Private Equity Quote

This week Blackstone, one of the world’s largest private equity firms announced it was likely to soon go public.  Ironic that a business based upon taking companies private is now going public…  Reflecting upon this, Merrill Lynch today ran the following quote (see page 5 of report here) in it’s daily North America Morning Market Memo by David Rosenberg.  His topic is what happens after a business is purchased by a private equity firm:

"All of a sudden managment is focused and will do anything to maintain or increase cash flow.  Here’s the usual list:  Cut spending, workers, officeds, factories and advertising, and with tech companies now in play cut R&D, their lifeblood.  Don’t mistake financial engineering for company building."

Well said Mr. Rosenberg.

Dell Disaster

I need to thank one of my readers for bringing to my attention a recent BusinessWeek article on Dell (see article here.)  As he pointed out, this article comes almost exactly 3 months after I talked about how Dell’s Lock-in was disastrous.  There are some great quotes worthy of sharing:

Regarding Lock-in:

  • "Dell remained slavishly loyal to its core idea of ultra-efficient supply-chain management and direct sales to consumers, even as rivals have stepped up their game and markets have shifted to take away some of Dell’s key advantages. Instead of adapting, critics say, Dell cut costs in ways that compromised customer service and, possibly, product quality."

Some readers may recall on April 16, 2006 when I pointed out Wal-Mart’s problems and discussed the risk of being a 1-Trick Pony:

  • "They’re a one-trick pony. It was a great trick for over 10 years, but the rest of us have figured it out and Dell hasn’t plowed any of its profits into creating a new trick."

Regarding identifying Telltales of big problems that indicate a company is moving into the Swamp – or Whirlpool:

  • "Dell’s culture is not inspirational or aspirational," says Geoffrey Moore, a tech consultant and author of Dealing with Darwin: How Great Companies Innovate at Every Phase of Their Evolution. "This is when they need to be imaginative, but [Dell’s] culture only wants to talk about execution."

Of course, in an execution focused company there is no room for White Space, and you don’t get innovation:

  • "They don’t feel they’re part of something at Dell, and they generally leave because they feel frustrated," says Snyder. "Dell is not a fun place to work, and it’s less fun now than it used to be."
  • "Even the CEO admitted so in 2003 – "There are some organizations where people think they’re a hero if they invent a new thing," he said. "Being a hero at Dell means saving money."
  • "Inside Dell, ideas that break from the model are discouraged, say former Dell managers. Notes one: "You had to be very confident and thick-skinned to stay on an issue that wasn’t popular. A lot of red flags got waved—but only once."

Lock-in makes you an easy target for competitors:

  • "But it was clear some time ago that Dell’s model was not keeping pace and was not going to be such a big advantage in the future… And while experts believe Dell got the best prices on components when it was outgrowing all of its rivals, these days newly ascendant HP and Asian rivals Lenovo Group (LNVYG) and Acer are offering plenty of growth themselves."

Once a company commits to a Defend & Extend strategy, it becomes so structurally Locked-in it becomes almost powerless to change: 

  • "So why hasn’t Michael Dell—clearly a brilliant guy—changed tactics? For starters, say rivals and Dell alums, shifting gears would upset investors who expect hyper-profitability from Dell’s hyper-efficiency. And having stuck to his guns in the past, he can’t risk letting customers think that "Direct from Dell" is no longer the cheapest, smartest way to go."

By following the Siren’s song of "operational excellence" Dell adopted a Defend & Extend strategy that has placed it at great risk.  Now it lacks the tools for innovation that could help the company to have a longer, more successful future.  Without a serious Disruption, and new leadership that can implement and manage White Space Dell’s future is easy to predict.

When they do what you can’t

On July 12, McDonald’s announced it was cancelling its Hot ‘n Spicy McChicken sandwich.  "It’s not that it didn’t do well.  It just didn’t do well enough," according to McDonald’s spokesperson Bill Whitman (see Chicago Tribune article).  After 18 months of development, the product was pulled after just 6 months on the market.

On July 13, Wendy’s announced it was going to test market a new fiery, red-hot chicken sandwich even hotter than its Spicy Chicken sandwich – which it has been selling for decade.  "We have defended our Spicy Chicken successfully against competitive intrusion…now we see an opportunity to build on this effort…giving our customers additional options," said Wendy’s Chief Marketing Officer Ian Rowden (see article here).

Could it be that McDonald’s customers just don’t like spicy sandwiches?  Unlikely in the notoriously fickle fast food marektplace.  Practically every competitor (except McDonald’s) has a spicy product line today as the sales of chili peppers has doubled in just the last 4 years.  What’s at play here is good old Lock-in, once again.  We’d like to think that as the #1 fast food company McDonald’s would listen to customers and bring the very best talent to rolling out a product widely desired.  But, more likely, all new products in McDonald’s are vetted over and over until the challenge becomes distinguishing it from what is already on the menu

The more adaptable Wendy’s has demonstrated its ability to one-up McDonald’s for years.  Wendy’s brought us fast food chili, the baked potato with fixins’ bar, the fast-food salad bar, and Frosty’s.  By using disruptions to find new products, Wendy’s keeps the edge over McDonald’s in practically all categories but absolute size.

Wendy’s keeps growing its stores and customers, while McDonald’s remains almost flat on both counts.  By overcoming Lock-in, Wendy’s keeps doing what McDonald’s can’t – and that’s where Wendy’s creates competitive value.

Similarity breeds contempt

[We] "have a surplus of similar companies, employing similar people, with similar educational backgrounds, coming up with similar ideas producing similar things with similar prices and similar quality."

— Kjell Nordstrom and Jonas Ridderstrale in Funky Business

The Wrong Stuff

"The slide into bankruptcy protection of two of the USA’s largest airlines is more a result of the carriers’ bad assumptions and slowness to act than the recent rise in fuel prices or the devastating terror attacks four years ago."  USAToday 9/15/05 page B1.

Woe are many of the airline companies.  They’ve been challenged to find a new, profitable business model.  And instead they’ve blamed their employees (too expensive), their customers (disloyal and cheap) and commodity traders (rising fuel prices) for their failures.  The leadership of these companies has done everything it can to continue Defending and Extending their broken Success Formula.  But not even post 9/11 federal government bailouts were enough.

When companies don’t step up to their market challenges by disrupting their operations and finding new solutions then their future is easy to predict.  Too bad for America that nearly half of the industry capacity is now in bankruptcy (and thousands of jobs at risk, not to mention the strain on the federal government’s Pension Benefit Guarantee system) simply because management would not stop trying to do more of what it had been doing (more, better, faster, cheaper) – an impossible plan for saving these companies.

Quote: The dissenter is…

The dissenter is every human being at those moments of his life when he resigns momentarily from the herd and thinks for himself.
—Archibald MacLeish, 20th century writer, poet