by Adam Hartung | Dec 11, 2006 | General, In the Rapids, Innovation, Leadership, Openness
The Phoenix Principle is not just for big or old companies. Any business, even small and family owned ones, can greatly increase their success using The Phoenix principle. And a great all-American example of this is NASCAR and the phenomenal growth it has achieved. (Read more about the success of NASCAR here.)
Forty years ago stock car racing was tied closely to blue collar guys with a set of wrenches and a desire to drive faster than the cops would allow – without getting caught. When we went to watch stock cars on hot nights you got muscled-up street cars driven with a fair bit of abandon. Most races were interspersed with local beauty pagents, and more than an occasional demolition derby. Sometimes you wondered if you came for the races, or for the crashes. A good time to watch, but not the stuff of big business. Not, at least, until the France family decided to try some new things.
The elder Mr. France realized that by linking all these fans to sponsors there could be money in this sport. As long as anyone could drive, the purse would be low and the competition would be less than stellar. So he didn’t start with cars, instead he started buiding his own tracks, where the environment could be safe and he could control who got on the track and what they drove. Then he helped good drivers find sponsors who would pay for the cars in exchange for advertising. Using personalities like Richard Petty, France slowly took stock car racing from broken down Pontiacs ready for the salvage yard (and modified cars coming from Detroit’s auto companies) into the world of Winston Cup Racing. And big money brought faster cars, better drivers and more fans. All of these ideas born of his family’s imagination and a relentless effort to find ways to get the winning purses up.
Now, his son Brian France is continuing to innovate. It’s no longer Winston Cup – with ties to cigarettes, the South, and old fashioned notions of stock car racing. Now its the Nextel Cup with ties to being national, technology, and innovation. And he truly understands the importance of recognizing Challenges and breeding White Space. As he said "The time to make changes in my view is when you don’t have to. If you’ve got a situation where you have to change, that’s a much tougher environment. You get more momentum when you don’t have to change." Now those are great words of advice for businesses seeking growth and long-term success.
Did you know that NASCAR racing is the second most watched television sport in the U.S.? (Surpassed only by the NFL). But if you go to the track (owned by France, don’t forget) you get even more. Attendees can actually get visuals from inside the car – see the race like the driver does – while getting real time stats on the race. And Mr. France is constantly pushing for changes in cars, including recently allowing Toyota to race on what has long been considered the asphalt dedicated to "big American iron." Why? Well, after all, have you seen "The Fast and the Furious"? All those young fans are driving a very different "hot car" than I grew up with – and they want to see on the track what they get in and drive home! It’s all part of trying new things, seeing what will work, and moving forward.
Seventy-Five years ago America’s sport was baseball. Babe Ruth and Joe Dimaggio, then Mickey Mantle and Roger Marris dominated our lives. Now, it’s a much more competitive world for athletic entertainment. Football, basketball, and hockey have all become major U.S. sports. Every four years the World Cup of soccer gets more U.S. fans as the children of "soccer moms" grow up. Golf has seen another emergence as Tiger Woods has reinvigorated watchers. It would have been easy for stock car racing to simply become a niche like watching billiards, darts or horseshoe pitching. But it’s not. And it’s not because this family-owned business recognized the Challenges which existed in attracting fans, Disrupted itself by constantly seeking out new sponsors and new competitive dynamics, and never stopped using White Space to find a better Success Formula that would help it grow.
The opportunity exists for any family-owned company to be long-lived and highly successful. And if you follow the model of the France family you could find your business very successful indeed. It’s not about vision and dedication. It’s about experimenting, feeling paranoid about competition, and never stopping the use of White Space to find a better Success Formula.
by Adam Hartung | Dec 4, 2006 | Defend & Extend, General, In the Swamp, Leadership, Lifecycle, Lock-in
So what business is Sears in? I don’t think anyone knows any more. But it is certain that without a direction, Sears will burn through its cash and leave shareholders with nothing soon enough.
After months of whipping Sears management in this blog for extending its Lock-in to failing retailing practices, in my last Sears post I recognized that I finally could see the management team was milking Sears and KMart of cash. They weren’t trying to actually compete with Target, JC Penneys, Kohl’s and WalMart. They are interested in pulling as much cash out of Sears and KMart as possible. Recently the Chicago Tribune reported (see article here) that Sears was in fact using its "excess cash" to invest in derivatives. Buying into the equities of other companies in a fashion so that no one, not even Sears’ investors, would know what Mr. Lampert and his team is buying.
What’s wrong with this picture? Well, to start with, businesses no longer have some extended lifetime where they can sit back and "clip the coupons" as they rake in the cash. Sure that was possible in the less dynamic era from the 1940’s through the 1970s when competition was dominated by huge players (like Sears) who grabbed market share and then simply held onto it by erecting barriers to competition. But today the flow of products, money and information is so fast that no barrier actually holds back the tide of competition. Sears and KMart have to contend with all the old competitors, all the emerging new traditional retailers, and all the on-line retailers. And they are doing so without the benefit of a powerful supply chain like WalMart. When you go to "milk" the business, the poor cow finds itself malnourished and no longer producing a lot faster than most people predict. WalMart is too busy cutting prices to feed its machine, while Target and Kohls are out finding the latest new products and fashion goods. There isn’t much of a storehouse of value in a brand when everyone can see the number of stores declining, the costs and prices rising, and the employees less satisfied than at competitors. "Milking" the business was a strategy for the 1980’s and before – not really applicable today.
And is Mr. Lampert’s team using this cash flow to invest in something where they can achieve competitive advantage? Well, we simply don’t know. All we know is he’s investing in lots of derivatives – and hiding his investments from anyone to see. What’s wrong with this picture? Well, firstly, do investors have a right to know how their money is invested? I seem to recall investor information being a bedrock of importance to publicly traded companies.
"But what about Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway?" you may ask. Alas, we know that the go-go era of Berkshire Hathaway was at a time when Mr. Buffett and his cash stockpiles could be used to rescue situations where management was somewhat desperate. He offered a White Knight approach to helping those with cash needs to rebuild their business. But today, with the flourishing of Private Equity and Hedge Funds the marketplace is awash in dealmakers with lower capital costs hunting for the kinds of opportunities that were delivered to Mr. Buffett for most of the 1980s and 1990s. The value of such opportunities has shrunk so low that even Mr. Buffett himself, in the Berkshire annual reports, has stated that there are insufficient opportunities for him to keep Berkshire’s capital effectively employed for investors.
Beyond deals, Berkshire Hathaway has made almost all its money in insurance. Berkshire is a primary player in the sophisticated, and highly analytical, world of insurance underwriting and re-insurance (that’s insuring the insurers). Several times Mr. Buffett has explained that the primary profit generator for Berkshire comes from understanding risk and insurance products and knowing how to be the low-cost player in the insurance business. Something Berkshire has mastered and maintained for over 20 years. His investments in other companies, such as Pier One, have done no better than the overall marketplace – and at times far worse. In the end, his whole acquisitions of companies such as Dairy Queen have produced cash for investing into insurance – a target business where Berkshire Hathaway is not only low cost but also the most innovative company in the industry.
So where does that leave Sears? Their plans to "milk" the Kmart and Sears stores for cash I don’t buy into at all. As every quarter has demonstrated, revenues are falling and costs are rising faster than management can predict. Opportunities to sell the real estate into a REIT or other cash producer have not developed, and the real estate market has long ago peaked. Its plan to be a public "hedge fund" holds little promise of long-term above average returns or growth in an ever increasingly competitive world for "deals" where they are no better than any other sharp team of MBAs with a lot of cash from a pension fund or elsewhere. And there is no business, like Buffett’s insurance, where Sears management team claims to have any leadership or innovation.
Otherwise, Sears is a great company. The fact is, management has not really stepped up to any of the Challenges which faces the company in retailing, or in hedge fund investing or in identifying a new business which can grow and return above average profits for years into the future. There is no White Space at Sears, no effort to find a new business with advantage. Right now, Sears is just a vainglorious story of a CEO who wants to spend other people’s money. As Cramer says on Mad Money "You buy Sears to buy into my friend Eddie Lampert." With a below market average Return on Equity of 10.7%, a low Return on Assets of 3.9% and an above average Price/Earnings multiple of 22 – that’s a very risky buy.
by Adam Hartung | Nov 30, 2006 | General, In the Swamp, Innovation, Leadership, Lock-in
WalMart prides itself on great execution. For years management has bragged about the company’s ability to get things done quickly and cheaply. But now the company has run into problems. Revenue growth has slowed, and the future is very unclear. A five year stock chart shows declining equity value of about $80billion. WalMart is finding out that when innovating, it’s execution skills are greatly lacking.
This week it was reported (see Tribune article here) that WalMart is going to report that it’s November sales actually FELL for the first time in a decade. This is just the latest in a string of bad news. Included is the fact that WalMart is planning to cut back its expansion plans in response to its declining year-over-year same store sales. The company’s foray into more trendy fashion goods has flopped, with those products being pulled. It’s taking on the drug retailers with flat price generic pharmaceuticals – largely to a market yawn. Net – WalMart monthly sales are up only half of Target‘s (who’s 5 year chart shows they found the $80B Walmart lost).
Readers of this blog know I’ve long stated that WalMart‘s future is dicey for investors and employees. Totally Locked In to its strategy of low cost, management has pruned any skills at innovation. Long gone are the people who in the 1960s helped Sam Walton pioneer the innovations to drive the low cost strategy. So now, when it needs to innovate, WalMart doesn’t have the right people to do the job. To paraphrase an old southern expression "even if the mind is willing, the flesh is weak."
WalMart desperately needs to change. But to do that the company needs to implement White Space. It needs to first own up to its Challenges. It needs to tell employees, vendors, investors and customers that they see a need to change and fully intend to. Then management needs to put in place a team that has the permission to develop a new Success Formula, reporting directly to the CEO (outside the existing management system), and fund that team with enough resources to really try something different. All these piecemeal ideas are getting lost in failed implementations by an organization too massive and tightly directed to do anything more than run the old Success Formula. The White Space group needs permission to develop a new store concept. To test things their own way and prove out the new Success Formula – not just a new tactic here or there. And then, instead of trying to push the tactic into the massive WalMart the company must migrate the traditional stores toward what works in the new Success Formula.
WalMart has done this right before. Sam’s Club is a huge success – a pioneer in the club store concept. There WalMart followed all the rules of White Space and created a Success Formula that worked.
If they will hire some new managers, and give them the kind of White Space they gave the Sam’s Club team, WalMart could migrate toward a more successful future in a matter of months. But if management keeps doing all these tactical actions they’ll only succeed in confusing everyone. Much to all of our dismay.
by Adam Hartung | Nov 10, 2006 | General, In the Rapids, Innovation, Leadership, Lifecycle, Openness
I’ve long said that any company can innovate and grow. ANY company. This week we saw an example of a stodgy company, in one of the stodgiest industries, explain how it’s possible to take the steps toward improving its long term success. That company is Allstate – best known for it’s insurance business and its decades old tag line "your in good hands with Allstate." (See complete Chicago Tribune article here.)
I’m optimistic about Allstate, and do think it shows a high likelihood of outperforming its peers. And not because I think they have better underwriters, better risk managers and better agents. Nor because they are looking at all kinds of new products like pet insurance and identity theft insurance, as well as others. Nor because they are planning to roll out new "hipper" office decor.
I’m optimistic because the fellow who’s taking over as CEO shows the willingness to create and manage White Space within Allstate. Starting in 1999, Thomas Wilson took a look at Allstate Financial and wondered why it only sold unregistered products like life insurance and annuities rather than a larger suite of products including mutual funds. He could have studied on this question, pondered the potential market, hired consultants and generally analyzed the question unendingly. But, instead, in his own words he said to the unit leaders "Here’s $10million. Talk to me every two weeks."
With this small act ($10million is relatively small in a $33billion company) and short directive he created White Space in Allstate. He gave the unit permission to try new things, and the funds to execute. He also had the unit report to him, not somewhere down in the company where potential product line conflicts would eventually destroy the innovations. And he started his experiments in an important business, but not the legacy business, so that this unit could demonstrate success without contradicting too rapidly or strongly existing Lock-in.
He did it again in 2003. After decades of advertising, Mr. Wilson felt the advertising was insufficient and ineffective. So he tripled the budget, and told the ad agency to put in place a new team to develop a new program. Not an incremental act, but instead the granting of permission to try something new and plenty of budget to make it work. And again, he took responsibility.
Mr. Wilson wasn’t "born and raised" in Allstate. He worked in accounting, venture capital, investment banking and even the oil business (Amoco – later bought by British Petroleum [BP]) before joining this venerable company. That may have helped him to see the need for White Space, and to take actions to create it at this huge, analytically-driven company. Whatever has driven his actions, like a cross town fellow CEO Ed Zander at Motorola, Thomas Wilson is imbuing Allstate with White Space, and that portends very good things for investors, employees and customers.
by Adam Hartung | Oct 25, 2006 | Defend & Extend, General, In the Swamp, Lifecycle, Lock-in
Wal-Mart has started selling prescriptions priced at $4 for a month’s supply (see article here.) Why? To get more people into the stores, silly. As I’ve blogged before, the world’s biggest retailer has the world’s biggest Lock-in, and they will do anything they can think of to keep their Success Formula unchanged. Now they are looking to drastically cut prescription prices.
This is good news for consumers. But what about Walgreens? After all, they have prescription sales as a central part of their Success Formula. What was their reaction? To say they aren’t worried, because Wal-Mart is a small player in prescriptions. In other words "we’re Locked into our Success Formula, and we don’t intend to change it no matter how large the Challenge." In the face of mounting pressure by insurance companies to force insureds to order medicine on-line, and corporate support for mail-based prescription delivery, and now a frontal assault by the world’s biggest retailer Lock-in allows Walgreens to blithely look the other way.
This is bad for investors in both companies. We now have two large companies planning to club each other to the bitter end in a battle to see who’s Success Formula can survive. Along the periphery of this fight are other retailers, like CVS, Target and KMart each ignoring the Challenge to their future (according to Associated Press [see here]some have said they don’t think this is an issue because customers with insurance only care about the co-pay and not the price) holding their own clubs and planning to defend themselves while putting in a few good licks as they seek to protect their individual Success Formulas.
This is simply bad management. There is nothing but hubris in undertaking such tactics. Smart management sees the Challenges, and reacts early. They avoid the club fight altogether, seeking out new markets where they can prosper. Only competitors who are Locked-in, and would rather take hits and possibly die would take on such a fight. The result of fighting is someone eventually falls into the Whirlpool and is swept away.
Again, for consumers such club fights can be a great cost saving opportunity. But for investors, it’s time to get out of the way! You don’t want to be an idle participant in the latest bloody version of business WWF Crackdown. You’ll most likely come out a bloody mess yourself.
by Adam Hartung | Oct 7, 2006 | Defend & Extend, General, In the Swamp, Leadership, Lock-in
If you don’t live in Chicago or Los Angeles you might have missed a recent set of stories about problems in the newspaper industry. The Tribune company (owner of Chicago Tribune and 9 other papers) also owns the LATimes. Like the New York Times company, Dow Jones and many other newspaper companies, the last 2 years has seen the equity value of Tribune plummet. Newspaper margins have been narrowing, caused by rising competition from new entrants, such as Google and other on-line sources as well as more nimble local competitors and brazen new business models from the likes of oil and railroad billionaire Philip Anschutz (articles here, here, and here). All traditional competitors have been cutting costs, including big layoffs.
Recently, this created an enormous bruhaha between the publisher and top editor at the LATimes and the owners in Chicago. This week things took another difficult step as the Tribune fired the LATimes publisher (article here) for outspokenly disagreeing with top management. The newspapers are reporting on themselves as they discuss the difficulties being encountered inside the executive suite – as well as by competitors (additional coverage here).
The problem is that these companies are following other large newspapers in trying to wring more blood out of the proverbial stone. Margins are down, and the answer they’re trying to implement is "more, better, faster" of what they always did. But, as the fired Times publisher recognized, when you try to get more out of a broken business model by working it faster and harder, all you get is worse results quicker. You can’t fix a failing Success Formula by trying to operate it better, or faster, or with fewer resources. Those actions just help you fail faster.
The problems in these newspapers, like all newspapers, relate to more competition for readership from the internet and other targeted news products. The old big-city newspaper "natural monopoly" has been erased by these new players. As a result, subscribers are declining – especially in coveted younger demographics (see article on shifting readershipfrom 2005! here). That leads to lower advertising rates and dollars, because who will pay for declining readership? Why pay $75 for a classiifed ad for your used cars when you get one, with pictures, from Vehix.com for $39? Why buy full page movie ads for one shot at viewership when you can get a week of repeated hits on Yahoo!? So ad dollars have been moving to on-line media, and other new competitors. All the fighting inside the newspaper companies about how many writers, or copy-editors or salespeople to lay off this quarter or next does not address the broken Success Formula. It only creates a huge opportunity for the new competitors to continue stealing customers and growing.
Lock-in can kill any business. Even the most venerable. When market Challenges emerge that create a need to redefine the Success Formula, only the companies that Disrupt themselves and move into White Space will re-create success. More, Better, Faster just creates more problems, and a vicious cycle that eventually leads to the Whirlpool of failure. The LATimes has had 12 publishers in 120 years – and now 3 of those have been put in place in the last 5 years by the Tribune company. Changing the captain will not change the destiny of a ship Locked-in on a course headed right for an iceberg.
by Adam Hartung | Sep 29, 2006 | General, In the Rapids, Innovation, Openness
As I talk with various groups many tell me that they simply can’t see any White Space opportunities in their area. I tell them the opportunity is always there, you just have to see it. Their problem is too many people try to "think outside the box." What they need to do is "Get outside the box, now think."
A great recent example comes to us from education. For all our uproar about education in America, and expressions of concern, little has changed in the last 50 years. Lock-in still dominates, and most of us see our children going through the same steps as we did. Meanwhile, we know that other countries, India in particular, are finding ways to educate more people to higher levels faster and cheaper than we are. But, when our education professionals get into meetings they mostly come up with minor improvements to the existing system.
Reuters reported today (see article here) that Americans can get tutoring now for as little as $2.50/hour. By going on-line, and using a combination of web tools and internet phone service, our children can receive quality 1-on-1 tutoring, by professionals with master’s degrees in the subject area, every single day for only $100/month. This is about what one hour of traditional face-to-face tutoring costs. And those students who are using the resource are findng huge value.
Of course, these tutors are in India.
Our education professionals are trying to solve problems by "thinking outside the box." Their obvious problem is that when you’re in the box it’s really impossible to think outside. At best, you can push on the sides a little and consider small improvements. But everything about the box keeps you Locked-in to the old Success Formula.
The founders of these offshore services used the approach of "Get outside the Box, now think!". By going offshore, by viewing the capabilities of new technologies without focusing on limitations, and by omitting the concerns created by traditional Lock-in, they identified a new Success Formula. And then, they didn’t try to launch this in the U.S, or with traditional education suppliers. Instead, they developed their own approaches for marketing, distribution and sales. Removed from the Lock-ins (removed from "the box") they were able to develop new solutions.
We all can benefit from getting outside the box. Existing industry conferences and trade shows are primarily focused on Defending & Extending the existing Success Formula. To see new ideas, to identify White Space opportunities, you need to move beyond those forums. You have to find some new terrain for the conversation. Take a trip to India, China or the Phillipines, and visit with companies that have a whole different approach to what you’ve done. And instead of looking for why it won’t work, see if you can create some White Space to try and make it work.
You won’t find White Space if you stay inside "the box." Get outside the box, go to nontraditional sources, and then start thinking about how to make it work. There’ll you find your opportunities for White Space.
by Adam Hartung | Sep 21, 2006 | Defend & Extend, General, In the Rapids, In the Swamp, Innovation, Lifecycle, Lock-in, Openness
On my web site I have a case study comparing Motorola and McDonald’s (download paper here.) As a reader of this BLOG, it won’t surprise you to guess that I think Motorola is a company for the future, and one into which you should consider investing, while McDonald’s is so horribly Locked-in to its past that I see precious little chance it will remain a great company.
Just look at today’s newspaper for further verification. Motorola has announced the launch of a new vending machine to sell mobile phones and accessories (see article here.) Now this might seem pretty bizarre. Who would buy a mobile phone from a vending machine? Honestly, I don’t know who and I know it won’t be me. But, I am impressed. It takes organizational flexibility, a willingness to see market challenges to conventional distribution, an openness to Disrupting old behaviors and the capability to experiment with changes to the Success Formula to try this. The idea had to be created, it had to move through the organization, receive permission for testing and get funding to make it to market. These are all traits of a company trying to stay in the Rapids, trying to maintain its growth, and organized to create and use White Space. While not all projects in such companies succeed, long term the companies do generate higher growth and long-term above average rates of returns.
Meanwhile, today McDonald’s announced their next big idea was to start selling Egg McMuffins all day (see article here.) Now there’s a big dash of creativity! The epitome of Defend & Extend Management, the company is so Locked-in to its old Success Formula it actually considers it exciting, newsworthy and innovative to simply consider expanding the hours it sells an existing, and decades old, product. I doubt Starbucks is quaking with worries about this change impacting their growth. Even by a consultant’s best estimate this will be considered a success if it adds a mere 3% to 5% to the bottom line. What tremendous ambition!
Motorola is Disruptive, willing to create White Space and test new ideas. Who knows what the value of alternative distribution for mobile phones is – such as a point of purchase vending machine. But they are willing to test the idea and see. Maybe it will turn out to be something that young people, or travelers, or some segment really wants. Meanwhile, McDonald’s is doing more of the same, and bragging about how hard it is to actually pull off this simple time-of-day extension for an existing product.
by Adam Hartung | Sep 20, 2006 | Disruptions, General, In the Rapids, Innovation, Leadership, Lifecycle, Openness
I recently blogged about the way Honda managed to be in so many markets, from lawn mowers to airplanes. Maybe not focused, just consistently growing revenues and profits. A very good thing for employees, suppliers, investors and customers.
In that vein, I was delighted yesterday to hear that Motorola is buying Symbol Technologies. Most analysts thought the acquisition "ho-hum" (see Chicago Tribune article here). But they should be excited, because in fact it demonstrates another clear move into White Space.
Most people would think of Motorola as a cell phone manufacturer. And there is no doubt that is their largest business. So, analysts get excited when Motorola talks about cell phones. But there is so much more to Motorola. Their last big acquisition was General Instrument in 2000 (before Ed Zander took over), growing their dominant business in set-top boxes and helping them grow their DVR business. Remember a fast-growing gadget called TiVo? That’s a DVR.
Now, Symbol gets Motorola into bar code readers, mobile computers and enterprise software for inventory management and retail. Included in this business is RFID systems, a new market that lots of people are trying to develop. You could challenge this kind of acquisition as being "off focus", but then you wouldn’t understand the importance of White Space. Here Motorola has just bought itself a nice business, at a good price, that it can use to explore expanding technologies and solutions for people on trucks, in warehouses, using all kinds of wireless technology. New markets, new technologies, new solutions – and even more important new customers.
This is not one of those "restructuring" acquisitions intended to drive up revenue through industry consolidation. This is bona fide expansion into new markets, and creation of more White Space. An effort that can create Disruption opportunities and help define a new Success Formula. All hallmarks of what has been turning Motorola around the last few months. Bravo to management for doing the right thing again!
by Adam Hartung | Sep 17, 2006 | Defend & Extend, Disruptions, General, Lock-in, Openness
I am not terribly mechanically inclined. Yes, I do work on lots of things I own, but I do not consider myself a skilled professional.
I was surprised recently when my 18 year old son told me he was going to buy an old Jeep. "But you already have an old Jeep I bought you" I said. "Yes," he told me "but I want the transmission out of this other one because it is much better for my V-8 than the original one installed. I can switch these transmissions and it will be better for both vehicles, and I should make some money on the situation."
I immediately recognized that this was not a simple job. Heck, he was talking about switching transmissions in two vehicles from different years with different engines and other configuration issues. What if things didn’t line up? What if they didn’t fit? "Son," I said "this is no simple job. I’m afraid it is beyond my skills these days. Do you know what you’re doing?"
To which I got a tremendous answer. "No dad," he said "I’m not sure what it will take. But I have enough money to pull off the job, even if things go really wrong and I have to change the clutch and many other parts. I have lined up a consultant (a professional mechanic) who will advise me on problems. And even though I’m not sure what to do, I’m confident I can figure it out. And, when I’m done, the Jeep I buy will be worth at least what I paid for it and my Jeep will be worth a lot more. I just need permission to tear into it."
Voila! White Space was requested. He didn’t have all the answers, but he was certain he could figure it out. And he had prepared all the resources. Not only to do the job, but what he would do for transportation while his machine was under repair. He had created personal White Space, and all he needed was to Disrupt my Lock-in – my Lock-in that said such a job required a "professional."
Now the transmissions are switched, and things are better all around. Why? Because he created some personal White Space – and I accepted the need for a little Disruption.
