by Adam Hartung | Aug 2, 2011 | Current Affairs, Defend & Extend, In the Whirlpool, Leadership, Lock-in
Bernie Ebbers (of WorldCom) and Jeff Skilling (of Enron) went to prison. Less well known is Conrad Black – the CEO of Sun Times Group – who also went to the pokey. What do they have in common with Rupert Murdoch – besides CEO titles? The famous claim, “I am not responsible” closely allied with “I’ve done nothing wrong.” While Murdoch hasn’t been charged with crimes, or come close to jail (yet,) there is no doubt people at News Corp have been charged, and some will go to jail. And there is public outcry Murdoch be fired.
Investors should take note; three bankruptcies killed 2 of the organizations the ex-cons led and investors were wiped out at Sun Times which barely remains in business. What will happen at News Corp? Given the commonalities between the 4 leaders, I don’t think I’d want to be a News Corp. stockholder, employee or supplier right now.
How in the world could something like this happen?
Like the infamous trio, Rupert Murdoch was, and is, a leader who defined the success formula of his company. As time passed, the growing organization became adroit at implementing the success formula, operating better, faster and cheaper. Loyal managers, who identified with, and implemented intensely, the success formula were rewarded. Those who asked questions were let go. Acquisitions were forced to conform to the success formula (such as MySpace) even if such conformance created a gap between the business and market needs. Business failure was not nearly as bad as operating outside the success formula. Failure could be forgiven – but better yet was finding a creative way to make things look successful.
Supporting the company’s success formula – its identity, cultural norms and operating methods – using all forms of ingenuity became the definition of success in these companies. This ingenuity was unbridled, even rewarded! Even when it came to skirting the edge of – or even breaking – the law. Cleverly using outsiders to do “dirty work” was an ingenious way to create plausible deniability. Financial machinations were not considered a problem if there was any way to explain changes. Violating accounting conventions not really an issue if done in the pursuit of shoring up reported results. Moving money wherever necessary to avoid taxes, or fines, and pay off executives or their friends, not really a big deal if it helped the company implement its success formula. Any behavior that reinforced the success formula, as the leader expressed it, made employees and contractors successful.
Do the ends justify the means? Of course! As long as the results appear good, and the leader is taking home a whopping amount of cash, everything appears “A-OK.”
Is this because these are crooks? Far from it. Rather, they are dedicated, hard working, industrious, smart, inventive managers who have been given a clear mission. To make the success formula work. Each small step down the ethical gangplank was a very small increment – and everyone believed they operated far from the end. If they got away with something yesterday, then why not expect to get away with a little more today? What are ethics anyway? Relative, changeable, difficult to define. Whereas fulfilling the success formula creates clear, measurable outcomes!
What is the News Corp’s Board of Directors position? The New York Times headlined “Murdoch’s Board Stands By as Scandal Widens.” Mr. Murdoch, like any good leader implementing a success formula, made sure the Board, as well as the executives and managers, were as dedicated to the success formula as he. Through that lens there are no difficult questions facing the Board. Everything was done to defend and extend the success formula. Mr. Murdoch and his team have done nothing wrong – except perhaps a zealous pursuit of implementation. What’s wrong with that? Why should the Board object?
Could this happen to you, and your organization? It may already be happening.
Answer this option, what’s more important to you and your company:
- Focusing on and identifying market trends, and adapting your strategy, tactics, products, services and processes to align with emerging future trends, or
- Focusing on execution. Setting goals, holding people to metrics and making sure implementation remains true to the company’s history, strengths and core capabilities, customers and markets? Rewarding those who meet metrics, and firing those who don’t?
If it’s the latter, it’s an easy slide into Murdoch’s very uncomfortable public seat. Very few will end up with an Enron Sized Disaster, as BNET.com headlined. But failure is likely. Any time execution is more important than questioning, implementation is more important than listening and conforming to historical norms is more important than actual business results you are chasing the select group of leaders exemplified today by Mr. Murdoch.
Here are 10 questions to ask if you want to know how at risk you just might be. If even a couple of these ring “yes,” you could be confidently, but errantly, thinking everything is OK :
- Is loyalty more important than business results? Do you have people working for you that don’t do that good a job, but do exactly what you want so you keep them?
- Do you hold certain aspects of your business as being beyond challenge – such as technology base, meeting key metrics, supporting historical distributors (or customers) or operating according to specified “rules?”
- Do you ask employees to operate according to norms before asking if they have a better idea?
- Does HR tell employees how to do things rather than asking employees what they need to succeed?
- Do employee and manager reviews have a section for asking how well they “fit” into the organization? Are people pushed out that don’t “fit?”
- Are “trusted lieutenants” moved into powerful positions over talented managers just because leaders aren’t comfortable with the newer people?
- Are certain functions (finance, HR, IT) expected (perhaps enforcers?) to make sure everyone operates according to the historical status quo?
- Is management meeting time spent predominantly on internal, versus external, issues? Talking about “how to do it” rather than “what should we do?”
- Is your advisory board, or Board of Directors, filled with your friends and co-workers that agree with your success formula and don’t seek change?
- Do your customers, employees, or suppliers learn that demonstrating dissatisfaction leads to a bad (or ended) relationship?
by Adam Hartung | Jun 30, 2011 | Current Affairs, In the Swamp, Leadership, Web/Tech
Google rolled out its newest social media product this week. Unfortuntately for Google investors, this is not a good thing.
Internet usage is changing. Dramatically. Once the web was the world’s largest library, and simultaneously the world’s biggest shopping mall. In that environment, what everyone needed was to find things. And Google was the world’s best tool for finding things. When the noun, Google, became the verb “googled” (as in “I googled your history” or I googled your brand to see where I could buy it”) it was clear that Google had permanently placed itself in the long history of products that changed the world.
But increasingly the internet is not about just finding things. Today people are using the internet more as a way to network, communicate and cooperatively share information – using sites like Facebook, LInked-in and Twitter. Although web usage is increasing, old style “search-based” use is declining, with all the growth coming from “social-based” use: 
Chart source: AllThingsD.com
This poses a very real threat to Google. Not in 2011, but the indication is that being dominant in search has a limit to Google’s future revenue growth through selling search-based ads. And, in fact, while internet ads continue growing in all ad categories, none is growing as fast as display ads. And of this the Facebook market is growing the fastest, as MediaPost.com pointed out in its headline “On-line Ad Spend up, Facebook soars 22%.” In on-line display ads Facebook is now first, followed by Yahoo! (the original market dominator) and Google is third, as described in “Facebook Serves 25% of Display Ads.”
While Google is not going to become obsolete overnight, the trend is now distinctly moving away from Google’s area of domination and toward the social media marketplace. Products like Facebook are emerging as platforms which can displace your need for a web site (why build a web site when all you need is on their platform?) or even email. Their referral networks have the ability to be more powerful than a generic web search when you seek information. And by tying you together with others like you, they can probably move you to products and buying locations you really want faster than a keyword Google-style search. BNet.com headlined “How Facebook Intends to Supplant Google as the Web’s #1Utility,” and it just might happen – as we see users are increasingly spending more time on Facebook than Google: 
Source: Silicon Alley Insider
So, you would think it’s a good thing for Google to launch Google+. Although earlier efforts to enter this market were unsuccessful (Google Buzz and Google Wave being two well known efforts,) it would, on the surface, seem like Google has no option but to try, try again.
Only, Google + is not a breakthrough in social media. By all accounts its a collection of things already offered by Facebook and others, without any remarkable new packaging (see BusinessInsider.com “Google’s Launch of Google + is, once again, deeply embarrassing” or “Google Plus looks like everything else” or “Wow, Google+ looks EXACTLY like Facebook.”) With Facebook closing in on 1 billion users, it’s probably too late – and will be far too expensive, for Google to ever catch the big lead. Especially with Facebook in China, and Google noticably not.
Like many tech competitors, Google’s had a game-changer come along and move its customers toward a different solution. Google Plus will be in a gladiator war, where everyone gets bloody and several end up dead. NewsCorp is finally exiting social media as it sells MySpace for a $550m loss – clearly a body being drug from the colliseum! Even with its early lead, and big expenditures of time and managerial talent, NewsCorp was thrashed in the gladiator war. 
Source: BusinessInsider.com
Google may have a lot of money to spend on this battle, but shareholders will NOT benefit from the fight. It will be long, costly and inevitably not profitable. Yes, Google needs to find new ways to grow as the market shifts – but trying to do so by engaging such powerful, funded and well-positioned competitors as the big 3 of social media is not a smart investment.
And that leads us to why Google + is really problematic. Resources spent there cannot be spent on other opporunities which have high growth potential, and far fewer competitors. BI‘s headline “Google kills off two of its most ambitious projects” should send shudders of fear down shareholder backs. Google had practically no competitors in its efforts to change how Americans buy and use both healthcare servcies and utilities such as electricty and natural gas. Two enormous markets, where Google was alone in efforts to partner with other companies and rebuild supply chains in ways that would benefit consumers. Neither of these projects are as costly as Google+, and neither has entrenched competition. Both are enormous, and Google was the early entrant, with game-changing solutions, from which it could capture most, if not all, the value — just as it did with its early search and ad-words success.
Additionally, Chromebooks is now coming to market. Android has been a remarkable success, trouncing RIM and with multiple vendors supporting it rapidly taking ground from Apple’s iPhone. Only Google has made almost nothing from this platform. Chromebooks offers a way for Google to improve monetizing its growing – and perhaps someday #1 – platform in the rapidly growing tablet business against a very weak Microsoft. But, with so much attention on Google+ Microsoft is given berth for launching its Office 365 product as a challenger. With so much opportunity in cloud computing, and Google’s early lead in multiple products, Google has a real chance of being bigger than Apple someday. But it’s movement into social media will not allow it to focus on cloud products as it should, and give Microsoft renewed opportunity to compete.
Google is setting itself up for potential disaster. While its historical business slowly starts losing its growth, the company is entering into 3 very expensive gladiator wars. First is the ongoing battle for smartphone users against Apple, where it is spending money on Android that largely benefits handset manufacturers. Secondly it is now facing a battle for enterprise and personal productivity apps based in cloud computing where it has not yet succeeding in taking the lead position, yet faces increasing competition from Apple’s iCloud and Microsoft’s new round of cloud apps. And on top of that Google now tells investors it is going to go toe-to-toe with the fastest growing software companies out there – Facebook, Linked-in, Twitter and a host of other entrants. And to fund this they are abandoning markets where they were practically the only game changing solution.
There’s a lot yet to happen in the fast-moving tech markets. But now is the time for investors to wait and see. Google’s engineers are very talented. But it’s strategy may well be very costly, and unable to compete on all fronts. You may not want to sell Google shares today, but it’s hard to find a reason to buy them.
by Adam Hartung | Jan 13, 2011 | Current Affairs, In the Rapids, Innovation, Leadership, Web/Tech
Before there was Facebook, the social media juggernaut which is changing how we communicate – and might change the face of media – there was MySpace. MySpace was targeted at the same audience, had robust capability, and was to market long before Facebook. It generated enormous interest, received a lot of early press, created huge valuation when investors jumped in, and was undoubtedly not only an early internet success – but a seminal web site for the movement we now call social media. On top of that, MySpace was purchased by News Corporation, a powerhouse media company, and was given professional managers to help guide its future as well as all the resources it ever wanted to support its growth. By almost all ways we look at modern start-ups, MySpace was the early winner and should have gone on to great glory.
But things didn’t turn out that way. Facebook was hatched by some college undergrads, and started to grow. Meanwhile MySpace stagnated as Facebook exploded to 600 million active users. During early 2010, according to The Telegraph in “Facebook Dominance Forces Rival Networks to Go Niche,” MySpace gave up on its social media leadership dreams and narrowed its focus to the niche of being a “social entertainment destination.” As the number of users fell, MySpace was forced to cut costs, laying off half its staff this week according to MediaPost.com “MySpace Confirms Massive Layoffs.” After losing a reported $350million last year, it appears that MySpace may disappear – “MySpace Versus Facebook – There Can Be Only One” reported at Gigaom.com. The early winner now appears a loser, most likely to be unplugged, and a very expensive investment with no payoff for NewsCorp investors.
What went wrong? A lot of foks will be relaying the tactics of things done and not done at MySpace. As well as tactics done and not done at Facebook. But underlying all those tactics was a very simple management mistake News Corp. made. News Corp tried to guide MySpace, to add planning, and to use “professional management” to determine the business’s future. That was fatally flawed when competing with Facebook which was managed in White Space, lettting the marketplace decide where the business should go.
If the movie about Facebook’s founding has any veracity, we can accept that none of the founders ever imagined the number of people and applications that Facebook would quickly attract. From parties to social games to product reviews and user networks – the uses that have brought 600 million users onto Facebook are far, far beyond anything the founders envisioned. According to the movie, the first effort to sell ads to anyone were completely unsuccessful, as uses behond college kids sharing items on each other were not on the table. It appeared like a business bust at the beginning.
But, the brilliance of Mark Zuckerberg was his willingness to allow Facebook to go wherever the market wanted it. Farmville and other social games – why not? Different ways to find potential friends – go for it. The founders kept pushing the technology to do anything users wanted. If you have an idea for networking on something, Facebook pushed its tech folks to make it happen. And they kept listening. And looking within the comments for what would be the next application – the next promotion – the next revision that would lead to more uses, more users and more growth.
And that’s the nature of White Space management. No rules. Not really any plans. No forecasting markets. Or foretelling uses. No trying to be smarter than the users to determine what they shouldn’t do. Not prejudging ideas so as to limit capability and focus the business toward a projected conclusion. To the contrary, it was about adding, adding, adding and doing whatever would allow the marketplace to flourish. Permission to do whatever it takes to keep growing. And resource it as best you can – without prejudice as to what might work well, or even best. Keep after all of it. What doesn’t work stop resourcing, what does work do more.
Contrarily, at NewsCorp the leaders of MySpace had a plan. NewsCorp isn’t run by college kids lacking business sense. Leaders create Powerpoint decks describing where the business will head, where they will invest, how they will earn a positive ROI, projections of what will work – and why – and then plans to make it happen. They developed the plan, and then worked the plan. Plan and execute. The professional managers at News Corp looked into the future, decided what to do, and did it. They didn’t leave direction up to market feedback and crafty techies – they ran MySpace like a professional business.
And how’d that work out for them?
Unfortunately, MySpace demonstrates a big fallacy of modern management. The belief that smart MBAs, with industry knowledge, will perform better. That “good management” means you predict, you forecast, you plan, and then you go execute the plan. Instead of reacting to market shifts, fast, allowing mistakes to happen while learning what works, professional managers should be able to predict and perform without making mistakes. That once the bright folks who create the strategy set a direction, its all about executing the plan. That execution will lead to success. If you stumble, you need to focus harder on execution.
When managing innovation, including operating in high growth markets, nothing works better than White Space. Giving dedicated people permission to do whatever it takes, and resources, then holding their feet to the fire to demonstrate performance. Letting dedicated people learn from their successes, and failures, and move fast to keep the business in the fast moving water. There is no manager, leader or management team that can predict, plan and execute as well as a team that has its ears close to the market, and the flexibility to react quickly, willing to make mistakes (and learn from them even faster) without bias for a predetermined plan.
The penchant for planning has hurt a lot of businesses. Rarely does a failed business lack a plan. Big failures – like Circuit City, AIG, Lehman Brothers, GM – are full of extremely bright, well educated (Harvard, Stanford, University of Chicago, Wharton) MBAs who are prepared to study, analyze, predict, plan and execute. But it turns out their crystal ball is no better than – well – college undergraduates.
When it comes to applying innovation, use White Space teams. Drop all the business plan preparation, endless crunching of historical numbers, multi-tabbed Excel spreadsheets and powerpoint matrices. Instead, dedicate some people to the project, push them into the market, make them beg for resources because they are sure they know where to put them (without ROI calculations) and tell them to get it done – or you’ll fire them. You’ll be amazed how fast they (and your company) will learn – and grow.
