How the World Series Lost Relevancy

How the World Series Lost Relevancy

I was born the 1950s.  In my youth of the ’60s there was no doubt that the #1 sport in America was baseball.  Almost every boy owned a bat, ball and glove and played baseball.  When we went out for recess there was always a softball game somewhere on the playground.

Fathers told stories about how on the battlefields of WWII they would shout questions about baseball players and World Series statistics to each other to determine if the “other guy out there” was an American, or a German trying to sucker the Americans into the open.  Baseball was so relevant every American was expected to know the details of players, games and series.

In that era, lots of baseball was played in the daytime, since the game and its parks preceded the era of great field lighting.  Men regularly took off work to attend ball games, and it was considered fairly normal.  People listened to baseball games on the radio at work.

world series 2015And when the World Series came along, which was played around Labor Day, it was so beloved that people took TVs to work, hooked up makeshift antenna and watched the games.  Even schools would set up a TV on the gymnasium stage and let the students watch the game — and some enterprising teachers would set up televisions in their classrooms and eschew teaching in favor of watching the series.  It was even bigger than today’s Super Bowl, as pretty nearly everyone watched or listened to the World Series.

No longer.  World Series viewership has been on a decline for at least 40 years.  According to Wikipedia, World Series viewership was about 35million in the 1986-1991 timeframe. By 1998-2005 viewership was down to averaging 20million – a 40% decline. By 2008-2014 viewership had declined to 12million -another 40% decline – or a loss of 2/3 the viewership in 25 years.

By comparison, regular season games in the NFL 2014 season averaged about 18million viewers, and 114million people watched the February, 2015 Superbowl – almost 10 times World Series viewership. Even the women’s FIFA World Cup soccer match last July drew 25million American viewers – twice the World Series.

Are you aware the World Series is happening now?  I will forgive you if you didn’t know.  Marketwatch.com headlined “This Is the Most Exciting World Series No One is Watching.” From what was the #1 sporting event in America, and possibly the world, 50 years ago the World Series has become nearly irrelevant for most people.

Why?  Trends have made the World Series, and really baseball, obsolete.

Big Trend #1 – We’re out of time.  The pace of life is far, far different today than it was in 1965.  Laconic weekday afternoons lounging in a ballpark to watch a game are a thing of the past.  The fact that baseball has no time limit is probably its most negative feature.  Games are a minimum of 9 innings, but in case of a tie they can last many, many more.  Further, if it rains the game is delayed, which can extend the time an hour or more.  Thirdly, you have no idea how long an inning may take.  15 minutes, or an hour, all depending on a raft of variables that are impossible to predict.

Game 1 of this current series is a great example of the problem this creates.  The game lasted 14 innings.  There was a rain delay in the middle of the game.  Overall, it was a 5 hour 9 minute event.  While this set a new record for a World Series game length, it clearly demonstrates the problem of a sporting event which has no clock.

The most popular games are highly clock bound.  Football and basketball not only have limits on the game length, there is a clock limiting the time between plays (or shots.)  Soccer is timebound, and there are no time outs.  In these games that have greatly grown popularity people know how long a game will take, and that is important.

Big Trend #2 – Action.  When was the last time you played a board game, like Monopoly or Life?  Do you even own one any longer?  Today games are action intensive.  In the 1960s a pinball machine was the closest thing anyone had to an “action game.”  Look at any game today, via console, computer or mobile device, and there is action.  Even Tetris had action to it, and that is nothing compared to the modern video game.  People now like action.

Then there is baseball.  A “perfect game” – the ultimate for this sport – happens when 21 people bat, and every one walks back  to the dugout without reaching base.  Quite literally, nothing happens.  A pitcher and catcher play catch, while the batters watch.  The next most vaunted game is a “no-hitter,” in which people reach base via a walk or an error – but it again reflects a lack of action in that no batter achieved a hit.  The third most celebrated game is a “shutout,” meaning one team literally ended the game with a score of Zero.  Goose egg.

Baseball is a game of very little action.  A really good game often ends with each team having less than 10 hits.  It is rare for there to be more than 2 home runs in a game, and often there are games with no home runs at all.  Heck, even in golf at least the athletes are hitting the ball 60+ times apiece!

We live in a world today where people run for fun.  Or ride bicycles.  Where people join gyms to work out on treadmills, rowers, stationary bikes and weight machines.  Nobody did this kind of thing in the 1960s.  People today are active, and being active is a sign of health, vitality and well-being.  Sedentary behaviors are frowned upon.  There is no sport with less action than baseball (except maybe darts.)

Big Trend #3 – Globalization.  Despite Mr. Donald Trump’s xenophobic appeal, globalization is an unstoppable trend.  Our businesses and our lives are increasingly global, as it is doubtful any American goes a day without touching a product or service delivered from an offshore source.  And unlikely most Americans live any given day without talking to someone born in a foreign country, or entertaining them with news, information, sports or programming from outside the USA.

There is no sport which makes this clearer than soccer. Due to its global appeal, 715million people watched the final game of the 2006 World Cup (55 times the World Series.)  909million people watched the final 2010 World Cup game (71.5 times the current World Series.)  [note: FIFA has not published numbers for the 2014 final game in Brazil, but it is surely going to exceed 1B viewers.]

American impact? There were almost as many Americans (11million) that watched the first round match between the USA and Ghana in the 2014 World Cup as are now watching a World Series Game.  And the 2014 World Cup final game had 17.3M U.S. viewers – 34% more than are watching the World Series this year.

Basketball has some international appeal, as there are leagues across Europe and some in South America.  And my son was shocked at how much people watched and played basketball on his trip to China. And we see globalization reflected in the players names now in the NBA.

We also see globalization reflected in the NHL, which has many players from outside the USA.  And viewership is growing for NHL Stanley Cup games, although it is still only about half the World Series.  But given the trajectories of viewership, and the fact that hockey is both a timed sport as well as action-filled, Stanley Cup watchers could exceed World Series watchers in just a few years.

Simply put, baseball has never extended strongly beyond the USA and Japan.  Lacking competitive teams and viewers outside the USA, as well as limited non-USA player recruitment, this “most American of sports” is off one of the country’s (and planet’s) major trends.

In short, the world moved and baseball did not change with the times.  People don’t live today like they did in the 1930s-1960s.  Trends are vastly different.  New sports that were better linked to major trends, and which adapted to trends (by adding things like shot clocks and play clocks, for example) have gained viewers, while baseball has declined.

Baseball didn’t do anything wrong.  It just didn’t adapt.  And competitors have moved in.  Just like happens in business — which, of course, is the reason we have professional sports – you either adapt or you become obsolete.

The World Series was once the most relevant sporting event on the globe.  No longer.  And lacking some major changes in the game, its ability to ever grow again is seriously questionable.

 

 

Why Tom Brady’s Deflategate Win is Bad for Leadership

Why Tom Brady’s Deflategate Win is Bad for Leadership

Tom Brady’s lawyers convinced a judge this week (9/3/15) to over-rule his four game suspension for using under-inflated footballs in playoff games.  This could seem like making a mountain out of a molehill, if it wasn’t so important a statement about bad leadership.

In 1925 golf legend Bobby Jones was playing the U.S. Open when he called a penalty on himself.  He claimed that as he moved his club near the ball during his set up he “felt the ball move.”  The judges asked the other players if they saw anything which should cause a penalty, and they said no.  The judges asked the spectators if they say the ball move, and unanimously everyone said no.  So the judges told Mr. Bobby Jones that he need not call a penalty, and he should play on.  But Mr. Jones said that he was sure, so he called the penalty on himself.

He lost the U.S. Open by 1 stroke.  Had he not called that penalty he would have been in a playoff and may well  have won.  And that is the kind of thing which creates a legend.  Leadership based on honor and ability.

DeflategateIt strains credulity to think Mr. Brady did not know he was playing with under-inflated footballs.  This man has won four Superbowls, and been named most valuable player (MVP) 3 times.  He is an athlete in the top 1% of professional football players.  He touches the football on every play he is in the game, and he has thrown millions of passes in games and practices over his long career.  Yet we are to believe he could not feel that these balls were somehow different?

I am a lousy golfer, not nearly good enough to play in amateur, much less professional, tournaments.  Yet even I can tell the difference in a golf ball, which I hit with a 3 foot long stick that has a mallet on the end.  Professional golfers can talk eloquently about the feel of a golf ball and how it shapes their shots.

Yet we are to believe that Mr. Brady does not have enough sense of feel in his multi-million dollar hands to notice these balls were under-inflated and thereby easier to control?  Few professionals believe he did not know.

Tom Brady had his opportunity to call a penalty on himself, and he did not do it.  He could have told his coaches, management or officials that the balls felt soft and this should be checked.  But his desire to win kept him from pointing out something minor – but something upon which winning or losing could have turned. Then, when he was caught and it was proven he used under-inflated balls, he had the opportunity to say “this was wrong, and I will accept whatever penalty in hopes that this never happens in professional football again.”  But instead he refused to accept his penalty and sued the league.

This is NOT the stuff upon which legends are made.

Mr. Brady is a role model for thousands, possibly millions, of football fans and young aspiring athletes.  He had the opportunity to show great leadership.  Whether Mr. Jones would have won that U.S. Open or not, he forever showed that athletic leaders should never stoop to cheating.  No matter how small.  Not only by winning golf tournaments did Mr. Jones become a leader, but by his behavior he demonstrated leadership requires honesty, integrity and trust.

As head of the NFL, Mr. Roger Goodell has used this experience to reinforce the better parts of athletic competition.  He tried to demonstrate a commitment to athletic leadership and fairness.  He did not ban Mr. Brady from the sport, but rather told him he must sit out 4 games for his error in judgement as a leader.  This is not unreasonable, and Mr. Goodell gave Mr. Brady an opportunity to demonstrate leadership, and his own commitment to the principles of good leadership.

Mr. Brady could have used this opportunity to help himself, his teammates, his coaches and everyone who watches sports understand the role of a leader.  But instead, he chose to argue for the concept of win at any cost.  He will forever be remembered as someone who probably cheated, when perhaps cheating was not even necessary to win.  And he will be remembered for promoting to millions of fans and followers that winning at any cost – even if you have to go to court – is more important than demonstrating good leadership.

When leaders think they are beyond punishment, bad things happen.  Look at Bernie Ebbers of Worldcom, Dennis Koslowski at Tyco and Jeffrey Skilling at Enron.  To them winning was all that mattered.  They hurt millions of employees, customers, suppliers and investors with such hubris.  They were bad leaders, and bad role models.  While Mr. Brady will not go to jail, his role in teaching bad leadership principles is fully entrenched – and likely will affect many more future leaders than the worst American business has thus far produced.

 

 

Why Twitter Won the SuperBowl While Traditional Ad Execs Don’t Get It

Reading reviews of Super Bowl ads I was struck by two observations:

  1. The reviewers got the value of most ads backwards
  2. They missed the most important ad of all – on Twitter

Super Bowl ads cost $1M+ to make.  Then they cost $2M+ to air.  So it is an expensive proposition.  This isn't fine art, like a Picasso, with a long shelf life to create a rate of return.  These ads need to pay off fast.  They need to build the brand with existing and/or new customers to drive sales and make back that money now.

So let's start with one of the best reviewed ads – Chrysler's "God Made a Farmer". Reviewers liked the home-spun approach of using a dead conservative radio commentator voicing over pictures of farmers in pick-ups.  Unfortunately, from a rate of return perspective my bet is this ad will end up near the very bottom.  

  • Firstly, the 50 year trend is to urbanization.  In 1900 9 out of 10 Americans had something to do with agriculture.  Now it is fewer than 1 in 20.  Trucks are used for lots of things, but farming makes up a small percentage.  It has been a full generation since most 2nd generation Americans had anything to do with a farm.  Showing people using a product in ways that almost nobody uses it, and with a message most of your target market doesn't even recognize, leaves most people confused rather than ready to buy.
  • Secondly, first generation Americans are changing the demographics of America quickly.  First generation Americans (can I say immigrant?) proved large enough, and powerful enough, to play a spoiler role in Mitt Romney's run for the Presidency.  To them, farming in America has no history, appeal or meaning to their lives. 
  • Thirdly, no one under the age of 35 has any idea who Paul Harvey is.  Perhaps Chrysler could have used Bill O'Reilly and achieved its message mission.  But as it was, there were two of us +50 people who spent 5 minutes trying to tell the group watching the game at my home who Paul Harvey even was – and why he was being quoted.

A 24 year old boy watching the game with me in suburban Chicago listened to my explanation about Paul Harvey and farming.  He drives a Ford F-250 4×4 pick-up.  After I finished he looked me square in the eyes and said "Swing, and a miss."  And that's what I'd say to Chrysler.  Whoever made this ad had more money than market research and common sense.

Simultaneously, reviewers hated GoDaddy.com's "Perfect Match, Bar Rafieli's Big Kiss." This portrayed a very stereotypical engineer enjoying a long kiss with a pretty girl – referring to how the company's products well serve client needs.  Reviewers found the ad in bad taste.  My bet is this ad will have immediate payback for GoDaddy.com

Have you ever heard of the monstrously successful situation comedy "The Big Bang Theory?"  At just about any time you can find this in reruns on at least one, if not more than one, cable channel.  The show is so successful that to pull people viewers to its Monday night schedule CBS actually chose to rerun "Big Bang" episodes amidst new episodes of its other programs in January.  The show thrives on the tension of male technical professionals seeking to solve the age old question of how a man can appeal to desirable ladies.  Politically correct or not, the show is successful because it is a timeless message.  Most boys want to be liked by girls.

Today the world of people who have technical, or quasi-technical jobs, is HUGE.   GoDaddy's target audience of people buying, and servicing, web domains just happens to be mostly male under-40 men with technical or quasi-technical backgrounds.  This little, tasteless demonstration may have upset the high ethics of ad execs (or has "Mad Men" unraveled that myth?) but to its target group this ad was pure gold.  And same for GoDaddy.com.

But most importantly, none of these ads will have the payback of 9 words a marketer tweeted when the lights went out at the game.  Because it had blown a huge wad of money on a traditional game ad the Oreo brand folks at Mondelez were watching the game with their media agency 360i.  Thinking quickly the creatives came up with an idea, and the brand guys approved it – so out went the tweet from Oreo Cookies "No problem.  You can still dunk in the dark."

"Booya" as my young friends say.  10,000 retweets and an entire Monday news cycle devoted to the quick thinking folks who posted this tweet.  ROI?  Given that the incremental cost was zero, pretty darn high. If I was investing, I'd take the tweet over the video.  The equivalent of a kick return for a TD.

The world has changed.  We now live in a 24×7, real-time, always-on world.  We no longer wait for the weekly magazine for analysis, or the daily newspaper for information.  Or even the 11:00 television daily recap.  We pick up alerts on our mobile devices constantly.  Receive highlights from friends on Facebook and Twitter.  We want our information NOW.  And those who connect to this new way of living for providing us information are not only accepted, but admired by those thriving on the social networks.

This year's Super Bowl social media postings were triple last year's; over 30million.  This is the world of immediate feedback.  Immediate discussion.  And the place were ads need to be immediate as well.  Those who understand this, and connect to it, will succeed.  Others, who spend too much to make and then distribute ads on traditional media, will not.  Just as newspaper ads have lost of their relevance – TV ads are destined for the same conclusion.

The good news is that Mondelez and its Oreos team was ready, and willing, to take advantage.  Where were most of the other advertisers?  Audi, VW and P&G's Tide also jumped in.  But of all those millions spent on once-run ads, these major corporate advertisers – and their extremely highly paid ad agencies – were absent.  When the easy money was to be made, they simply weren't there.  Off drinking beer and watching the game when they should have been working!

Today we learned Twitter is buying Bluefin to make its information on who is tweeting, about what, in real time even better.  This will be helpful for any smart advertiser.  And not just the multi-billion dollar giants.  The good news is anyone, anywhere in any size company can play in this real-time, on-line social media world.  You don't have to be huge, or rich. 

Where were you when the lights went out?  Were you taking advantage of what we may later call a "once in a lifetime" opportunity? 

Where will you be the next time?  Are you ready to invest in the new world of social media advertising?   Or are you stuck spending too much to come in too late?

Swim with the current – Newspapers, Facebook, YouTube

Over the last week everyone has heard stories about how Facebook, and Twitter, became primary communication conduits for people with connections in Haiti.  Telephone and slower communication vehicles simply have not been able to connect family and friends in this crisis like Facebook.  When shift happens, it accelerates as new uses come to the forefront quickly.  For everyone trying to connect with employment candidates, suppliers and customers this shift has immediate and important impact on behavior.

Yahoo v facebook audience 

Source:  Silicon Alley Insider

For advertisers, the impact is significant.  Where should ad dollars be placed?  On a traditional home page and search site – like Yahoo! – or on Facebook?

And it's not just the sites themselves, but how long people are on these sites.  From an advertising point of view, you can start to think about Facebook – and YouTube – almost like a "channel" from early television days.  Where the audience comes back again and again – offering you not only a large audience, but more opportunities to reach them more often.  Facebook and YouTube are beginning to dominate the "user views."

Facebook page views
Source:  Silicon Alley Insider

YouTube viewing
Source:  Silicon Alley Insider

Of course, the impact isn't just regarding the web, but how any business would use media to reach a target audience.  Most advertising agencies, and ad people, are still focused on traditional media.  But, as we can see, that WILL shift — even more than it traditionally has.

Time spent v. ad spending
Source:  Silicon Alley Insider

Anybody investing in newspapers, expecting a resurgence in value, is pretty foolish.  Newspapers are going to lose ad dollars – not gain.  Relatively, newspapers already are getting too much of the ad spend.  Talk radio has growth.  And clearly the web.  Since we can expect that newspaper and magazine readership will continue recent downward trends, and television is fragmenting as well as stalling, the big growth is on the internet.

The market shift is really pretty clear.  We aren't speculating about the market direction with this data.  The question becomes, will you be an early adopter of these new media channels or not?  Given that the web and mobile have the lowest ad rates of all media, why wouldn't you?  Over the last 2 months Pepsi has decided to NOT advertise on the Super Bowl, instead putting the money into social media.  And after introducing the Granite Concept car at the Detroit auto show, even behind-the-times GM is now considering a launch of this vehicle, intended for buyers under 35, using only web advertising.

So what are your plans?  Do you have scenarios where Facebook and YouTube are integral to your marketing?  Do you have pages, groups and channels on these sites?  Do you post content? Are you using them to interact with potential customers, vendors and employees?  If not – what are you waiting on?  Do you need a Disruption to create some White Space and get started?  If so – isn't it time to get going?