Why Innovation Ain’t So Easy Mr. President – Look to Google, not GE


Summary:

  • The President has called for more innovation in America
  • But American business management doesn’t know how to be innovative
  • Business leaders focus on efficiency, not innovation
  • America has no inherent advantage in innovation
  • To increase innovation we need a change in incentives, to favor innovation over efficiency and traditional brick-and-mortar investments
  • We need to highlight leaders that have demonstrated the ability to create jobs in the information economy, not the “old guard” just because they run big, but floundering, companies

It was good to hear the U.S. President call for more innovation in his State of the Union address this week.  And it sounded like he wants most of that to come from business, rather than government.  But I’m reminded the President is a lawyer and politician.  As a businessman, well, let’s say he’s a bit naive.  Most businesses don’t have a clue how to be innovative, as Forbes pointed out in November, 2009 in “Why the Pursuit of Innovation Usually Fails.”

Businesses by and large are not designed to be innovative.  Modern management theory, going back to the days of Frederick Taylor, has been dominated by efficiency.  For the last decade businesses have reacted to global competitive forces by seeking additional efficiency.  Thus the offshoring movement for information technology and manufacturing eliminated millions of American jobs driving unemployment to double digits, and undermines new job creation keeping unemployment stubbornly high. 

It is not surprising business leaders avoid innovation, when the august Wall Street Journal headlines on January 20 “In Race to Market, It Pays to Be Latecomer.” Citing a number of innovator failures, including automobiles, browsers and small computers, the journal concludes that it is smarter business to not innovate. Rather leaders should wait, let someone else innovate and then hope they can take the idea and make something of it down the road. Not a ringing pledge for how good management supports the innovation agenda! 

The professors cited in the Journal article take a fairly common point of view.  Because innovators fail, don’t be one.  Lower your risk, come in later, hope you can catch the market at a future time.  It’s easy to see in hindsight how innovators fail, so why take the risk?  Keep your eyes on being efficient – and innovation is anything but efficient! Because most businesspeople don’t understand how to manage innovation, don’t try.

As discussed in my last blog, about Sara Lee, executives, managers and investors have come to believe that cost cutting, and striving for more efficiency, is the solution for most business problems.  According to the Washington Post, “Immelt To Head New Advisory Board on Job Creation.” The President appointed the GE Chairman to this highly visible position, yet Mr. Immelt has spent most of the last decade shrinking GE, and pushing jobs offshore, rather than growing the company – especially domestically.  Gone are several GE businesses created in the 1990s – including the recent spin out of NBC to Comcast.  It’s ironic that the President would appoint someone who has overseen downsizings and offshoring to this position, instead of someone who has demonstrated the ability to create jobs over the last decade.

As one can easily imagine, efficiency is not the handmaiden of innovation.  To the contrary, as we build organizations the desire for efficiency and “professional management” impedes innovation.  According to Portfolio.com in “Can Google Be Entrepreneurial” even Google, a leading technology company with such exciting new products as Android and Chrome, has replaced its CEO Eric Schmidt with founder Larry Page in order to more effectively manage innovation.  The contention is that the 55 year old professional manager Schmidt created innovation barriers. If a company as young and successful as Google struggles to innovate, one can only imagine the difficulties at traditional, aged American businesses!

While many will trumpet America’s leadership in all business categories, Forbes‘ Fred Allen is correct to challenge our thinking in “The Myth of American Superiority at Innovation.”  For decades America’s “Myth of Efficiency” has pushed organizations to streamline, cutting anything that is not totally necessary to do what it historically did better, faster or cheaper. Innovation inside businesses was designed to improve existing processes, usually cutting cost and jobs, not create new markets with high growth that creates jobs and economic growth.  Most executives would 10x rather see a plan to cut costs saving “hard dollars” in the supply chain, or sales and marketing, than something involving new product introduction into new markets where they have to deal with “unknowns.”  Where our superiority in innovation originates, if at all, is unclear.

Lawyers are not historically known for their creativity.  Hours spent studying precedent doesn’t often free the mind to “think outside the box.”  Business folks have their own “precedent managers” – internal experts who set themselves up intentionally to block experimentation and innovation in the name of lowering risk, being conservative and carefully managing the core business.  To innovate most organizations will be forced to “Fire the Status Quo Police” as I called for last September here in Forbes.  But that isn’t easy. 

America can be very innovative.  Just look at the leadership America exerts in all things “social media” – from Facebook to Groupon! And look at how adroitly Apple has turned around by moving beyond its roots in personal computing to success in music (iPod and iTunes), mobile telephony and data (iPhone) and mobile computing (iPad).  Netflix has used a couple of rounds of innovation to unseat old leader Blockbuster! But Apple and Netflix are still the rarities – innovators amongst the hoards of myopic organizations still focused on optimization.  Look no further than the problems Microsoft – a tech company – has had balancing its desire to maintain PC domination while ineffectively attempting to market innovation. 

What America needs is less bully pulpit, and more action if you really want innovation Mr. President:

  • Increase tax credits for R&D
  • Increase tax deductions and credits for new product launches by expanding the definition of what constitutes R&D in the tax code
  • Implement penalties on offshore outsourcing to discourage the efficiency focus and the chronic push to low-cost global resources
  • Lower capital gains taxes to encourage wealth creation through new business creation
  • Manage the deficit by implementing VAT (value added taxes) which add cost to supply chain transactions, thus lowering the value of “efficiency” moves
  • Make it much easier for foreign graduate students in America to receive their green cards so we can keep them here and quit exporting some of the brightest innovators we develop to foreign countries
  • Create more tax incentives for investing in high tech – from nanotech to biotech to infotech – and quit wasting money trying to favor investments in manufacturing.  Provide accelerated or double deductions for buying lab equipment, and stretch out deductions for brick-and-mortar spending. Better yet, quit spending so much on road construction and simply give credits to people who buy lab equipment and other innovation tools.
  • Propose regulations on executive compensation so leaders aren’t encouraged to undertake short-term cost cutting measures merely to prop up short-term profits at the expense of long-term viability
  • Quit putting “old guard” leaders who have seen their companies do poorly in highly placed positions.  Reach out to those who really understand the information economy to fill such positions – like Eric Schmidt from Google, or John Chambers at Cisco Systems.
  • Reform the FDA so new bio-engineered solutions do not follow regulations based on 50 year old pharma technology and instead streamline go-to-market processes for new innovations
  • Quit spending so much money on border fences, DEA crack-downs on marijuana users and giant defense projects.  Put the money into grants for universities and entrepreneurs to create and implement innovation.

Mr. President,, don’t expect traditional business to do what it has not done for over a decade.  If you want innovation, take actions that will create innovation.  American business can do it, but it will take more than asking for it.  it will take a change in incentives and management.

 

 

Growth (vs Greed) is Good – Google, Amazon, Facebook vs Microsoft


Summary:

  • Most managers think it’s good to lower costs
  • Most leaders focus heavily on earnings
  • But focusing on costs and earnings leads to a dysmal spiral of decline
  • Growth, rather than earings, distinguishes the higher value, and higher paying, companies
  • Google is giving across the board pay raises and bonuses, because it has high growth
  • Amazon, Facebook and Apple are hiring and paying more because they are growing
  • Microsoft is cutting staff and costs, and its value is going nowhere as it focuses on earnings
  • Growth is good, Greed (a focus on earnings) is the road to ruin

Google to Give Staff 10% Raise” is the Wall Street Journal headline.  All 23,000 employees (globally) will receive a 10% raise this year.  At Mediapost.com in “Google Woos Troops with Cash and Raises” it is reported that additional to the 10% raise everyone will also receive at least a $1,000 cash bonus end of this year.  According to CEO Eric Schmidt “We want to make sure that you feel rewarded for all your hard work.” For best performers, Google is making some pretty big (outrageous?) offers.  In “Google Paying Big Bucks to Keep TalentMediapost reported a staff engineer was awarded $3.5 million in restricted stock to stay at the company.

Has your company announced anything similar?   Hold on, didn’t you and your team work really hard?  Don’t you deserve recognition for your efforts?  And given your value to your employer, shouldn’t you receive something special to retain you, before you run to a higher paying job with better growth opportunities?  Are we to believe all the good people, who deserve bonuses, are at Google?  Or is something different going on besides just “hard work” leading to this generous cash dispersal to employees?

Google is growing like crazy.  And that’s the difference.  As Bruce Henderson, founder of the famous Boston Consulting Group once said, “growth hides a multitude of sins.”  Growth surrounds the business with lush resources – it’s like being on the equator rather than the poles.  When you grow, you can pay more to employees, and your suppliers. You can be Santa Clause, rather than the Grinch.  Google is spending more money to keep, and hire, employees because other high growth companies, like Facebook, have been “stealing” them away.  It’s a problem of riches in the battle to hire and keep people!  Wouldn’t you like to particpate in this one?

Too many leaders confuse growth with greed (remember the famous Gorden Gekko speech from Wall Street about “Greed is Good”?)  The outcome is a surplus of focus on “the bottom line” and that leads to cost cutting – which hurts growth.  In the rush to show higher earnings, leaders forget earnings are the result of good management – and growth – and they begin looking for short-term ways to improve them. Greed, and the desire for more earnings now, causes them to forget that had they spent more time finding profitable growth markets yesterday the earnings today would be higher, and better. And they forget that without growth earnings are destined to decline!

Growth leads to a virtuous circle.  More sales leads to more investment in new products and markets, leading to more sales, leading to more earnings, leading to more hiring, leading to higher pay, leading to better talent, leading to better ideas, leading to more new products taking you into more new markets…. a pretty fun place to work.  Wheras greed leads to the whirlpool of despair.  Cost cutting, product line rationalization, benefit reductions, lower (or no bonuses), headcount freezes, layoffs, no new hires, lower pay, more pressure on suppliers to cut their prices, no new product introductions, lost accounts, fewer salespeople, layoffs, outsourcing, facility closings ….. very much not a fun place to work.  Where growth fuels a great company, focus on earnings inevitably kills the business.

We can see this difference when comparing performance of a few leading companies.  Microsoft grew for many years.  But now its strict focus on PC software has caused growth to lag.  At Techflash.com (Puget Sound Business Journal product) “Hiring: Microsoft Stays Cautious as Google, Amazon Ramp Up” tells the story.  Declining PC sales growth has led Microsoft to reduce its workforce by 2% globally the last year (~4,000).  Google has expanded by 18% (+23,300 jobs).  Since adding Kindle to its product line, and making other expansions, Amazon has added 44% to its workforce (~10,000 or 2.5 times the staff reduction at Microsoft).  New products and new markets is helping Google, Facebook and Amazon grow – while focus on old markets has lowered growth at Microsoft.

Now Microsoft is attempting to save face by focusing on expense management, and earnings.  Mr. Ballmer and his team hope Wall Street analysts will be happy with greed, by looking only at earnings, rather than growth.  Microsoft’s CFO said “the best measure for our financial performance… comes down to EPS [earnings per share]… what we really need to do is drive earnings per share growth.”  Microsoft missed the digital music wave, smartphone and tablet waves.  It’s now struggling to rediscover growth, so it’s hoping to appeal to greed. Microsoft is taking the old approach of “if you can’t show you understand markets, products and growth then try to convince them you’re a good manager who can cut costs.”   But how long can Microsoft manage its earnings when it’s not a significant player in the growth markets?  Cost reduction is never the route to prosperity.

The last decade has seen the revenge of cost management.  Coming out of the “go go” 1990s many leaders have proudly demonstrated their ability to avoid investment, cut costs, work employees harder, avoid increased pay, avoid new hires, send work to low-pay countries – and manage for the bottom line.  Unfortunately, most publicly traded companies are worth less now than they were a decade ago.  The DJIA and S&P 500 are worth less.  The dollar has taken a shellacking.  Fewer Americans are working and unemployment is higher.  Tax receipts are down, and (as shown in the last election) Americans are pretty sick of a lousy economy.  All this focus on earnings hasn’t done much for America’s workers, most American companies or the overall economy.

If you want to be “rewarded for all your hard work” through a big paycheck, a big raise, a big bonus – and you want employment that is filling and fun – then focus on growth.  Help your company create new markets, with new products that people want.  If you lead the marketplace with new applications and new solutions that fulfill unmet needs you’ll achieve good growth.  Then realize earnings are a result of implementing that growth at effective prices.  If you focus on the right thing – growth – then you’ll receive the results you want.  Less focus on greed, with more on growth, and you might get rich.

Defend & Extend versus White Space – Microsoft vs. Google

Two tech giants are Microsoft and Google.  The former has been around for over 30 years.  The latter about a decade.  Which is the company you should work for, or invest in?  The one that has demonstrated a long history and great record of earnings, or the newer one participating in new markets still not well understood with a slew of new – but largely unproven – products?  You might think the older one is less risky, and feel more comfortable backing.

But we know that Microsoft is losing market share, especially in growing markets.  Although its products have been dominant, the market for those products (personal computers used as servers, desktop machines and laptops) has seen substantial slowing.  New solutions are emerging that compete directly with Microsoft (new operating systems like Linux and others) and compete indirectly (cloud computing and thin applications on mobile devices.) 

Chrome v IE 3.10
Source:  Silicon Alley Insider

In just 18 months Microsoft Internet Explorer has lost 13 market share points – dropping from 68% of the market to 55%.  Almost all of that has gone to Safari (Macintosh) and Google ChromeChrome has risen from nothing to 7% of the market.  And since internet usage is growing, while desktop usage is shrinking, this is the "leading edge" of the market.

Also, the Chrome operating system will be launching later in 2010.  It also will go directly after the "Windows" franchise which had a very unexciting launch of System 7 in 2009. 

Let's look at valuation:  First Microsoft – which has gone basically sideways.  Huge peak to trough, but overall not much gain for investors despite launching two major upgrades during the period (Vista and System 7 as well as Office 2007).  Obviously, upgrade products have produced very little growth for Microsoft, or its valuation.

Microsoft 5 year chart 3.5.10

Now we can look at Google. Google investors have doubled their money, while employment has grown.  All those new products have helped Google to grow, and investors have an optimistic view of future growth.

Google 5 year chart 3.5.10 

Do you make decisions looking in the rear view mirror, or out the windshield?  It can be tempting to be influenced by a great past. But that really isn't relevant.  What's important is the future.  And we can see that Microsoft, which keeps trying to Defend & Extend what it knows is rapidly falling behind the market changer, Google, which is rapidly moving toward where markets are heading.

D&E Management never creates growth.  By trying to recapture the past, new market moves are missed and growth opportunities lost.  Companies have to move forward, with new products, into new markets.  And if you have any doubt, just compare the results of Defend & Extend Management at Microsoft the last 5 years with Phoenix Principle management using White Space at Google.