Why Google Created a Self-Driving Car and DuPont Didn’t

Why Google Created a Self-Driving Car and DuPont Didn’t

This week a self-driving car built by Delphi of England completed a 9 day trip from San Francisco to New York City.  The car traveled 3,400 miles, and was fully automated for 99% of the trip.

Attention has again focused on self-driving cars.  There are a handful of players entering the market today, including Apple.  But the most famous company by far is Google, which has put over 700,000 autonomous miles on its vehicles since pioneering the concept after winning a DARPA challenge to build a functioning prototype in 2005.  In fact, we’re so used to hearing about the Google self-driving car that many of have stopped asking “Why Google?  They aren’t in the auto business.”

Google Car

Of course the idea of a self-driving auto is as old as the Jetson’s (and if you don’t know who the Jetson’s are you are, that was a long time ago.)  And nobody should be surprised to hear that prototypes have been on the drawing board for 5 decades.  But I bet you didn’t know that DuPont was once seriously engaged in such development.

In 1986 DuPont was America’s largest and most noteworthy chemical company.  The company was a pioneer in petrochemicals, and was considered the company that brought the world plastic – at a time when plastic was considered a great, new invention.  A leader in films of all sorts, DuPont leadership saw the opportunity for electronics to replace film in applications such as printing (where films were used in high volume for platemaking and proofing) and healthcare (where xRays and MRIs were a large film users.)  They conceived of a future time when computers and monitors – digitial products – could replace analog film, and they chose to create a new business unit called Electronic Imaging to pioneer developing these applications.

As the team started they expanded the definition of Electronic Imaging to include all sorts of applications for digital imaging – and using all kinds of technologies.  The breadth of analysis, and product development, included non-destructive parts testing, infrared uses such as heads-up displays and inventory identification, and radar applications.  Which led the team to using a radar for automating an automobile.

In 1987 DuPont invested in a small company out of San Diego that accomplished something never done before.  Using a phased-array radar hooked up to the brakes of a van, they were able to have the car recognize objects in front of the van, calculate in real time the distance between the van and these forward objects, calculate the relative speed of both objects (whether one or both were stationary or moving) and then apply braking in order to maintain a safe distance.  If the forward object stopped, then the van would come to a complete stop.

This was all done with discreet componentry, and the team realized future success required developing more specific electronics, including specialized integrated chips that could operate faster and be more error-free.  So they drove the prototype from San Diego to Wilmington, DE with a person behind the wheel, but relying as much as possible on the automated system to do all braking.  The team collected data on location, speed, weather, traffic conditions, and many other items during the journey and prepared to take the project forward, planning to eventually build a module which could be installed in vehicles as small as cars or as large as 18-wheelers, with enough intelligence to adjust for different vehicle designs and applications (in order to calibrate for different braking distances.)

Net/net they had a working prototype.  The product was expected to reduce the number of accidents by assisting drivers with braking.  Multi-car pile-ups would become a thing of the past.  And this device could potentially allow for better traffic flow because automated braking would reduce – maybe eliminate! – rear-end collisions.  This wasn’t a self-driving car, but it was self-braking car, which would be a first step toward the sort of Jetson’s-esque vision the young team imagined.

What happened?

It didn’t take long for the older, “wiser” leadership to shut down the project.  Even though several executives participated in a controlled demonstration of the prototype in an enclosed DuPont parking lot, the conclusion was that this project demonstrated just how off-track the new Electronic Imaging Department had become, and that it was clear folks needed to be reigned in and budgets cut:

  1. This clearly had nothing to do with film or replacing film.  DuPont was a chemical company, and to the extent it had any interest in electronics it was where they were applied to potentially cannibalize film sales.  Products which were not closely aligned with historical products were simply not to be pursued.
  2. DuPont had no history in radar, analogue electronics or development of integrated circuits.  Yes, DuPont had an Electronics Department, but they sold film for solder masking and other applications of semiconductor and electronics manufacturing.  DuPont was a chemical company, not a computer company or electronics company and this division was not going to change this situation.
  3. This product was seen as carrying too much liability risk.  What if it failed?  What if the car ran over a child?  The auto industry was seen as litigious, and DuPont had no interest in a product that could have the kind of liability this one would generate.  Yes, there was an Auto Department, but it sold films for safety glass, plastic sheets used for molding inside panels, and surface coatings which could be painted on the inside and/or outside of the vehicle.  But those did not have the kind of failure possibility of this active radar device.  [“By the way” the vice-Chairman asked “could that radar fry someone’s innards at a crosswalk?”]
  4. The market is too limited.  Who would really want an automatic braking system?  Given what it might cost, only the most expensive cars could install it, and only the wealthiest customers could afford it.  This product was destined for niche use, at best, and would never have widespread installation.

Poof, away went the automatic automobile braking project.  Once this dagger had been thrown, within just a few months everything that wasn’t printing or medical – in fact anything that wasn’t tied to printing films, xRays and MRI – was gone.  Within 2 years leadership decided that for some variant of the 4 issues above the entire Electronic Imaging division was a bad idea.  DuPont would be better served if it stuck to its core business, and if it spent money defending and extending film sales rather than trying to cannibalize them.

DuPont liked competing in the oceans where it had long competed.  Venturing beyond those oceans was simply too risky. Today, 25 years later, DuPont is about 1/3 the size it was when its leaders launched the ill-fated Electronic Imaging division.

Google obviously has a different way of looking at the opportunity for automating automobile operation.  Since winning the DARPA competition Google has spent a goodly sum building and testing ways to automate driving.  And it has even gone so far as lobbying to make self-driving cars legal, which they now are in 4 states.  Pessimists remain, but every quarter more people are thinking that self-driving cars will be here sooner than we might have imagined.  This week’s cross-country achievement fuels speculation that the reality could be just around the corner.

Google seems happy to compete in new oceans.  It dominates search, where its share is attacked every day by the likes of Yahoo and Microsoft.  But simultaneously Google has invested far outside its core market, including software for PCs (Chrome) and mobile devices (Android), hardware (Nexus phones), media (Blogger, YouTube), payments (Wallet) and even self-driving cars.  To what extent these, and dozens of other non-core products/services, will pay off for investors is yet to be determined.  But at least Google’s leadership is able to overcome the desire to restrict the company’s options and look for future markets.

Which kind of organization is yours?  Do you find reasons to kill new projects, or are you willing to experiment at creating new markets which might create dramatic growth?

Be Really Glad Bezos Bought The Washington Post

Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon worth $25.2B just paid $250 million to become sole owner of The Washington Post

Some think the recent rash of of billionaires buying newspapers is simply rich folks buying themselves trophies.  Probably true in some instances – and that benefits no one.  Just look at how Sam Zell ruined The Chicago Tribune and Los Angeles Times.  Or Rupert Murdoch's less than stellar performance owning The Wall Street Journal.  It's hard to be excited about a financially astute commodities manager, like John Henry, buying The Boston Globe – as it has all the earmarks of someone simply jumping in where angels fear to tread.

These companies lost their way long ago.  For decades they defined themselves as newspaper companies.  They linked everything about what they did to printing a daily paper.  The service they provided, which was a mix of hard news and entertainment reporting, was lost in the productization of that service into a print deliverable. 

So when people started to look for news and entertainment on-line, these companies chose to ignore the trend.  They continued to believe that readers would always want the product – the paper – rather than the service. And they allowed themselves to remain fixated on old processes and outdated business models long after the market shifted.

The leaders ignored the fact that advertisers could obtain much more directed placement at targets, at far lower cost, on-line than through the broad-based, general ads placed in newspapers.  And that consumers could get a much faster, and cheaper, sale via eBay, CraigsList or Vehix.com than via overpriced classified ads. 

Newspaper leadership kept trying to defend their "core" business of collecting news for daily publication in a paper format.  They kept trying to defend their local advertising base.  Even though every month more people abandoned them for an on-line format.  Not one major newspaper headmast made a strong commitment to go on-line.  None tried to be #1 in news dissemination via the web, or take a leadership role in associating ad placement with news and entertainment. 

They could have addressed the market shift, and changed their approach and delivery.  But they did not.

Money manager Mr. Henry has done a good job of turning the Boston Red Sox into a profitable institution.  But there is nothing in common between the Red Sox, for which you can grow the fan base, bring people to the ballpark and sell viewing rights, and The Boston Globe.  The former is unique.  The latter is obsolete.  Yes, the New York Times company paid $1.1B for the Globe in 1993, but that doesn't mean it's worth $70M today.  Given its revenue and cost structure, as a newspaper it is probably worth nothing.

But, we all still want news.  Nobody wants the information infrastructure collecting what we need to know to crumble.  Nobody wants journalism to die.  But it is unreasonable to expect business people to keep investing in newspapers just to fulfill a public good.  Even Mr. Zell abandoned that idea. 

Thus, we need the news, as a service, to be transformed into a new, profitable enterprise.  Somehow these organizations have to abandon the old ways of doing things, including print and paper distribution, and transform to meet modern needs.  The 6 year revenue slide at Washington Post has to stop, and instead of thinking about survival company leadership needs to focus on how to thrive with a new, profitable business model.

And that's why we all should be glad Jeff Bezos bought The Washington Post.  As head of Amazon.com  The Harvard Business Review ranked him the second best performing CEO of the last decadeCNNMoney.com named him Business Person of the Year 2012, and called him "the ultimate disruptor."

By not doing what everyone else did, breaking all the rules of traditional retail, Mr. Bezos built Amazon.com into a $61B general merchandise retailer in 20 years.  When publishers refused to create electronic books he led Amazon into competing with its suppliers by becoming a publisher.  When Microsoft wouldn't produce an e-reader, retailer and publisher Amazon.com jumped into the intensely competitive world of personal electroncs creating and launching Kindle.  And then upped the stakes against competitors by enhancing that into Kindle Fire.  And when traditional IT suppliers like HP and Dell were slow to help small (or any) business move toward cloud computing Amazon launched its own network services to help the market shift.

Mr. Bezos' language regarding his intentions post acquisition are quite telling, "change… is essential… with or without new ownership….need to invent…need to experiment." 

And that is exactly what the news industry needs today.  Today's leaders are HuffingtonPost.com, Marketwatch.com and other web sites with wildly different business models than traditional paper media.  WaPo success will require transforming a dying company, tied to an old success formula, into a trend-aligned organization that give people what they want, when they want it, at a profit.

And it's hard to think of someone better experienced, or skilled, than Jeff Bezos to provide that kind of leadership.  With just a little imagination we can imagine some rapid moves:

  • distribution of all content via Kindle style eReaders, rather than print.  Along with dramatically increasing the cost of paper subscriptions and daily paper delivery
  • Instead of a "one size fits all" general purpose daily paper, packaging news into more fitting targeted products.  Sports stories on sports sites.  Business stories on business sites.  Deeper, longer stories into ebooks available for $.99 purchase.  And repackaging of stories that cover longer time spans into electronic short-books for purchase.
  • Packaging content into Facebook locations for targeted readers.  Tying ads into these social media sites, and promoting ad sales for small, local businesses to the Facebook sites.
  • Or creating an ala carte approach to buying various news and entertainment in an iTunes or Netflix style environment (or on those sites)
  • Robustly attracting readers via connecting content with social media, including Twitter, to meet modern needs for immediacy, headline knowledge and links to deeper stories — with sales of ads onto social media
  • Tying electronic coupons, and buy-it-now capabilities to ads linked to appropriate content
  • Retargeting advertising sales from general purpose to targeted delivery at specific readers, with robust packages of on-line coupons, links to specials and fast, impulse purchase capability
  • Increased use of bloggers and ad hoc writers to supplement staff in order to offer opinions and insights quickly, but at lower cost.
  • Changes in compensation linked to page views and readership, just as revenue is linked to same.

We've watched a raft of newspapers and magazines disappear. This has not been a failure of journalism, but rather a failure of business leaders to address shifting markets and transform old organizations to meet modern needs.  It's not a quality problem, but rather a failure of strategy to adapt to shifting markets.  And that's a lesson every business leaders needs to note, because today, as I wrote in April, 2012, every company has to behave like a tech company!

Doing more of the same, cutting costs and rich egos won't fix a newspaper.  Only the willingness to experiment and find new solutions which transform these organizations into something very different, well beyond print, will work.  Let's hope Mr. Bezos brings the same zest for addressing these challenges and aligning with market needs he brought to Amazon.  To a large extent, the future of news and "freedom of the press" may well depend upon it.

 

Journalism 2020 Revisited – Amazon, Apple, NewsCorp, Newspapers, Books


Things are tough for the printed word these days.  Not for writing, or demand for information.  That is doing great – with more volume than ever!  But the issue is “printed” material.  Clearly, the format is changing.  But are business leaders changing with it?

The Los Angeles Times reported “Amazon.com Says It’s Selling 80% More Downloaded Books Than Hardcovers.”  This is a big switch.  Clearly Kindles are making a big difference as people are buying a lot less paper, and reading a lot more bits.  Do you remember when your colleagues all said “I want a book, I don’t want to read looking at a screen?”  Do you remember when businesspeople actually printed their emails?  Clearly a sentiment gone by the wayside. 

Accuracy in Media reported “U.S. Newspaper Circulation Dropped 30% Since ’07.” And it’s a global phenomenon, with the U.K. down 25%, Greece 20%, Italy 18% and Canada 17%. Fully 2/3 of major countries are seeing newspaper demand decline.  No wonder Tribune Corporation, publisher of The Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times and Baltimore Sun, as well as others, is having such a hard time emerging from bankruptcy.  Every month this looks more like the buggy whip business.  Can you really expect the company to survive?

Amidst this backdrop, magazines have a dire future.  I can remember when browsing magazines was the norm, and trade magazines arrived in my inbox daily.  Often 60 or 100 page affairs.  No longer.  Magazines have disappeared like rain in the Sahara.  Their savior is supposedly to go digital, but according to TwistedImage.com magazine leaders are at a loss how to proceed.  In “The Media Disruption Within” Mitch Joel describes how a panel of magazine publishers are approaching the industry change mostly with despair that the internet is here – and no concerted effort to define a new model.  Lock-in was prevalent as they kept hoping for a return to the good old days for print publishers, which we know is never going to happen.

So today the New York Post reported “Mag Publishers, Apple in Subscription App Scrap.”  Most of us can acquire newspapers for an iPad issue by issue – but subscriptions aren’t possible.  The magazine fears it will be the big loser – and rightfully so.  If Apple controls the subscription and delivery, why couldn’t it repackage?  Where would Apple stop, and what value would the magazine actually deliver?  Since iTunes changed music buying, how many people buy albums?  It would require the editors and publishers be really sharp to know their market – something most gave up a long time ago when they turned to focusing on narrow content for their “core product” and trying to maintain their “core competency.”  Neither of which are very “core” any more. 

We all want news that’s exactly what we want, and we’ll simply go to Google to get it.  Who published it isn’t nearly as important to readers any more.  Nor is the packaging.  Pretty soon Amazon via Kindle, Apple via iPad, and we can expect a Google tablet to do the same, can start packaging up the chapters of various books for readers giving them just what they want.  And with that they can link off to source articles from newspapers and magazine archives – or to current events.  The role of publisher will get a lot less clear, as writers and editors can go directly to the electronic distributor with content.

Into this fray is an interesting new approach reported by CNBC.com, “Rupert Murdoch’s New Digital Game Changer?”  The claim is that News Corp. is preparing an all-new interactive product designed just for on-line and mobile users.  It wouldn’t be a re-treaded newspaper.  Text, photo and video designed just for the medium.  Now that would be the right way to go about preparing for 2020.  Unfortunately, the way News Corp. handled MySpace.com doesn’t give us a lot of comfort this will be a truly White Space project.  But if it is, it might just be the start of toward the product which will be journalism in 2020.

If you’re in publishing you have no choice but to get White Space going.  The intermediaries – from the tech companies to new-age publishers like HuffingtonPost.com – are moving forward.  The business as it used to be is gone.  But the demand for news – for content – is bigger than ever.  It will require a new business model.  A new Success Formula. And this is clearly a case of change or die.  The world will never again be as it previously was.

Even if you don’t think of yourself as a publisher – you probably are.  Do you put out customer literature – like user or repair manuals?  Do you put out sales literature? Do you communicate with investors or industry analysts?  If so, how do you “publish” your material?  Paper?  Packaged pdf?  In today’s world, an advantage can be created by moving quickly to what’s new. 

Today there are a plethora of luxury automobiles on the market.  These beautifully high tech luxury machines have manuals that can run 500+ pages!   It is impossible to figure out how anything works by trying the manual!  Why don’t manufacturers of $60,000+ cars have a Kindle (or iPad) built into the console?  Those cost less than a set of brake pads today, they can be updated automatically, and are interactive. 

Are you thinking about how you could use a $100 device to make life easier for your customers and supply chain partners?  Or are you printing?  If you’re printing, what’s your budget?  How much would you save if your salespeople, customers, etc. were given a Kindle?  Or iPad?  Can you afford not to be thinking differently about your future?

Moving to new markets – Seattle Post Intelligencer

Today the Seattle Post Intelligencer printed its last newspaper.  "Seattle Paper Shifts Entirely to the Web," reports The New York Times.  There was no buyer for the paper, so Hearst Corp. shut down the print edition. In the process it laid off 145 of its 165 news staff.  This leaves the Seattle Times alone printing in the market, but it is struggling financially.  As people lament the closing, is this a good or a bad day?

The on-line paper already achieves about 4million hits/month, and it hasn't really started trying to be competitive on-line.  The site (www.seattlepi.com) already has 150 bloggers – so you could make a case it has more reporters than were let go from the old newsroom.  And it has made agreements to pick up content from Hearst Magazines, xconomy and TV Guide amongst other partners.  In an article "Executive Producer Michelle Nicolosi talks about the new SeattlePI.com" at the site she says "We're going to focus on what readers are telling us they want and on what makes SeattlePI.com essential and unique….My staff and I are thrilled to have the chance to prove that an online-only news operation can make money and do a great job serving readers….Our strategy moving forward is to experiment a lot and fail fast…We have to reinvent how things are done on many fronts…We have a 'survival of the fittest' attitude about content that isn't working."  Sounds a lot like White Space to me — White Space no longer encumbered by trying to keep open a printed edition that wasn't meeting customer needs at a profit.

You could make a case that this is a GREAT DAY for the organization, and its marketplace.  Firstly, this organization is taking seriously the task of building a profitable on-line newspaper.  Unlike most on-line news organizations that are backwater extensions of a print paper which doesn't care about the on-line market, this is an organization that must "sink or swim" – with leaders that are establishing new metrics and show every indication of using them to run a viable business.  When you enter White Space, you prefer to be an early participant, so you gain understanding fast.  Like the on-line www.HuffingtonPost.com which is blowing the doors off readership with its national coverage of news and politics (and mentioned frequently by the editor – another good sign, learning from the competition). 

As an early participant, with a real commitment to succeed (no transfers back to the old organization here), it's not just about "the product" but the business model as well.  Not discussed was how many ad salespeople were being kept on-board to push ad sales for the new organiztion.  Hopefully as much energy will be placed on learning how to craft ad products that customers want and will pay for as is being placed in creating compelling content that attracts readers.  We can't expect SeattlePI.com to rely on Google to sell all their ads – and I doubt the editors do either.  Building a new Success Formula requires being open to revenue generation as well as production and delivery (don't forget that figuring out how to sell "clicks" was as successful to Xerox as inventing the copier.)  My worry right now is that as good as the home page is – and it's good – I didn't see a button at the top, or bottom, or anywhere to "place an ad" – something I  hope they address quickly.  But for now I'll let it slide in the hopes that compulsive, obsessive competitiveness caused this slip (for if it did, that demonstrates the commitment to White Space that makes it work.)

What we all know is that the old days of newspapers is gone, and won't come back. (Hear that Sam Zell and folks at The Chicago Tribune and Los Angeles Times?)  iPhones and Kindles are just the start of making newspapers completely obsolete – even for those who don't fancy news via computer.  The faster organizations get out there to build a new Success Formula, the more likely they'll find a way to survive.  And the faster they jettison old notions about what makes for "good news" and "good ad sales" the faster they'll get to that model.  Those who are the first to get out there and learn have the greatest odds of becoming a winner, because they have the longest time to experiment, fail and succeed.

Here's wishing all the best to the re-energized www.SeattlePI.com.  May the editors, reporters, bloggers and salespeople give us new insight to the future of news in the ubiquitously connected world.