landscape in order to remain dominant.
Unfortunately, Sears went a different direction, prefering to focus on defending its current business model. As the chain struggled, it was dropped from the DJIA. Eventually a financier, Edward Lampert, used his takeover of bankrupt KMart (by buying up their bonds) to take over Sears! Under his leadership Sears focused hard on being efficient, controlling costs and managing margins. Extensive financial rigor was applied to Sears to improve the profitability of every line item, dropping poor performers and closing low margin stores. While this initially excited investors, Sears was unable to compete effectively against other retailers that were lower cost, or had better merchandise or service, and the value has declined from about $190/share to $80; a loss of about 60% (at its recent worst the stock fell to almost 30 – or a decline of 84% peak to trough!)
Chart Source: Yahoo Finance
Meanwhile the world’s #1 retailer, Wal-Mart, has long excelled at being the very best at supply chain management, and low-price leadership in retailing. Wal-Mart has never varied from its original business model, and in the retail world it is undoubtedly the very best at doing what it does – buy cheap, sell cheap and run a very tight supply chain from purchase to sale. This excited some investors during the “Great Recession” as customers sought out low prices when fearing about their jobs and future.
But this strategy has not been able to produce much growth, as stores have begun saturating just about everywhere but the inner top 30 cities. And it has been completely unsuccessful outside the USA. As a result, despite its behemoth size, the value of Wal-Mart has really gone nowhere the last 5 years. While there has been price gyration (from $42 low to $62 high) for long-term investors the stock has really gone nowhere – mired mostly around $50.
Chart Source: Yahoo Finance
Investors in Amazon have clearly fared much better than Sears or Wal-Mart
Chart Source: Yahoo Finance
Too often business leaders spend too much time thinking about what they do. They think about costs, margins, the “business model” and execution. But success really has less to do with those things than understanding trends, and capitlizing on those trends by shifting. You don’t have to be the lowest cost, or most efficient or even the most passionate. What works a lot better is to go where the trends are favorable, and give customers solutions that align with the trends. And if you do this early, before anyone else, you’ll have a lot of time to figure out how to make money before competitors try to cut your margins!
Recognize that most “execution” is about preserving what happened in the past. Trying to do things better, faster and cheaper. But in a rapidly changing world, new competitors change the basis of competition. Amazon isn’t a better classical bookseller, or retailer. It’s a company that leveraged trends – market shifts – to take advantage of new technologies and new ways of people shopping. First for books and then other things. Later it built on trends toward digitization by augmenting the production of electronic publications, which is destined to change the world of book publishing altogether – and even has impact on the publishing of everything from periodicals to manuals. Amazon is now creating market shifts, which is changing the fortunes of others.
For investors, employees and suppliers you are better off to be with the company that shifts. It has the ability to grow with the trends. And the faster you get out of those companies which are stuck, locked-in to their old business model and practices in an effort to defend historical behaviors, the better off you’ll be. Despite the P/E multiples, or other claims of “value investing,” to succeed you’re a lot better off with the company that’s finding and building on trends than the ones managing costs.
by Adam Hartung | Aug 5, 2010 | Current Affairs, In the Whirlpool, Lifecycle, Lock-in, Web/Tech
“Blame Piles Up in Tribune Cos. 2007 Buyout” is the Chicago Tribune headline. After months of research the bankruptcy judge has released a court ordered report on the transaction that left Tribune Corporation insolvent. Apparently, lots of people were aware that ad demand was falling like a stone. And that there was little hope it would recover. But selling executives shopped for a valuation company until they found one willing to say that management’s projections were plausible. Of course, they weren’t. The transition from print to digital was well along, and the projections were never going to happen.
What’s more startling is the hubris of Sam Zell to close the deal. Apparently he too had doubts about the forecasts, but he went ahead and borrowed all that money to close. That he would ignore all the market signals, and plenty of opportunities to obtain outsider input on the likely continued demise of newspaper ads, shows he wanted to close. He wanted to control Tribune Corporation. Even if it would cost him $300m.
Success Formulas are very powerful. And successful entrepreneurs often have them so locked-in that there’s no other consideration. Success, and personal fortunes, causes them to ignore external data, and external opinions, when they fly in the face of their historical Success Formula. They want to apply it to a new business, and they are ready to go! So damn the torpedos! Full speed ahead!
It’s too bad that our hero worship of successful entrepreneurs too often leaves them insufficiently challenged. Unfortunately, a lot of people got hurt in the calamity that is now the Tribune Corporation bankruptcy. Employees have lost pay, benefits and jobs. Chicagoans have seen the paper get even smaller, and the amount of local news coverage decline. And the city’s reputation has certainly not benefited.
As much as people despise consultants, it would seem that Mr. Zell would have been a lot smarter to ask some bright strategists what the future was for the newspaper before abetting the close of such an onerous, and destructive, transaction. Outsiders, including consultants, are valuable at pointing out the range of potential outcomes – not just the one that fits your Success Formula. That’s why successful organizations use outsiders to help develop scenarios and study competitors, as well as design Disruptions and establish White Space projects. Outsiders can help overcome Lock-in to historical assumptions, biases, prejudice and viewpoints in order to reduce failures and improve success.
And this is some advice hopefully Leonard Riggio will heed. “Barnes & Noble Considering Sale of Company; Possible Buyers Include Founder Leonard Riggio” is the Chicago Tribune headline. Barnes & Noble as an acquisition looks a lot like Tribune did 3 years ago. Product sales (printed books) are in a free-fall as people choose alternative products – especially digital books and journals. Books themselves are struggling to avoid obsolescence as digital publishing makes shorter format more valuable in many instances. Brick and mortar shops focused on printed material – from bookstores to magazine/news stands – have been failing for 10 years – and in fact overall brick and mortar retail across the board has declined the last 4 years as internet retailing has grown. The leading competitor (Amazon) has led the transition to digital, and is competing with an enormously successful tech company (Apple) for the future of digital publishing. Barnes & Noble may have a fledgling product, but it’s about as competitive as a junior leaguer compared to someone on the Yankees!
The Success Formula of Barnes & Noble, as created by the original founder, is obsolete. And B&N is not in the game for where the marketplace is headed. Just because he knew the business once, years ago, gives the founder no leg-up on resurrecting the company. Contrarily, his background is a decided negative as he’s likely to attempt a “throwback” strategy. Since the world goes forward, never backward, those simply don’t work. We could expect lots of store closings, layoffs and inventory reductions – but the future of publishing has radically changed and will continue doing so, and B&N has little input on that outcome. Amazon, Apple and Google (the largest purveyor of digital words through its search engine) are the giants in this game and B&N will get crushed.
And the city of Milwaukee should consider hiring some consultants, as should Harley Davidson. “In Quest for Lower Cost Harley-Davidson Considers Leaving Milwaukee after 107 years” reports Chicago Tribune. Harley would like subsidies, from its workers (unions) as well as the city and state, to keep from moving its factories. But Harley’s problems are far worse than hourly wages for plant workers, and everyone needs to be careful not to get sucked into a Tribune Corp. deal of trying to save a floundering ship.
Harley Davidson’s product has been largely unchanged for a very long time. Despite all the hoopla about tattooed customers, for 30 years competitors Honda, Suzuki, Kawasaki and Yamaha have been innovating and running circles around Harley. Their businesses have grown. Not only by dramatically expanding their motorcycle products, but adding ATVs, snowmobiles, boat engines, automobiles, electric generators, yard equipment and a raft of other products (Honda even makes a commercial airplane!) They have brought in millions of new customers, while Harley’s customer base is eroding – largely dying off as the average age of buyers has risen to well over 50!!
While competitors have pushed forward with new technology and products, and developed new markets and customers, Harley has tried standing still. So, its now an historical anachronism. Interesting to look at, and with some intriguing niches, but not really important to the industry. Should Harley disappear nobody in the motorcycle business will really notice, because almost every competitor now has a Harley-inspired v-twin motorcycle they can sell. Few people realize that most dealers make more money selling jackets and other Harley-Licensed gear/apparel than motorcycles! Harley’s days have been numbered since they let the v-Rod, a motorcycle with a Porsche engine, languish in dealer showrooms – allowing their “customers” to keep them locked-in to aging technology at ever rising prices (they typical Harley prices for over 2x the price of a comparable Japanese produced motorcycle.) Harley should have paid more attention to competitors a long time ago (instead of deriding them as “rice burners”) and a lot less attention to those very loyal – but diminishing in numbers – dealers and end-use customers.
All 3 of these companies, Tribune, Barnes & Noble and Harley-Davidson have great pasts. But the risk is thinking that means anything about the future. Tribune was fatally harmed by adding debt to a company that needed to refocus on new internet markets, then continuing to try to keep the old Success Formula operating. Barnes & Noble is the last prominent brick and mortar book retailer, but there is little reason to think there will be a need for them in just 5 years. And Harley-Davidson every year appeals to a smaller group of buyers in a niche market with aged technology and a tiring brand. In all cases, caveat emptor! (Let the buyer beware!) Before accepting any management forecasts, it would be a good idea to get some external opinions!
by Adam Hartung | Aug 2, 2010 | Current Affairs, In the Swamp, Innovation, Leadership, Web/Tech, Weblogs
Things are tough for the printed word these days. Not for writing, or demand for information. That is doing great – with more volume than ever! But the issue is “printed” material. Clearly, the format is changing. But are business leaders changing with it?
The Los Angeles Times reported “Amazon.com Says It’s Selling 80% More Downloaded Books Than Hardcovers.” This is a big switch. Clearly Kindles are making a big difference as people are buying a lot less paper, and reading a lot more bits. Do you remember when your colleagues all said “I want a book, I don’t want to read looking at a screen?” Do you remember when businesspeople actually printed their emails? Clearly a sentiment gone by the wayside.
Accuracy in Media reported “U.S. Newspaper Circulation Dropped 30% Since ’07.” And it’s a global phenomenon, with the U.K. down 25%, Greece 20%, Italy 18% and Canada 17%. Fully 2/3 of major countries are seeing newspaper demand decline. No wonder Tribune Corporation, publisher of The Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times and Baltimore Sun, as well as others, is having such a hard time emerging from bankruptcy. Every month this looks more like the buggy whip business. Can you really expect the company to survive?
Amidst this backdrop, magazines have a dire future. I can remember when browsing magazines was the norm, and trade magazines arrived in my inbox daily. Often 60 or 100 page affairs. No longer. Magazines have disappeared like rain in the Sahara. Their savior is supposedly to go digital, but according to TwistedImage.com magazine leaders are at a loss how to proceed. In “The Media Disruption Within” Mitch Joel describes how a panel of magazine publishers are approaching the industry change mostly with despair that the internet is here – and no concerted effort to define a new model. Lock-in was prevalent as they kept hoping for a return to the good old days for print publishers, which we know is never going to happen.
So today the New York Post reported “Mag Publishers, Apple in Subscription App Scrap.” Most of us can acquire newspapers for an iPad issue by issue – but subscriptions aren’t possible. The magazine fears it will be the big loser – and rightfully so. If Apple controls the subscription and delivery, why couldn’t it repackage? Where would Apple stop, and what value would the magazine actually deliver? Since iTunes changed music buying, how many people buy albums? It would require the editors and publishers be really sharp to know their market – something most gave up a long time ago when they turned to focusing on narrow content for their “core product” and trying to maintain their “core competency.” Neither of which are very “core” any more.
We all want news that’s exactly what we want, and we’ll simply go to Google to get it. Who published it isn’t nearly as important to readers any more. Nor is the packaging. Pretty soon Amazon via Kindle, Apple via iPad, and we can expect a Google tablet to do the same, can start packaging up the chapters of various books for readers giving them just what they want. And with that they can link off to source articles from newspapers and magazine archives – or to current events. The role of publisher will get a lot less clear, as writers and editors can go directly to the electronic distributor with content.
Into this fray is an interesting new approach reported by CNBC.com, “Rupert Murdoch’s New Digital Game Changer?” The claim is that News Corp. is preparing an all-new interactive product designed just for on-line and mobile users. It wouldn’t be a re-treaded newspaper. Text, photo and video designed just for the medium. Now that would be the right way to go about preparing for 2020. Unfortunately, the way News Corp. handled MySpace.com doesn’t give us a lot of comfort this will be a truly White Space project. But if it is, it might just be the start of toward the product which will be journalism in 2020.
If you’re in publishing you have no choice but to get White Space going. The intermediaries – from the tech companies to new-age publishers like HuffingtonPost.com – are moving forward. The business as it used to be is gone. But the demand for news – for content – is bigger than ever. It will require a new business model. A new Success Formula. And this is clearly a case of change or die. The world will never again be as it previously was.
Even if you don’t think of yourself as a publisher – you probably are. Do you put out customer literature – like user or repair manuals? Do you put out sales literature? Do you communicate with investors or industry analysts? If so, how do you “publish” your material? Paper? Packaged pdf? In today’s world, an advantage can be created by moving quickly to what’s new.
Today there are a plethora of luxury automobiles on the market. These beautifully high tech luxury machines have manuals that can run 500+ pages! It is impossible to figure out how anything works by trying the manual! Why don’t manufacturers of $60,000+ cars have a Kindle (or iPad) built into the console? Those cost less than a set of brake pads today, they can be updated automatically, and are interactive.
Are you thinking about how you could use a $100 device to make life easier for your customers and supply chain partners? Or are you printing? If you’re printing, what’s your budget? How much would you save if your salespeople, customers, etc. were given a Kindle? Or iPad? Can you afford not to be thinking differently about your future?
