Summary:

• When something works, we do more of it
• But markets shift, and what we did loses its ability to create growth
• Out of high growth comes Lock-in to old practices that blind us to potential market changes which could create price wars or obsolescence
• Lock-in gets in the way of seeing emerging market shifts
• Ikea is doing well now, but it is already seriously locked-in on an aging strategy
• Will Ikea continue succeeding as it runs into Wal-mart and other price-focused competitors?
• Will Ikea be able to adapt to changing markets as developed economies improve?

“If it works, do more of it” is a famous coaching recommendation.  “Nothing succeeds like success” is another.  Both are age old comments with simple meanings.  Don’t overthink a situation.  If something works, keep on doing it.  And the more it works, the more you should “keep on keepin’ on” as once famous pop song lyrics recommended. One could ask, why should you try doing anything else, if what you’re doing is working?  Many people would sagelyl recommend another common comment, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!”

And this seems to be the philosophy of the new CEO at Ikea, Mikael Ohlsson as descibed in an Associated Press article on Chron.com, the web site for the Houston Chronicle, “New Ikea CEO Cuts Prices, Targets Frugal U.S. Families.” 

A lifelong Ikea employee, Mr. Ohlsson joined Ikea right out of college in 1979 as a rug salesperson.  He’s watched the company grow dramatically across his career.  And he’s watched the company essentially grow by doing one thing – make home goods people need cheaply, figure out how to keep shipping and distribution costs to a minimum, and offer them directly to customers through your own stores.  All designed to keep prices at a minimum.  Most people would applaud him for focusing on doing more of the same.

And certainly today Ikea’s strategy is benefitting from the “Great Recession,” as we’ve come to call it.  A flat economy, no job growth, little income growth, rampant unemployment, declining home values and limited credit access has helped Americans move along the road of penny-pinching. 

Somewhat stylish, but primarily low-priced, furniture and other goods long appealed to college students.  The fact that most of the furniture was designed for very economical shipping was a big plus with students that changed dorms and apartments frequently.  Low price, in addition to the fact that most students are poor, was a benefit in case someone had to leave the stuff behind due to a longer move, downsizing, or simply lost their abode for a while.  That the furniture and some of the other items didn’t hold up all that well wasn’t such a big deal, because nobody intended to keep it once school ended and they could afford something better.

But recent cheapness has caused a lot more people to start buying Ikea.  That has contributed to a lot more growth than the company originally expected in developed countries like the USA.  As sales grew, the company has been pushing year after year to keep lowering costs – and prices.  The CEO proudly touted his ability to relocate manufacturing and distribution in order to drive down U.S. prices on several items.  In language that sounds almost like Wal-Mart, he talks about constantly driving down cost, and price, in order to appeal to Americans – and even continental Europeans – in the throes of being cheap.  Cost, cost, cost in order to sell cheap, cheap, cheap seems to have worked well for Ikea.

And that’s the worry foundation owners should have (Ikea is not publicly traded, it is owned by a foundation.)  Ikea is rapidly catching the Wal-Mart Disease (see this blog 13 October).  Focusing on execution, in order to lower cost, keep lowering price and expecting the market to expand.  This will eventually lead to two very unpleasant side effects:

1. Eventually Ikea will run headlong into Wal-Mart.  And other price-focused competitors in the USA and other countries.  In doing so, margins will be crimped, as will growth.  When 2 (or more) companies compete on cost/price it creates a price war, and if it’s between Ikea and Wal-Mart expect the war to be incredibly bloody (this is also bad news for Microsoft shareholders, who are going to increasingly see Ikea join other competitors in pressuring Wal-Mart’s strategy.)
2. What will happen to Ikea’s growth if the market shifts?  What will happen if customers quit focusing on price, and start looking for better products (longer lasting, higher quality materials, increased sturdiness – for examples)?  Or if they want different designs?  Or they get tired of the long drives to those huge Ikea stores, and prefer shopping closer to home?  Quite simply, what will happen to Ikea’s growth if something besides price retakes importance for customers in developed countries?

There is no doubt Ikea has had a great run.  But in large part, fortuitous economic events played a big role.  The rising percentage of youth going to colleges, as well as the large migration of developing country students to developed country universities, helped propel the need for affordable items appealing to students.  Then the economic faltering post-2000, combined with the banking crisis, created a very slow economy in developed countries.  Suburbanization gave Ikea the opportunity to build massive stores at affordable cost to which customers could flock.  For 30 years these trends benefitted companies with a price focus – such as Ikea (and Wal-Mart). And all the company had to do was “more of the same.”

But will that remain the long-term trend?  As households downsize, home prices stabilize then recover, developed economies improve, jobs grow again and incomes start rising is it possilble that customers will want something beyond low price? 

And when that happens, will Ikea find itself so locked-in to its strategy that it cannot adjust to market shifts?  What will it do with those manufacturing centers, distribution hubs and huge stores then?  How will it be able to recognize the change in customer needs, and alter its merchandise – and stores – to meet changing needs?  Or will Ikea rely far too long on improving execution of the strategy that got it where the company is today?  Will its decision-making processes, designed to improve execution, keep Ikea making cheap furniture and other goods long after competing on price is sufficient?

Ikea is likely to do well for at least a couple more years.  But one can already see how the company, and its CEO, have locked-in on what worked early in the company lifecycle.  And now the focus is on executing the old strategy – reinforcing what the company locked-in upon.  And there doesn’t seem to be a lot of concern about dealing with potential market shifts. 

Most worrisome of all was the CEO’s comment, “I tend not to look so much at competition.”  In a very real way, this shows a blindness towoard looking for price wars and market shifts.  A blindness toward identifying emerging trends.  A blindness toward identifying there may be groth opportunities in a year or two that are better than simply continuing to do what Ikea has always done.  And even for a fast growing company, luckily positioned in the right place at the right time, this is something to be worried about.