Innovation Matters; or Why You Care More About Apple than Kraft

Apple is launching the iPhone 5, and the market cap is hitting record highs.  No wonder, what with pre-orders on the Apple site selling out in an hour, and over 2 million units being presold in the first 24 hours after announcement. 

We care a lot about Apple, largely because the company has made us all so productive.  Instead of chained to PCs with their weight and processor-centric architecture (not to mention problems crashing and corrupting files) while simultaneously carrying limited function cell phones, we all now feel easily interconnected 24×7 from lightweight, always-on smart devices.  We feel more productive as we access our work colleagues, work tools, social media or favorite internet sites with ease.  We are entertained by music, videos and games at our leisure.  And we enjoy the benefits of rapid problem solving – everything from navigation to time management and enterprise demands – with easy to use apps utilizing cloud-based data.

In short, what was a tired, nearly bankrupt Macintosh company has become the leading marketer of innovation that makes our lives remarkably better.  So we care – a lot – about the products Apple offers, how it sells them and how much they cost.  We want to know how we can apply them to solve even more problems for ourselves, colleagues, customers and suppliers.

Amidst all this hoopla, as you figure out how fast you can buy an iPhone 5 and what to do with your older phone, you very likely forgot that Kraft will be splitting itself into 2 parts in about 2 weeks (October 1).  And, most likely, you don't really care. 

And you can't imagine why I would even compare Kraft with Apple.

Kraft was once an innovation leader.  Velveeta, a much maligned product today, gave Americans a fast, easy solution to cheese sauces that were difficult to make.  Instant Mac & Cheese was a meal-in-a-box for people on the run, and at a low budget.  Cheeze Whiz offered a ready-to-eat spread for canape's.  Individually wrapped American cheese slices solved the problem of sticky product for homemakers putting together lunch sandwiches for school children.  Miracle Whip added spice to boring sandwiches.  Philadelphia brand cream cheese was a tasty, less fattening alternative to butter while also a great product for sauces. 

But, the world changed and these innovations have grown a lot less interesting.  Frozen food replaced homemade sauces and boxed solutions.  Simultaneously, cooking skills improved.  Better options for appetizers emerged than stuffed celery or something on a cracker.  School lunches changed, and sandwich alternatives flourished.  Across Kraft's product lines, demand changed as new technologies were developed that better fit customers' needs leading to revenue stagnation, margin erosion and an increasing irrelevancy of Kraft in the marketplace – despite its enormous size.

Apple turned itself around by focusing on innovation, becoming the most valuable American publicly traded company.  Kraft eschewed innovation for cost cutting, doing more of the same trying to defend its "core," leaving investors with virtually no returns.  Meanwhile thousands of Kraft employees have lost their jobs, even though revenues per employee at Kraft are 1/6th those at Apple.   And supplier margins are a never-ending cycle of forced reductions as Kraft tries to capture their margin for itself.

AAPL v KFT 9-2012
Chart Source:  Yahoo Finance 18 September, 2012

Apple's value went up because it's revenues went up.  In 2007 Apple had #24B in revenues, while Kraft was 150% bigger at $37B.  Ending 2011 Apple's revenues, all from organic growth, were up 4x (400%) at $108B.  But Kraft's 2011 revenues were only $54B, including roughly $10B of purchased revenues from its Cadbury acquisition, meaning comparative Kraft revenues were $44B; a growth of (ho-hum) 3.5%/year. 

Lacking innovation Kraft could not grow the topline, and simply could not grow its value.  And paying a premium price for someone else's revenues has led to…. splitting the company in 2 in only 2 years, mystifying everyone as to what sort of strategy the company ever had to grow!

But Kraft's new CEO is not deterred.  In an Ad Age interview he promised to ramp up advertising while slashing more jobs to cut costs.  As if somehow advertising Velveeta, Miracle Whip, Philadelphia and Mac & Cheese will reverse 30 years of market trends toward different products which better serve customer needs!

Apple spends nearly nothing on advertising.  But it does spend on innovation.  Innovation adds value.  Advertising aging products that solve no new needs does not.

Unfortunately for employees, suppliers and shareholders we can expect Kraft to end up just like Hostess Brands, owner of Wonder Bread and Twinkies, which recently filed bankruptcy due to 40 years of sticking to its core business as the market shifted.  Industry leaders know this, as they announced this week they are using Kraft's split to remove the company from the Dow Jones Industrial Average

Companies that innovate change markets and reap the rewards.  By delivering on trends they excite customers who flock to their solutions. Companies that focus on defending and extending their past, especially in times of market shifts, end up failing. Failure may not happen overnight, but it is inevitable. 

Waiting for the economy? That won’t work.

Every day it seems someone tells me they "are looking forward to an improved economy."  When I ask "Why?" they give me a horrified look like I must be stupid.  "Because I want my business to improve" is the most frequent answer.  To which I ask "What makes you think an improved economy will help you?"

This recession/depression is the result of several market shifts.  What people/businesses want, and how they want it, has changed.  They no longer are willing to part for hard earned (and often saved) dollars for the same solutions they once purchased.  They want advances in technology, manufacturing processes, communications and all aspects of business to give them different solutions.  Until that comes along, they are willing to put money in the bank and simply wait.

Take for example restaurants.  Many owners and operators are complaining business was horrid in 2009, and still far from the way it was years ago.  And regularly we hear it is due to "the recession.  People fear they'll lose their jobs, so they don't eat out as often."  Nicely said.  Sounds logical. Makes for a convenient excuse for lousy results. 

Only it's wrong.

In "Dinner out Declines:  Economy Not Sole Factor" MediaPost.com does a great overview of the fact that dining out started declining in 2001, and has steadily been on a downward trend.  Across all age groups, eating out is simply less interesting – at least at current prices.  When the recession came along, it simply accelerated an existing trend.  Increasingly, people were less satisfied with cookie-cutter, similar establishments that had similar food (almost all of which was prepared somewhere else and merely heated and combined in the restaurant) and exorbitant drink prices.  For years restaurant prices had outpaced inflation, and simultaneously family changes – along with the growth of better prepared foods at grocers and specialty markets – was enticing people to eat at home.

This is true across almost all industries.  A revived economy will not increase demand for land-line phone service.  Nor for large V-8 American autos costing $60,000.  Nor for newspapers, or magazines – or even books most likely. Or for oversized homes that cost too much to heat and cool.   In fact, it was the trend away from these products which caused the recession.  People simply had all of these things they wanted, so they stopped buying.  Fearful of economic change, they simply accelerated a trend brought on by shifts in technology and underlying ways of doing things.  When we once again talk about better economic growth in America it will not drive people to these purchases.  Rather, people will be buying different things.

For the recession to go away requires a change in inputs.  Providers have to start giving buyers what they want.  They have to understand market needs, and give solutions which entice people to part with their money.  Waiting for "the economy" will make no difference.  Government stimulus can go on forever, but it won't create growth.  It can't.  Only new products and services that fulfill needs create growth.  That will cause spending (demand), which generates the requirement for supply.

There are companies that had a great 2009. Google, Apple and Amazon are popular names.  Why?  Not just because they are somehow "tech" or "internet" companies.  2009 saw the demise of Sun Microsystems and Silicon Graphics, for example.   The difference is these companies are studying the market, looking to the future and introducing new products and services which meet market needs.  Because of this, they are growing.  They are doing their part to revitalize the economy.  Not with stimulus, but with products that excite people to part with their cash.

Those who are waiting on the economy to improve are destined to find a rough road.  An improving economy will be full of new competitors with new solutions who did not wait.  To be a winner businesses today must be bringing forward new products and services that meet today's needs – not yesterday's.  And if we start getting winners then we will climb out of this economic foxhole.