Search results for "illinois"

The End of Trumpism

by Adam Hartung | Jan 22, 2021 | eBooks, Politics, Strategy, Trends

Click for ebook

Business Trends from COVID19 impact hartung

Thrive to the Future – 4 top trends for 2021 and beyond.

Businesses need to plan for the future. And part of planning are the assumptions you make. As Biden takes office, there is a lot of talk about whether the “movement” that Trump led is at its end, or just beginning. The good news is we have the tools to be predictive when answering that question, and those tools tell us that for the most part Trumpism is over.
As I wrote in August when California put to vote its “Gig Economy Law,” not even a state legislature can stop a trend. The Gig Economy is one of the biggest mega-trends out there, so trying to legislate away the trend and return to old methods of employment was simply not going to work. California needed to make changes that aligned with needs of gig workers, not try to outlaw the practice. And the measure failed.

It’s this same logic that makes me confident the policies that applied the last 4 years will go away, and any “movement” to try and return to that course will not succeed. Like California’s effort, the policies of Trumpism were anti-trend. While these policies could be enforced for a short time, they simply could not withstand the power of the long-term trends, and thus were doomed from the outset. Let’s take a look at some of those policies and trends, and review why they were (at best) short-term actions. {Note, this is not predicting an end to the Republican Party, nor Conservative politics. This discussion is focused on the American policies of the last 4 years during the Trump administration.}

- Anti-globalization is doomed to fail. We have the internet now. Everybody can see what’s happening in the world, and everybody can talk to everybody else. Borders have meaning, but trade across borders cannot be stopped. We all buy and sell products internationally daily. Even the Trump website sold apparel made in China. To try and stop trade is impossible, and tools like tariffs are simply woefully out of date. Those who try to interfere with globalization will have economic suffering, while allowing stronger international traders to grow. { Side note read column on why Brexit is Economic Destruction vs. Creative Destruction }
- Anti-immigration is doomed to fail. America, like almost all mature economies, is an aging demography. If you don’t add new people economic activity will suffocate under the weight of caring for the aged. You need demographic growth, and it needs to be younger people who are working. Simultaneously, companies that need skills need access to international markets to recruit people to work under visas. Immigration is good for economic growth, and an inherent part of globalization. Simply put, America needs immigration to keep growing. { Side note read column on why Japan’s aging demographics is an economic “time bomb”. }
- Chronic tax cuts without equal (or greater) investment is doomed to fail. The argument for low taxes is to provide more money for investing in business to grow – thus creating jobs that see higher pay due to increased demand for workers. However, recent tax cuts did not have associated policies for re-investment, and thus much of the money was used to repurchase shares of stock, make acquisitions of existing businesses and simply build a cash hoard. Simultaneously, tax cuts led to a reduction in government spending on infrastructure and other jobs creating projects, which further worsened the economic growth opportunity. This led to enormous income inequality – which has quite literally led to people “taking to the streets.” At some point policies have to shift toward investment to generate economic growth. { Side note read column on why share buybacks are not good for the economy nor good for shareholders. }
- Isolating China only makes them stronger. We have a balance of trade deficit with China, but tariffs and attempts to stop trade only made the balance of trade WORSE. The net is we want Chinese labor, and products, a lot more than they need American products. Retaliation is very real, and the USA is woefully unprepared for economic retaliation. The biggest market hurt by Chinese retaliation is agriculture, as witnessed by the incredible number of farm failures last 4 years. Them not buying from us doesn’t affect them nearly as much as it affects us. Meanwhile, China keep investing in global projects, their economy keeps growing, and now China’s economy is larger than the USA’s. We desperately need to focus on how to compete with China in global markets, not blindly think we can simply walk away. { Side note column on changing economic positions and how China’s growth is impacting global positions including currency valuations. }
- Sanctions and other policies to try controlling middle-east behavior are doomed. US policy was historically built on petroleum demand. But now these countries must move beyond oil sales to grow, and they desperately know this. The only successful long-term policy is to help these nations grow diversified economies so they can create jobs and keep their citizens happy. {Side note column on how falling petroleum demand is affecting global markets and changing the winners. }
These are just some of the long-term trends that Trumpism ignored. Short-term shear force of will, lying about the data and ignoring the obvious could allow naysayers to hope they would change the trajectory of history. But long-term, trends always win. Evolution always moves forward, never backward. While Trumpism was a very interesting effort to fight trends, it was doomed to fail. And now that we can see the almost wholly negative economic implications of these policies it is extremely unlikely any such “movement” can re-establish itself. People do not act against their own self interest very long.
Winners don’t fear trends and the change they create. Rather they accept the trends on build on them to grow. Looking forward business should not plan for Trumpism to return in any meaningful way. As a set of policies they are as likely to succeed as storming the capital was likely to change the course of an election. Short term a lot of noise, long-term meaningless. So we can move forward building our plans based on trends, and a shift to economic policies much more aligned with long-term trends.

Key lessons?

First, the world is growing and leading businesses will grow. If you’re not growing, you’re dying. Second, never plan from past success, but instead plan for the future. You don’t grow value by being operationally excellent, because the world is forever changing and it will make your past business less valuable even if you do run it well. Third, make sure your plans are all built on trends. Let trends be the wind in your sales, or the current under your boat, or whatever analogy you like – just be sure you’re using TRENDS to drive you business planning, product development and solutions generation. Customers buy trends and help for them to achieve the future.
Here at Spark Partners, we are experts at trend analysis, trend planning and effective resource allocation. Don’t let a comfort level on doing more of the same get in the way of your future growth. Embrace trends in the market and let us help you identify critical trends and invest smarter to build on trends and grow.

Don’t Miss Adam’s Recent Podcasts!

Did you see the trends, and were you expecting the changes that would happen to your demand? It IS possible to use trends to make good forecasts, and prepare for big market shifts. If you don’t have time to do it, perhaps you should contact us, Spark Partners. We track hundreds of trends, and are experts at developing scenarios applied to your business to help you make better decisions.

TRENDS MATTER. If you align with trends your business can do GREAT! Are you aligned with trends? What are the threats and opportunities in your strategy and markets? Do you need an outsider to assess what you don’t know you don’t know? You’ll be surprised how valuable an inexpensive assessment can be for your future business. Click for Assessment info. Or, to keep up on trends, subscribe to our weekly podcasts and posts on trends and how they will affect the world of business at www.SparkPartners.com

Give us a call or send an email. Adam@sparkpartners.com 847-726-8465.

Ignominious Ends- Sears and Malls

by Adam Hartung | Jul 14, 2020 | Disruptions, Innovation, Leadership, Marketing, real estate, Retail, Trends

TRENDS: Covid-19 has accelerated a lot of trends. Few more than retail. Oddly some people have taken the view that Covid-19 changed retail. Actually, it didn’t. The pandemic has merely accelerated trends that have been driving industry change for almost two decades.

Back in 2004, Eddie Lampert bought all the bonds of defunct Kmart and used those assets to do a merger with Sears – creating Sears Holdings that encompassed both brands. The day of announcement Chicago Tribune asked for my opinion, and famously I predicted the merger would be a disaster. Clearly both Kmart and Sears were far, far off trends in retail, both were already struggling – and neither had a clue about emerging e-commerce.

Why in 2004 would I predict Sears would fail? The #1 trend in retail was e-commerce, which was all about individualized customer experience, problem solving for customer needs — and only, finally fulfillment. By increasing “scale” – primarily owning a lot more real estate – this new organization would NOT be more competitive. Walmart was already falling behind the growth curve, and everyone in retail was ignoring the elephant in the room – Amazon.com. Loading up on a lot more real estate, more inventory, more employees, more supplier relationships and more community commitments – old ideas about how to succeed related to fulfillment – would hurt more than help. Retail was an industry in transition. All of these factors were boat anchors on future success, which relied on aggressively moving to greater internet use.

Unfortunately, Eddie Lampert as CEO was like most CEOs. He thought success would come from doing more of what worked in the past. Be better, faster, cheaper at what you used to do. In 2011 Sears asked its HQ town (Hoffman Estates) and the state (Illinois) for tax subsidies to keep the HQ there. Sears had built what was once the world’s once tallest building, named the Sears Tower. But many years earlier Sears left, the building was renamed, and Sears was becoming a ghost of itself. I pleaded with government officials to “let Sears go” since the money would be wasted. And it was clear by 2016, that Lampert and his team’s bias toward old retail approaches had only served to hurt Sears more and guarantee its failure. Now – in 2020 – Hoffman Estates has taken the embarrassing act of removing the Sears name from the town’s arena, admitting Sears is washed up.

****

It was with a multi-year observation of trends that I told people in 2/2017 that retail real estate values would crumble . Now mall vacancies are at an 8 year high and 50% of mall department stores will permanently close within a year. We are “over-stored” and nothing will change the fast decline in retail real estate values. Who knows what will happen to all this empty space?

Trends led me in March 2017 to advise investors they should own NO traditional retail equities. Shortly after Sears filed bankruptcy Radio Shack and storied ToysRUs followed. And with the pandemic acting as gasoline fueling change, we’ve now seen the bankruptcies of Neiman Marcus, JCPenney, J Crew, Forever 21, GNC and Chuck e Cheese (but, really, weren’t you a bit surprised the last one was still even in business?) After 3 years of pre-Covid store closings, Industry pundits are finally predicting “record numbers of store closings”. And, after 15 years of predictions, I’m being asked by radio hosts to explain the impact of widespread failures of both local and national retailers ( ).Ignominious ends are abounding in retail. But – it was all very predictable. The trends were obvious years ago. If you were smart, you moved early to avoid asset traps as valuations declined. You also moved early to get on the bandwagon of trend leaders – like Amazon.com – so you too could succeed.

As we move forward, what will happen to your business? Will you build on trends to create a new future where growth abounds? Will you align your strategy with the future so you “skate to where the puck will be?” Or will you – like Sears and so many others – find an ignominious end to your organization? Will the signs change, or will the signs come down? The trends have never been stronger, the markets have never moved faster and the rewards have never been greater. It’s time to plan for the future, and build your strategy on trends (not what worked in the past.)

But don’t lose sight of the lesson. TRENDS MATTER. If you align with trends your business can do GREAT! Like Facebook. But if you don’t pay attention, and you miss a big trend (like demographic inclusion) the pain the market can inflict can be HUGE and FAST. Like Facebook. Are you aligned with trends? What are the threats and opportunities in your strategy and markets? Do you need an outsider to assess what you don’t know you don’t know? You’ll be surprised how valuable an inexpensive assessment can be for your future business (https://adamhartung.com/assessments/)

Give us a call or send an email. Adam @Sparkpartners.com

Japan Demographics- A “Trend Bomb”

by Adam Hartung | Jan 30, 2018 | Culture, Sports, Trends

“Business Insider says Japan has become “a demographic time bomb.” I guess it’s about time somebody realized that demographic trends are important, and that they can be effective for planning!

It was September, 2016 that I pointed out how important using demographic trends was for planning – and made it clear that Japan was facing a huge problem due to an aging population and unwillingness to allow immigrants. In January, 2017 I reiterated the importance of incorporating demographic trends into planning, demonstrating how they can be important for predicting workforce availability, cost of living, taxation and other critical business issues.

Take for example the NFL. In 2017 the league took another big ratings decline. The second consecutive year. But this was not hard to predict. In September, as the season started, I made it clear that kneeling players were not the problem for the NFL – the demographics of its primary viewers was the big problem. And I predicted that ratings would take a hit in 2017. Demographics have been clearly working against the league, and unless they find a way to bring in younger viewers – probably through rules changes – things are going to get a lot worse, affecting revenues and thus owner profits and even player salaries.

Are you incorporating demographics in your planning? If not, why not? Don’t know which demographic trends are important, or how to apply demographic trends to your business? If you’re stuck, not understanding this critical trend and how it will impact your business, why not give us a call?”

Privacy Policy

by Paul F | Nov 27, 2017

Privacy Policy for www.adamhartung.com Protecting your private information is our priority. This Statement of Privacy applies to www.adamhartung.com and Spark Partners and governs data collection and usage. For the purposes of this Privacy Policy, unless otherwise...