by Adam Hartung | Aug 29, 2012 | Current Affairs, Innovation, Leadership, Transparency, Travel, Web/Tech
Neil Armstrong, the first man to step on the moon died last Saturday. Overall, I was surprised at just how little attention this received. The Republican convention, Hurrican Isaac and many other issues dominated the news, even though Neil Armstrong represents something that had far more impact on our lives than this hurricane, or anyone attending this convention.
Neil Armstrong represents the adventurous spirit of an innovator willing to lead from the front. The advances in flight, and space travel, might have happened without him – or maybe not. Neil Armstrong was willing to see what could be done, willing to experiment and take chances, without being overly concerned about failure. Rather than worrying about what could go wrong, he was willing to see what could go right!
Most of us forget that it has been only 110 years since the Wright brothers made their 12 second, 120 foot flight at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina. Before that, flight had been impossible. Now, in such a short time, we have globalized travel. My father, born in 1912, lived in a world with no planes – or much need for one. I now live in Chicago largely because of O'Hare airport and its gateway (almost always in one leg) to any city. Flight has transformed everything about life, and the world owes a lot to Neil Armstrong for that change.
Neil Armstrong became a pilot at 15 and spent a lifetime pushing the envelope of flight. He not only flew planes, but he obtained an aeronautical engineering degree and used his experiences to help design better, more capable planes. His history of try, fail, test, improve, try, succeed is an example for all leaders:
- Firstly, know what you are talking about. Have the right education, obtain data and apply good analysis to everything you do. Don't operate just "from your gut," or on intuition, but rather know what you're talking about, and lead with knowledge.
- Second, don't be afraid to experiment, learn, improve and grow. Don't rest on what people have done, and proven, before. Don't accept limits just because that's how it was previously done. Constantly build upon the past to reach new heights. Just because it has not been done before does not mean it cannot be done.
Beyond his own leadership, Neil Armstrong is – for much of the world – the face of space travel. The first man on the moon. And that was only possible by being part of, and a leader in, NASA. And we could desperately use NASA today. It was, without a doubt, the most successful economic stimulus program in American history – even though politicians have been moving in the opposite direction for nearly 2 decades!
NASA offered Americans, and in fact the world, the opportunity to invest in science to see what could be done. By setting wildly unrealistic goals the organization was forced to constantly innovate. As a result NASA created and spun off more inventions creating more jobs than Eisenhower's interstate highway program and all other giant government programs combined.
NASA's heyday was from the John Kennedy challenge of 1961 through the lunar landing in 1969. Yet since 1976 alone there have been over 1,400 documented NASA inventions benefiting industry!! Not only did NASA's experiments in flight aid physical globalization, but it was NASA that developed wireless (satellite based) long-distance communications – which now gives us nearly free global voice and data connectivity. And the need to solve complex engineering problems pushed the computer race exponentially, giving us the digital technology now embedded in almost everything we do.
Consider these other NASA innovations that have driven economic growth:
- The microwave oven, and tasty, desirable frozen food used not only in homes but in countless restaurants
- Water filtration for cities and even your refrigerator reducing disease and illness
- High powered batteries – for everything from laptops to cordless tools to electric cars
- Cordless phones, which led to cell phones
- Ear thermometers (for those of us who remember using anal thermometers on sick babies this is a BIG deal)
- Non-destructive testing of rockets and other devices led to what are now medical CAT scanners and MRI machines
- Scratch resistant lenses now used in glasses, and invisible, easy to adjust braces at prices, adjusted for inflation, considered impossible 30 years ago
- Superior coatings for cookware, paints and just about everything
As the American economy sputters, southern Europe looks to drag down economic growth across the continent, and growth slows in China the need for economic stimulus has never been greater. But far too often politicians reach for outdated programs like highways, dams or other construction projects. And monetary stimulus, in the form of lower interest rates and easier money, almost always goes into asset intensive projects like factories – at a time when capacity utilization remains far from any peak. We keep spending, and making money cheap, but it doesn't matter.
We have transitioned from an industrial to an information economy. Effective economic stimulus in 2012 cannot happen by creating labor-intensive, or asset-intensive, programs. Rather it must create jobs built upon the kind of value-added work in today's economy – and that means knowledge-intensive work. Exactly the kind of work created by NASA, and all the subsidiary businesses born of the NASA innovations.
Nobody seems to care about going to space any more. And I must admit, it is not my dream. But in one of his last efforts to help America grow Neil Armstrong told a Congressional committee "It would be as if 16th century Monarchs proclaimed we need not go to the New World, we have already been there." He was so right. We have barely begun understanding the implications of growth created by exploring space. Only our imaginations are limited, not the opportunity.
What Neil Armstrong told us all, and practiced with his actions, was to never stop setting crazy goals. Even when the immediate benefit may be unclear. The journey of discovery unleashes opportunities which create their own benefits – for society, and for our economy. Losing Neil Armstrong is an enormous loss, because we need leaders like him now more than ever.
by Adam Hartung | Aug 26, 2010 | Defend & Extend, In the Whirlpool, Leadership, Lifecycle
Summary:
- Trends happen much faster than we expect
- Old solutions disappear much faster than we anticipate
- Early adopters are big winners, suppliers who expect markets to last longer are killed in end-stage price wars
- We can anticipate the failure of land line phones in just a few years (as declining demand makes infrastructure maintenance too costly)
- There are a lot of other changes coming very quickly, more quickly than many of us anticipate – putting those who are late to change at risk of survival
How long do you think you’ll keep a land-line based telephone? From the looks of things, it may be only another year or two. They may be as popular as an old-fashioned printing press in just 5 years.
Source: Silicon Alley Insider from BusinessInsider.com
As the chart shows, already about a third of Americans have discontinued their land lines. And, we can see the trend is accelerating. This doesn’t count people that have one, but have quit using it. From about half of a percent dropping their line each quarter early in 2007, by 2009 the trend had increased to 1.2 to 1.5 percent dropping their land lines quarterly. And that’s normal – trends accelerate – much faster than incumbent technology suppliers predict.
Mobile phones started out with limited use. They were big, and had short battery life. It was sketchy if transmission quality would be good enough to hear or talk. They were expensive to use, and had limited service areas. In the early days, only people who had a big need used them. It took a few years before adoption grew to where most people had one. But then, in the last 5 years, it has become clear that almost everyone has one. Even the old and elderly. And many people have two – one for personal and one for business.
When trends begin they are easy to discount. Early versions are less good than the current solution. Costs are high. But early adopters have a reason to pick up the new solution. There is some kind of unmet need that the solution fits. From that small base, the products improve. Most incumbent suppliers plot out a linear curve adoption curve, and expect dropping of the old solution to be some time way out in the future.
But improvements to the “fringe” solution come faster than incumbents – and even big users of incumbent technologies – expect. Adoption starts growing faster. Yet, the incumbent supplier will listen to big customers and expect people to keep their solutions for a long time as they gradually adopt the new:
- People will have an automobile, but they’ll hang onto the horse and buggy because roads are so poor
- He may buy a new copier, but he’ll keep the mimeo machine “just in case”
- Folks will get a phone, and email, but they’ll keep writing letters and thus need a postman daily
- People may buy refrigerators, but they’ll keep the icebox and want weekly ice delivery
- Readers will skim the web for news, but they’ll want to keep reading a daily newspaper
- PCs will be popular, but folks will hang onto that old typewriter “maybe to type envelopes or something”
- Installing spreadsheets on company PC’s will not eliminate the need for adding machines “for when we need the tape”
- Digital cameras will be convenient, but users will want the film camera for picture prints
- Installing a DVR will not eliminate the videocassette player because people “still may want to watch old tapes some day”
- People will keep their cassette players, and DVD players, even as they buy a new MP3 player because they will want to listen to the purchased collections
Actually, once someone adopts the new solution, they rapidly find no need for the old solution. It goes to the closet, and then the trash, quickly. And from a market perspective, once a third to a half the customers quit using a product it will disappear from use almost overnight. From that perspective, those who depend upon traditional land line phones have plenty to worry about. Because we’re near a third. And smart phones keep adding more capability every month – the iPhone now has almost 300,000 apps, and Android phones have over 100,000! It’s easy to see where the functionality, ease of use and ubiquitousness of mobile phones could make the old land line a waste of money within just 24 months!
So, what will happen to bill collectors and political phone ads (robocalls), when we quit using land lines? Along with the loss of land lines is the loss of the traditional phone book to find people. When will the cost of maintaining the poles and lines become so high, relative to the number of users, that we simply take them down to recycle the material? Lots of things change when growth begins to decline for land-lines, causing the decline to happen more quickly. And changing how we all get things done – as consumers and as businesses. Are you prepared?
The tendency is to think change will happen slowly. It doesn’t. When markets shift it happens quickly. Much more quickly than the entrenched competitor expects. The “experts” always say the demand for the old will last much longer than happens. He hopes to have a long life, clipping coupons, across a “maturing” market. Instead, demand falls rapidly and remaining competitors go into price wars trying to stay alive – hoping the market will some day return to the old way of doing things. Those who didn’t anticipate the shift rapidly run out of cash, and fail.
Are you ready for impending market shifts? How prepared are you for a world where
- We don’t print anything, because everyone has some kind of on-line digital document reader. Not just books and magazines, but user instructions, warranty info, etc.
- We don’t need cash because we can Paypal transact anything using our smartphone
- Doctors can monitor all your vital statistics real time, remotely, 24x7x365. Manufacturers can monitor use of their products 24x7x365
- So much retail is on-line that the amount of retail floor space declines 40%
- You can regrow a finger, or organ, if it is damaged
- Television and radio aren’t serially broadcast, you organize what you want when you want it. There are no “commercials” in content delivery
- The primary way of communicating with friends and colleagues is Facebook and Twitter – forget text except for only very private communications
by Adam Hartung | Dec 2, 2009 | Current Affairs, Defend & Extend, In the Swamp, In the Whirlpool, Leadership
"Henderson Never Fit In At GM Helm" is the Detroit Free Press headline. Imagine that – the CEO of GM has been asked to leave. Industry sales are down about 24%, and GM is down 32%. Meanwhile, Mr. Henderson had proposed selling 4 divisions (Saab, Opel, Hummer and Saturn) – which were the most interesting divisions in the company – and none of those deals have closed. In fact, 3 have fallen apart completely. Only the Hummer sale to a Chinese firm is potentially going to happen. In fact, it's hard to find anything good that's happened at GM since Mr. Henderson took over. Including closing Pontiac.
When the government invested in GM this year the existing Chairman/CEO, Rick Waggoner, was forced to resign. Imagine that, after puting several bilion in a company the investor's transition team replaced the CEO who got the company into bankruptcy, almost out of cash, with no plan for recovery. Also, the Board, which had allowed GM to get into such a mess without even raising tough questions, was replaced. All seems remarkably sensible given the sorry state of the company.
The goverment led transition team, which rocketed GM through bankruptcy, cleaned the ceiling, but then selected Mr. Waggoner's hand-picked successor (Mr. Henderson) to replace him. The claim was they'd need 6 months to search for somebody new and didn't want to take the time. And they put in a lifetime monopolist, Mr. Whiteacre of AT&T, as Chairman. And a 40+ year industry veteran was made head of marketing (Mr. Lutz.) And a 40+ year company employee was kept as CFO. And we're supposed to be surprised that things aren't going well?
The Chairman and replacement CEO says of the company says "Whiteacre: GM On the Right Path," also in the Detroit Free Press. But do you believe him? What does he know about competing successfully against intense foreign led competitors who move fast? The AT&T that trained him early in his career failed horribly, never succeeding in any market outside the U.S. and getting cleaned by offshore competitors in hardware and mobile telephony. And as head of Southwestern Bell, all he did was rebuild the old "Bell system" of land-line companies – without effectively taking a leading position in any new telephony business. Or any other business. Broadband, mobile phones, digital television – can you think of any market where today's AT&T is a technology, product development, innovation or other market leader? He may have bought up a bunch of the old spun out businesses, but those are on their last legs as people give up land lines and transition to a different sort of connected future.
What's surprising is that GM isn't doing worse. But it's unlikely Mr. Whiteacre, or Mr. Henderson's replacement, will do much better. Several candidates are from inside GM – all with the same Lock-ins that allowed Messrs. Waggoner, Henderson and Lutz to perform so abysmally – despite incredible pay packages for many years. In "Selling GM's CEO Job to be Tough Task" (Detroit Free Press) headhunters claim that the industry is so complex they'll have a hard time finding someone talented who will work for the pay. Balderdash. That's only true because they are so Locked-in to traditional thinking about who should lead GM that they keep trying to recycle already overpaid CEOs who have done little for shareholders. That's not what's needed at GM.
Give us a break. Who would want an industry veteran in the job at all? And why would a recruiter hunt for somebody with a lot of industrial-era Lock-ins. GM's investors (that's the citizens of the USA and Canada,) employees and vendors need somebody who's ready to move beyond the old industry and company Success Formulas and do something very different. Willing to develop entirely new scenarios of the future which alter the competitive playing field and then Disrupt the organization in order to start doing new things. Before Tata Motors and China's Chery auto join the other companies ready to put GM into the grave.
It's amazing how "inside the box" the people who are leading GM, and advising the company, remain. Why not try to recruit somebody from Tesla to take over? The long-delayed electric Chevy Volt might well get to market faster – and in a more desirable form – if that were to happen. Or how about an heir apparent at fast growing Cisco Systems? Those people know how to pay attention to the market and move quickly to give customers what they need – profitably.
Turning around GM requires leadership that will change the Success Formula. Not try to Defend it, or Extend it with slowly evolving variations and minimal change. The whole house needs to be cleaned. The investor representatives who led the transition pulled up short of finishing their job. Only by bringing in new managers who are willing to see a very different future, unbounded by the GM legacy, can GM's competitive position be changed – and if GM tries to keep competing the way it has Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Tata Motors, et. all will eat GM's dinner. And only by Disrupting the old Lock-ins, using White Space teams to develop new solutions, can GM regain viability.
