When you can predict behavior in business it is the first step to taking competitive advantage. When you can predict competitors, you know what to do to beat them. And you can take steps as an investor, employee, supplier or customer to decide how you’ll interact with them in your own best interest.
I blogged several days ago that the buyout of Tribune Company would force them to continue taking actions operate their Success Formula More, Better, Faster, Cheaper rather than addressing changing market factors. Even though it is certain this behavior will continue to hurt performance because that Success Formula is woefully out of date and not meeting market needs in world where news travels via the web. The debt load alone would create that Lock-in since it dramatically limits options. Further, the leaders last year were manipulating results (all very legal I’m sure) in order to maximize their bonuses and mask bad business performance.
What have we seen this week? On Friday the Chicago Tribune reported (see article here) that the company cash flow was off 12%. Of course! The leadership did everything possible to goose up cash flow at the end of the last year in order to maximize bonuses and attract a buyer for the company. It was easy to predict that cash flow would decline, and results would lag peers even in the struggling media industry. Then today Tribune Company announced it is cutting jobs across all its properties (see article here.) Of course, it has to cut costs to protect the old Success Formula. (When what the leadership needs to do is invest in internet projects to transform the company.)
Tribune once made a lot of money. Then the market changed as people moved from newspapers to the internet. But Tribune company did not adjust to that market change nearly rapidly or powerfullly enough. The company tried to tweak it’s Success Formula with cost cutting exercises while hoping the business would return to its prior state. Now, it’s More Of The Same while management keeps hoping that the past will return. But it won’t happen. And things will keep getting worse as cost cuts lead to further problems with the paper and fewer readers and fewer advertisers leading to more cost cuts – a vicious cycle. The business needs to change remarkably toward the internet – but now leadership and ownership is so Locked-in to the old Success Formula they can’t. They’ve refused to Disrupt and there is no White Space. And so Tribune Company is becoming very predictable. That’s bad for the employees, suppliers and new debt-holders. Good for competitors.