by Adam Hartung | May 24, 2006 | Defend & Extend, In the Swamp, Leadership, Lock-in
According to an old Greek legend, thunder was the sound of giants falling in battles in the sky. There’s been plenty of thunder in the tech world lately. Dell Computer, not even a decade ago considered one of the most admired American companies, has seen its market value decline by more than 40% since last summer. Over the same period, Intel has fallen by almost the same amount.
Both of these companies have the same problem – they focused on optimizing their strategies too long, and they have missed important market shifts. They let their Lock-in to an old Success Formula keep them from installing White Space to keep them evergreen.
Dell has long said it has the best supply chain in its industry. It prided itself that it could take an order, make the machine, ship it and get the cash before it had to pay its vendors. Companies globally marveled at this optimized machine, and sought insight to copy it. But, now competitors have learned to copy Dell – and Dell has not developed any new markets that will allow it to continue its growth in revenues and profits. Earnings are down, and there’s no obvious plan for a turnaround. The company CEO has said that he plans to invest more in the same old business model, hoping results will turn around.
Meanwhile, "Intel Inside" – the famous tag line, isn’t on as many boxes as it used to be. Long suffering, and much smaller rival AMD has been winning over customers from Intel. Although this is largely in high-end multiprocessor servers (rather than desktop or laptop PCs), and AMD still only has about 20% of this market, people are legitimately concerned that Intel may really suffer, as once predicted by its famous CEO Andy Grove when he said that "Only the Paranoid Survive." Even stalwart Dell, long a 100% Intel user, has switched to AMD of late.
Both companies point to just how easy it is for even very successful companies to succomb to Lock-in on their old Success Formula. How easy it is to overlook market Challenges as they focus internally on optimization. And, how they can begin Defending & Extending the old Success Formula rather than seeking Disruptions to it and maintaining aggressive use of White Space to spur innovation and maintain growth.
Just like Wal-Mart, any company can become too focused on its Success Formula – even those in high-tech. History has shown that when this happens, the future risk is incredible. Remember Compaq, DEC, Wang, Unisys – and even what happened to IBM in the 1980s? Dell and Intel must react to their market Challenges quickly, because if they stall the losses this far are just a start to what could be an even more painful decline.
by Adam Hartung | May 16, 2006 | Defend & Extend, In the Swamp, In the Whirlpool, Leadership, Lifecycle, Lock-in
If you want your business to be a success, attracting employees and investors alike, there’s a simple solution. You need to both grow and earn an above average rate of return. It’s the ability to both grow and make money that is attractive. But for too many executives they see these as a trade-off. And they give up growth in the pursuit of profits.
Do you remember the advertising jingle "Nobody Doesn’t Like Sara Lee"? Well lately, a lot of people have taken to not liking Sara Lee. The company has lost about half its value since the late 1990s, and it is currently valued about where it was in the mid-1990s. Since installing a new CEO and turnaround team about a year ago the company’s investors have not be encouraged.
The new leadership has chosen to implement an aggressive asset sales campaign. Rather than Disrupt the failing business by attacking Lock-in and creating White Space to innovate new solutions, they chose to try and sell their problems to someone else. They also began closing plants as they blamed poor results on industry overcapacity. The result has been disappointing prices for these assets, as others refuse to pay high for troubled brands and businesses. The executives chose to stick with their old Success Formula, despite the poor results, claiming the payoff would be in the future.
The asset sales have continued, but the results have still not materialized. Earnings have dropped 78%, and analysts such as Morningstar are saying that Sara Lee is struggling to capture any benefits from its restructuring. Nonetheless, the new management team is convinced it can follow classic industry practices, such as changing its ad campaign on Jimmy Dean Sausage, in its jouney to find improved results. The executive team is adamant that they must stick to their original plan.
So revenues are down, employment is down, valuation is down – and earnings are down. All in the quest for a quick improvement in profits. And there is no growth, as Sara Lee is making itself significantly smaller. Profits vs. Growth is destroying Sara Lee. What they will have to do is realize that what’s needed is a Disruption, an attack on the industry Lock-ins that are driving this failing program, and implementing White Space where they can find a new solution – if they want people to once again like Sara Lee.
by Adam Hartung | May 12, 2006 | Disruptions, General, In the Rapids, Leadership, Openness
Last week Starbucks beat analyst estimates as profit rose 27%. Same store sales were up 10%, the 57th consecutive quarter of sales increases in stores open a year or more. Starbucks now has over 11,000 stores. It has opened 900 so far this year, and will open 900 more before year ends. This is definitely one heck of a growth story, and the company stock has soared 7-fold in the last 5 years.
No company can achieve that kind of growth without significant Disruptions, and lots of White Space. Starbucks has no end to the many flavor varieties of coffee it offers. But, it also offers tea and has seen tremendous growth from Green Tea of late. And to keep promoting itself, the company did an advertising first as it gave away (as in free) 500,000 beverages on March 14 just to remind people it’s spring and time to get out and enjoy the Starbucks stores. And in Chicago, they are starting to sell hot sandwiches – a new test for growth.
Starbucks is not just a coffee shop, of course. Their coffee (as beans and ground) is available in grocery stores, and they are the #1 market player in prepared coffee with their Frappucino, Iced Coffee and DoubleShot drinks, bottled and distributed by Pepsi. You also can get Starbucks Ice Cream and Frappucino bars in most markets. And for the late night adult crowd there’s now Starbucks Coffee Liqueur at the liquor store.
But, the Starbucks White Space goes far beyond the beverages for which they are famous. Starbucks has emerged as a major player in the music business. In 2005, they demonstrated their growth skills as they launched and were the #1 distributor for Ray Charles final release Genius Loves Company. Unbeknownst to many, Starbucks has a music division. Of course it creates all its own in-store music – and offers that on CD. But it also is a major force behind bringing new acts to market and distributing major artists such as Alanis Morissette, ColdPlay and the Dave Mathews Band. Starbucks has even inked an agreement with the famed William Morris Agency to find new talent for them to release.
And Starbucks just co-produced the LionsGate movie Akeelah and the Bee. Although it has gotten off to a sluggish start, the mere fact that Starbucks is into movie production demonstrates the lattitude with which the company will use White Space to drive new business opportunities. Look for tie-ins and promotions in your local store.
Could you imagine CD’s or movies made and distributed by McDonald’s? Or purchasing a frozen Pizza Hut pizza at your grocer? Why not? Any company can keep itself constantly Disrupted and filled with White Space. And for that, you will be rewarded with growth, and a high P/E multiple for investors. And you can provide ALL of your employees with benefits, even health benefits for part-timers (hear that Wal-Mart?). Everyone wins when you avoid the tendency to Lock-in on your first Success Formula and instead focus on White Space.
by Adam Hartung | Apr 28, 2006 | Defend & Extend, In the Swamp, Innovation, Leadership, Lifecycle, Lock-in
Believe it or not, in 1985 Apple sold more personal computers than all the Microsoft-based machines combined. Hard to imagine that 20 years later. By the mid-1990s almost everyone in TechLand considered Apple a non-player. Apple had become a small, niche company with limited customers using their machines for only particular applications – usually graphic intensive. Microsoft had "checked" Apple by the mid-90’s, and the vast majority of investors had considered the game over.
However, today Microsoft revealed a serious stumble. They have announced (see article) that costs are up, and profits are not going to meet expectations. Not this year nor next year. Microsoft investors have gotten nothing (other than a one-time $3 dividend) for holding their investment for the last several years. The company’s stock price reached current levels way back in 1998. Microsoft has stalled, while Apple is in the throes of a great renaissance. Apple’s value is up 2x to 3x over the same timeframe.
Not many companies do what Apple did – coming back from the brink of failure. But those that do rely upon the techniques Apple used. An internal Disruption used to face up to market Challenges, followed by installing White Space which is used to identify and develop new opportunities.
Lots of companies do what Microsoft is doing. During the heyday, high growth environment for PCs, from the 1980s through the 1990s, Microsoft developed a Success Formula. As it grew, Microsoft Locked-in that Success Formula with its culture, its structure and its costs. Microsoft optimized itself around the market conditions (the environment) that helped it succeed and grow while its first market was in rapid expansion.
Now, the markets are changing. This is creating new Challenges. Apple is using Disruptions and White Space to react to these Challenges and create enhanced value (for employees, suppliers, customers and investors). Microsoft is busy trying to Defend & Extend its past Success Formula. It’s trying to use its old skills to take on emerging new Challengers Google and Yahoo!. Microsoft is stalled, and if it doesn’t follow Apple’s lead, Microsoft could end up in with even more serious problems.
Any company can stall. All it takes is Lock-in to an old Success Formula. Then, a market shift can open the door for new competitors. The answer is to Disrupt yourself and use White Space to find a new Success Formula that meets new market requirements. Not "more, better, faster" of the old Success Formula – that leads to rising costs, poorer returns and the unlikely hope that the past will repeat itself.
by Adam Hartung | Apr 25, 2006 | General, In the Rapids, Innovation, Leadership, Lifecycle, Openness
Would you get into the wireless phone business today? Can you think of a more cutthroat competitive marketplace than cell phones? Can you think of a market that has more disappointed investors than mobile communications – voice or data? If I told you a company was getting into mobile communications, you’d probably say "good luck." And then you’d make sure you don’t have that stock in your portfolio.
Unless the company is Apple. Last week the reporters started talking about Apple’s potential jump into cellular phone service (see article). For most companies you’d laugh. But, for Apple, you probably believe it. And you likely think they just might pull it off. After all, why not a cell phone iPod?
Why change your opinion when you hear the company name? White Space. Apple has demonstrated it is willing to Disrupt its Success Formula to open up White Space and develop new markets. By demonstrating that skill, Apple is now able to keep competitors off balance. Even competitors in industries where Apple formerly did not participate. Apple creates possibilities for investors and employees, and concern (if not fear) in competitors just because it has shown that by using White Space it can tackle and win in new markets.
Virgin is like Apple in this regard as well. From a recording company Virgin is now an airline, a retailer, and a cell phone company. What is Virgin’s great skill? It is willing to Disrupt itself and create White Space for launching new businesses and entering new markets. By doing this Virgin, like Apple, has demonstrated an ability to remain evergreen. And create concern and doubt amongst its competition.
The Power of White Space. It keeps your company fresh, and long lived. And in the short term, it keeps you competitors off balance. You don’t have to do everything you announce, nor even succeed at all you try. Merely by demonstrating you will do it you create competitive fear – and an advantage for yourself.
by Adam Hartung | Apr 21, 2006 | General, In the Rapids, In the Swamp, Leadership, Lifecycle, Lock-in, Openness
Wow, have you seen the share price of Google? Google’s value has more than doubled the last 12 months, and risen about 5-fold since going public some 21 months ago. Why is this happening? Simply because revenues are more than doubling annually, and profits keep exceeding everyone’s expectations; including management! Google is into the Rapids. After fighting to create a viable business model, it is now exploiting its advantages in traditional, and new markets, every month. It is winning share versus competitors (such as Yahoo! and Microsoft), while it is entering new markets and launching new products. Google is living in White Space, and exploiting its advantages.
Yahoo‘s valuation has remained flat over this period. And Microsoft has also failed to gain value. Why? Aren’t these great high-tech companies? Yes they are. But unfortunately, for the last two years they have been trying to Defend & Extend their old Success Formulas. Their management has fallen into the "me-too" category with its products, and has failed to find new markets. These companies have been great companies, but they are Locked-in to what first gave them market dominance, and they are missing the opportunities Google is finding.
Lock-in can affect any company, causing it to lose sight of the prime objective – growth leading to enhanced results. Poor Kraft has been stuck for 5 years, and despite owning some of the greatest names in consumer products managed by some of the industry’s most talented people, it can’t find a way to overcome focus on its past. Thus, its sales don’t grow and its value remains – stuck.
As we can see, this phenomenon is not limited to older companies, like Kraft. Even worse than Yahoo! and Microsoft has been Sun Microsystems. An early pioneer in developing servers for corporate and internet use, Sun got so locked into its formula of selling boxes loaded with their own software that the company almost went bust. Sun’s value is only about 7.5% of what it was a mere 6 years ago. Despite being the dominant hardware supplier at the time, and one of the most important companies for launching the internet.
Creating success has the same requirements, no matter what industry you’re in. Disrupt your Lock-in, maintain White Space to explore new opportunities, and above all – fight the urge to focus upon Defend & Extend.
PS – Eric Schmidt is the CEO at Google. Did you know that when Sun Microsystem peaked, he was the company Chief Technology Officer? When all looked good at Sun he went to Novell where he led a turnaround of what many thought was a dead networking company. Oh, and before Sun Eric had been an academic – not in business but in computer science. And an R&D geek at Xerox PARC, Bell Labs and Zilog. Eric is a great example of a person who avoids Lock-in, Disrupts himself and keeps looking for White Space where he can grow. The Phoenix Principle is as important for individuals as it is for work teams and businesses.
by Adam Hartung | Apr 16, 2006 | Defend & Extend, In the Swamp, Leadership, Lifecycle, Lock-in
If asked to name the world’s top operationally excellent company, one name you would have to consider is Wal-Mart. From humble beginnings, a relentless focus on operations led this company to become the world’s largest. For two decades Wal-Mart has been THE model of supply chain management, inventory reduction, procurement excellence and using technology in support of its operational goals. Wal-Mart has out-retailed every retailer, and become a huge success.
Wal-Mart’s profits have risen consistently for many years. The company’s stock, however, has not done as well. Between 1997 and 2000, the stock went from $10/share to $70/share. Since then, however, WMT has had a series of lower highs every year. Since early 2005, WMT has been a laggard of both the DJIA and the S&P 500. The problem has been a declining price-earnings multiple, as investors wonder how Wal-Mart will continue growing. Yes, profits are up, but how will the world’s biggest company grow?
How has Wal-Mart responded? By increasing its focus on operational excellence! The latest efforts are intended to cut inventory even further. Reducing the numbers of items carried, and risking out-of-stock items in the store. Wal-Mart is willing to have customers not find goods they want in order to even further improve it’s already world-class, record-setting efficiency while seeking to lower costs.
Wal-Mart is continuing to Defend & Extend the Success Formula that made it famous. Yes, that Success Formula made Wal-Mart an incredible success. But now Wal-Mart has to learn how to do new things in order to grow. Focus, focus, focus Wal-Mart has already proven it can do. But, since the company is unwilling to Disrupt itself, it keeps hoping that "more, better, faster" of what first made it famous will somehow bring it out of a 5-year slump. Instead, Wal-Mart needs internal Disruption, and White Space, to overcome the Challenges which have slowed its growth (and investor enthusiasm.) All 1-Trick ponies are eventually eclipsed by alternatives that change the competitive playing field.
No one thinks Wal-Mart is in a slide to ruin. After all, they are ….. Wal-Mart! But, then again, no one predicted that we’d see the wholesale decline in Woolworths, then Sears … and there was AT&T, and Polaroid …. and Xerox once looked like it could copy its success forever ….
by Adam Hartung | Apr 14, 2006 | General, In the Whirlpool, Leadership, Lock-in
Sears held its annual meeting this week, and demonstrated that nothing insures failure like Lock-in to a failed Success Formula. (See coverage in New York Times and Chicago Tribune.) Sales are down, store concepts are failing and the Chairman said he has "no grand solution" as he hopes a "back-to-basics" program can revitalize sales. After all, the Chairman said he was "comfortable with ambiguity."
Chairman Lampert asked "A plane goes from 40,000 feet to 10,000 feet. Is that a good thing or a bad thing?" Well, the CEO said "No one likes double-digit sales declines.." Double-digit sales declines for consecutive years – hey – that’s what we would call a "free fall," and that’s a bad thing Mr. Lampert. You don’t have to be a billionaire hedge fund manager to figure out that one. Growth is your jet fuel – and you ain’t got any!
Sears stands in the middle of the ring, while in one corner is WalMart and the other is Target. Here’s a question for you Mr. Lampert, can you spell "punching bag?"
Not even Sears’ own subsidiary, Sears Canada, will agree to be bought out by the parent. And the convicted Martha Stewart has refused to let her goods be sold in Sears stores. If that isn’t repudiation…..
While the execs follow their old Success Formulas, the losers are employees and vendors. While taking their pay packages, and paying out multi-million dollar severances to former Chairman Lacy and other departing execs, they have gutted the corporate staff. They’ve laid off thousands in stores as they shut them down. And turnover of Sears managers was 35% last year (25% at Kmart) as Mr. Lampert blamed the troubles on his front-line managers and began kicking them out the door.
Sears is in the Whirlpool. "Pride goes before the fall" according to Proverbs, and there’s nothing but pride in Sears’ executive suite. Too bad they were unwilling to use White Space to find a new competitive opportunity for Sears. But that would have meant Disrupting their Lock-in, and that’s the one thing they’ve promised they won’t do.
by Adam Hartung | Apr 10, 2006 | General, In the Rapids, Innovation, Leadership, Lifecycle, Openness
Do you remember 1-800-Flowers.com? You probably think that was one of those dot-coms that dot.bombed since 2000. After going public in 1999 the stock shot to $22, only to fall to about $2 the next year. The company is still around, but it gets very little attention – why even a search on Forbes.com search shows that the last time someone featured this company in a newsleter was way back in September, 2004.
If ever a name would Lock-in a company, this one should have done it. Yet, 1-800-Flowers.com, which was certainly Challenged by the bust, has done a lot to open up White Space and find a new future. Only about half today’s revenues come from flowers and plants. It sells home and garden merchandise under Plow & Hearth, popcorn from The Popcorn Factory, cookies from Cheryl & Co., gourmet foods form Greatfood.com, children’s gifts from HearthSong and Magic Cabin and wine gifts through the Winetasting Network. And last week they announced the acquisition of Fannie Mae candies – a brand that had fallen into bankruptcy under old management.
There’s a reason we use the term "dot.bomb." Lots of companies were Locked-in to their initial business plan (remember pets.com?) and they failed. But 1-800-Flowers.com is still growing. By avoiding Lock-in they are finding new White Space opportunities for growth and value creation.
The stock still sells for under $8/share, so it is warranted to to say that there is ample risk in this as an investment. Yet, with so much White Space, 1-800-Flowers.com is a company to keep watching. They are avoiding the traps that have killed so many other companies, and show considerable opportunity to become a break-out success story.
by Adam Hartung | Mar 25, 2006 | Disruptions, In the Rapids, Innovation, Leadership, Lifecycle
In my presentations I impress upon people the need to look into the future to recognize Challenges and unearth opportunities. Don’t let Lock-in keep you projecting the future from the past.
A great example showed itself recently. The Chicago Tribune (see article) wrote about an emerging new jet (as in airplane) that was smaller, cheaper to buy and cheaper to operate. Now, you might say "but I don’t need a jet" and pass this article by. That is Lock-in; the decision to fly by the ariticle was created by what you do today, not what you could do tomorrow.
We all know that air travel has become grueling in recent years. Long gone are the days when flying meant you were treated well, with good service and a nice meal. Today, the airline charges for everything from pillows to potentially an aisle seat. Free meals are a thing of the past. And overworked, underpaid flight attendants struggle to keep a smile as they herd passengers, like so much cattle, onto and off the plane as fast as possible in an effort to drive up usage — and maybe someday create a profit for the lackluster industry.
And all that is after you deal with the struggle of simply getting your ticket, boarding pass, checking bags and clearing that long TSA security line (where you got to take off your belt and shoes, while tearing apart your handbag to place items in separate bins for x-ray screening.)
The whole process of air flight is simply not glamorous – not fun. In fact, it is stressful, and tedious. And for business travelers, the grief and cost have become so great that it’s harder and harder to justify those trips to customers and vendors that you know you really should make.
That’s today. Does it need to be the future? Several new firms – air taxi services – have emerged that offer flight service the way we use taxis – "Take me to there, and maybe back again." They provide the equipment, the pilots, everything to make the trip. They fly from very convenient, small airports nearer to more offices (as well as the large airports). The pre-flight screening is a comparative breeze, the stress of missing flights is gone, flexibility grows immensely, and you can get more done since you aren’t hanging around airports and struggling with the crowds.
You’ll say that sounds good, but isn’t it expensive? And that’s where the Tribune article comes in. While we weren’t watching, lots of these new taxi and charter services have brought on-line aircraft that are cheaper and more fuel efficient. They also have streamlined their business processes to make the system more efficient. The result is much lower cost to use a taxi plane than most of us imagine.
Could the future have business travelers bypassing United and American to visit customers? Maybe. And that makes this a trend worth watching, and considering. If a salesperson makes twice as many calls as her competitor, or is first on-site to deal with a customer problem by using this service it just might lead to more revenue. It could be a competitive edge. And as more people use these services processes will improve and technology will be applied, and who knows what the future opportunity will be in just 10 years?
We have to avoid defining the future by looking in the rear-view mirror. We all have a tendency to project the future off our past. We fall into the mode of extending our old Success Formulas. But, innovations appear that change the environment. And we need to be looking for them. We have to keep our eyes on the windshield if we are to identify Challenges to old ways and start looking for White Space opportunities to test new ideas.
Maybe next time you want to visit a vendor in Omaha, or a customer in Wichita, you should hit the web, find some air taxi services, and find out just what the possibilities are. And keep your eyes open for these new jets – they potentially might change our whole view of personal travel.
