Tesla is Smarter Than Other Auto Companies

Tesla is Smarter Than Other Auto Companies

Car dealers are idiots” said my friend as she sat down for a cocktail.

It was evening, and this Vice President of a large health care equipment company was meeting me to brainstorm some business ideas. I asked her how her day went, when she gave the response above. She then proceeded to tell me she wanted to trade in her Lexus for a new, small SUV. She had gone to the BMW dealer, and after being studiously ignored for 30 minutes she asked “do the salespeople at this dealership talk to customers?” Whereupon the salespeople fell all over themselves making really stupid excuses like “we thought you were waiting for your husband,” and “we felt you would be more comfortable when your husband arrived.”

My friend is not married. And she certainly doesn’t need a man’s help to buy a car.

She spent the next hour using her iPhone to think up every imaginable bad thing she could say about this dealer over Twitter and Facebook using various interesting hashtags and @ references.

Truthfully, almost nobody likes going to an auto dealership. Everyone can share stories about how they were talked down to by a salesperson in the showroom, treated like they were ignorant, bullied by salespeople and a slow selling process, overcharged compared to competitors for service, forced into unwanted service purchases under threat of losing warranty coverage – and a slew of other objectionable interactions. Most Americans think the act of negotiating the purchase of a new car is loathsome – and far worse than the proverbial trip to a dentist.  It’s no wonder auto salespeople regularly top the list of least trusted occupations!

When internet commerce emerged in the 1990s, buying an auto on-line was the #1 most desired retail transaction in emerging customer surveys. And today the vast majority of Americans, especially Millennials, use the web and social media to research their purchase before ever stepping foot in the dreaded dealership.

Tesla heard, and built on this trend.  Rather than trying to find dealers for its cars, Tesla decided it would sell them directly from the manufacturer. Which created an uproar amongst dealers who have long had a cushy “almost no way to lose money” business, due to a raft of legal protections created to support them after the great DuPont-General Motors anti-trust case.

When New Jersey regulators decided in March they would ban Tesla’s factory-direct dealerships, the company’s CEO, Elon Musk, went after Governor Christie for supporting a system that favors the few (dealers) over the customer.  He has threatened to use the federal courts to overturn the state laws in favor of consumer advocacy.

It would be easy to ignore Tesla’s position, except it is not alone in recognizing the trend.  TrueCar is an on-line auto shopping website which received $30M from Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen’s venture fund.  After many state legal challenges TrueCar now claims to have figured out how to let people buy on-line with dealer delivery, and last week filed papers to go public.  While this doesn’t eliminate dealers, it does largely take them out of the car-buying equation.  Call it a work-around for now that appeases customers and lawyers, even if it doesn’t actually meet consumer desires for a direct relationship with the manufacturer.

Apple’s direct-to-consumer retail stores were key to saving the company

Distribution is always a tricky question for any consumer good. Apple wanted to make sure its products were positioned correctly, and priced correctly. As Apple re-emerged from near bankruptcy with new music products in the early 2000’s Apple feared electronic retailers would discount the product, be unable to feature Apple’s advantages, and hurt the brand which was in the process of rebuilding.  So it opened its own stores, staffed by “geniuses” to help customers understand the brand positioning and the products’ advantages. Those stores are largely considered to have been a turning point in helping consumers move from a world of Microsoft-based laptops, Sony music products and Blackberry mobile devices to new iDevices and resurging Macintosh popularity – and sales levels.

Attacking regulations sounds – and is – a daunting task. But, when regulations support a minority of people outside the public good there is reason to expect change.  American’s wanted a more pristine society, so in 1920 the 18th Amendment was passed prohibiting alcohol. However, after a decade in which rampant crime developed to support illegal alcohol production Americans passed the 21st Amendment in 1933 to repeal prohibition. What seemed like a good idea at first turned out to have more negatives than positives.

Auto dealer regulations hurt competition, and consumers

Today Americans do not need a protected group of dealers to save them from big, bad auto companies. To the contrary, forced distribution via protected dealers inhibits competition because it keeps new competitors from entering the U.S. market. Small production manufacturers, and large ones in countries like India, are effectively blocked from reaching American customers because they lack a dealer base and existing dealers are uninterested in taking the risks inherent in taking these new products to market. Likewise, starting up an auto company is fraught with distribution risks in the USA, leaving Tesla the only company to achieve any success since the dealer protection laws were passed decades ago.

And that’s why Tesla has a very good chance of succeeding. The trends all support Americans wanting to buy directly from manufacturers. At the very least this would force dealers to justify their existence, and profits, if they want to stay in business. But, better yet, it would create greater competition – as happened in the case of Apple’s re-emergence and impact on personal technology for entertainment and productivity.

Litigating to fight a trend might work for a while. Usually those in such a position are large political contributors, and use both the political process as well as legal precedent to protect their unjustified profits. NADA (National Automobile Dealers Association) is a substantial organization with very large PAC money to use across Washington. The Association can coordinate election contributions at national and state levels, as well as funding for judge elections and contributions for legal defense.

But, trends inevitably win out. Today Millennials are true on-line shoppers.  They have no patience for traditional auto dealer shenanigans. After watching their parents, and grandparents, struggle for fairness with dealers they are eager for a change. As are almost all the auto buyers out there. And they are supported by consumer advocates long used to edgy tactics of auto dealers well known for skirting ethics and morality when dealing with customers. Those seeking change just need someone positioned to lead the legal effort.

Tesla wins because it uses trends to be a game changer

Tesla has shown it is well attuned to trends and what customers want. When other auto companies eschewed Tesla’s first entry as a 2-passenger sports car using laptop batteries, Tesla proceeded to sell out the product at a price much higher competitive gas-powered cars. When other auto companies thought a $70,000 electric sedan would never appeal to American buyers, Tesla again showed it understood the market best and sold out production. When industry pundits, and traditional auto company execs, said it was impossible to build a charging grid to support users driving up the coast, or cross-country, Tesla built the grid and demonstrated its functionality.

Now Tesla is the right company, in the right place, to change not only the autos Americans drive, but how Americans buy them. It’s rarely smart to refuse a trend, and almost always smart to support it. Tesla looks to be positioning itself as much smarter than older, larger auto companies once again.

Be Really Glad Bezos Bought The Washington Post

Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon worth $25.2B just paid $250 million to become sole owner of The Washington Post

Some think the recent rash of of billionaires buying newspapers is simply rich folks buying themselves trophies.  Probably true in some instances – and that benefits no one.  Just look at how Sam Zell ruined The Chicago Tribune and Los Angeles Times.  Or Rupert Murdoch's less than stellar performance owning The Wall Street Journal.  It's hard to be excited about a financially astute commodities manager, like John Henry, buying The Boston Globe – as it has all the earmarks of someone simply jumping in where angels fear to tread.

These companies lost their way long ago.  For decades they defined themselves as newspaper companies.  They linked everything about what they did to printing a daily paper.  The service they provided, which was a mix of hard news and entertainment reporting, was lost in the productization of that service into a print deliverable. 

So when people started to look for news and entertainment on-line, these companies chose to ignore the trend.  They continued to believe that readers would always want the product – the paper – rather than the service. And they allowed themselves to remain fixated on old processes and outdated business models long after the market shifted.

The leaders ignored the fact that advertisers could obtain much more directed placement at targets, at far lower cost, on-line than through the broad-based, general ads placed in newspapers.  And that consumers could get a much faster, and cheaper, sale via eBay, CraigsList or Vehix.com than via overpriced classified ads. 

Newspaper leadership kept trying to defend their "core" business of collecting news for daily publication in a paper format.  They kept trying to defend their local advertising base.  Even though every month more people abandoned them for an on-line format.  Not one major newspaper headmast made a strong commitment to go on-line.  None tried to be #1 in news dissemination via the web, or take a leadership role in associating ad placement with news and entertainment. 

They could have addressed the market shift, and changed their approach and delivery.  But they did not.

Money manager Mr. Henry has done a good job of turning the Boston Red Sox into a profitable institution.  But there is nothing in common between the Red Sox, for which you can grow the fan base, bring people to the ballpark and sell viewing rights, and The Boston Globe.  The former is unique.  The latter is obsolete.  Yes, the New York Times company paid $1.1B for the Globe in 1993, but that doesn't mean it's worth $70M today.  Given its revenue and cost structure, as a newspaper it is probably worth nothing.

But, we all still want news.  Nobody wants the information infrastructure collecting what we need to know to crumble.  Nobody wants journalism to die.  But it is unreasonable to expect business people to keep investing in newspapers just to fulfill a public good.  Even Mr. Zell abandoned that idea. 

Thus, we need the news, as a service, to be transformed into a new, profitable enterprise.  Somehow these organizations have to abandon the old ways of doing things, including print and paper distribution, and transform to meet modern needs.  The 6 year revenue slide at Washington Post has to stop, and instead of thinking about survival company leadership needs to focus on how to thrive with a new, profitable business model.

And that's why we all should be glad Jeff Bezos bought The Washington Post.  As head of Amazon.com  The Harvard Business Review ranked him the second best performing CEO of the last decadeCNNMoney.com named him Business Person of the Year 2012, and called him "the ultimate disruptor."

By not doing what everyone else did, breaking all the rules of traditional retail, Mr. Bezos built Amazon.com into a $61B general merchandise retailer in 20 years.  When publishers refused to create electronic books he led Amazon into competing with its suppliers by becoming a publisher.  When Microsoft wouldn't produce an e-reader, retailer and publisher Amazon.com jumped into the intensely competitive world of personal electroncs creating and launching Kindle.  And then upped the stakes against competitors by enhancing that into Kindle Fire.  And when traditional IT suppliers like HP and Dell were slow to help small (or any) business move toward cloud computing Amazon launched its own network services to help the market shift.

Mr. Bezos' language regarding his intentions post acquisition are quite telling, "change… is essential… with or without new ownership….need to invent…need to experiment." 

And that is exactly what the news industry needs today.  Today's leaders are HuffingtonPost.com, Marketwatch.com and other web sites with wildly different business models than traditional paper media.  WaPo success will require transforming a dying company, tied to an old success formula, into a trend-aligned organization that give people what they want, when they want it, at a profit.

And it's hard to think of someone better experienced, or skilled, than Jeff Bezos to provide that kind of leadership.  With just a little imagination we can imagine some rapid moves:

  • distribution of all content via Kindle style eReaders, rather than print.  Along with dramatically increasing the cost of paper subscriptions and daily paper delivery
  • Instead of a "one size fits all" general purpose daily paper, packaging news into more fitting targeted products.  Sports stories on sports sites.  Business stories on business sites.  Deeper, longer stories into ebooks available for $.99 purchase.  And repackaging of stories that cover longer time spans into electronic short-books for purchase.
  • Packaging content into Facebook locations for targeted readers.  Tying ads into these social media sites, and promoting ad sales for small, local businesses to the Facebook sites.
  • Or creating an ala carte approach to buying various news and entertainment in an iTunes or Netflix style environment (or on those sites)
  • Robustly attracting readers via connecting content with social media, including Twitter, to meet modern needs for immediacy, headline knowledge and links to deeper stories — with sales of ads onto social media
  • Tying electronic coupons, and buy-it-now capabilities to ads linked to appropriate content
  • Retargeting advertising sales from general purpose to targeted delivery at specific readers, with robust packages of on-line coupons, links to specials and fast, impulse purchase capability
  • Increased use of bloggers and ad hoc writers to supplement staff in order to offer opinions and insights quickly, but at lower cost.
  • Changes in compensation linked to page views and readership, just as revenue is linked to same.

We've watched a raft of newspapers and magazines disappear. This has not been a failure of journalism, but rather a failure of business leaders to address shifting markets and transform old organizations to meet modern needs.  It's not a quality problem, but rather a failure of strategy to adapt to shifting markets.  And that's a lesson every business leaders needs to note, because today, as I wrote in April, 2012, every company has to behave like a tech company!

Doing more of the same, cutting costs and rich egos won't fix a newspaper.  Only the willingness to experiment and find new solutions which transform these organizations into something very different, well beyond print, will work.  Let's hope Mr. Bezos brings the same zest for addressing these challenges and aligning with market needs he brought to Amazon.  To a large extent, the future of news and "freedom of the press" may well depend upon it.

 

How Samsung Changed the Game on Apple

The iPad is now 3 years old.  Hard to believe we've only had tablets such a short time, given how common they have become.  It's easy to forget that when launched almost all analysts thought the iPad was a toy that would be lucky to sell a few million units.  Apple blew away that prediction in just a few months, as people demonstrated their lust for mobility.  To date the iPad has sold 121million units – with an ongoing sales rate of nearly 20million per quarter.

Following very successful launches of the iPod (which transformed music from CDs to MP3) and iPhone (which turned everyone into smartphone users,) the iPad's transformation of personal technology made Apple look like an impenetrable juggernaut – practically untouchable by any competitor!  The stock soared from $200/share to over $700/share, and Apple became the most valuable publicly traded company on any American exchange!

But things look very different now.  Despite huge ongoing sales (iPad sales exceed Windows sales,) and a phenomenal $30B cash hoard ($100B if you include receivables) Apple's value has declined by 40%! 

In the tech world, people tend to think competition is all about the product.  Feature and functionality comparisons abound.  And by that metric, no one has impacted Apple.  After 3 years in development, Microsoft's much anticipated Surface has been a bust – selling only about 1.5million units in the first 6 months.  Nobody has created a product capable of outright dethroning the i product series.  Quite simply, there have been no "game changer" products that dramatically outperform Apple's.

But, any professor of introductory marketing will tell you that there are 4 P's in marketing: Product, Price, Place and Promotion.  And understanding that simple lesson was the basis for the successful onslaught Samsung has waged upon Apple in 2012 and 2013. 

Samsung did not change the game with technology or product.  It has used the same Android starting point as most competitors for phones and tablets.  It's products are comparable to Apple's – but not dramatically superior.  And while they are cheaper, in most instances that has not been the reason people switched.  Instead, Samsung changed the game by focusing on distribution and advertising!

 
Ad spend Apple-Samsung
Chart courtesy Jay Yarrow, Business Insider 4/2/13 and Horace Dediu, Asymco

The remarkable insight from this chart is that Samsung is spending almost 4.5 times Apple – and $1B more than perennial consumer goods brand leader Coca-Cola on advertising! Simultaneously, Samsung has set up kiosks and stores in malls and retail locations all over America.

Can you imagine having the following conversation in your company in 2010?:

"As Vice President of Marketing I propose we take on the market leader not by having a superior product.  We will change the game from features and function comparisons to availability and awareness.  I intend to spend more than anyone in our industry on advertising – even more than Coke.  And I will open so many information and sales locations that our products will be as available as Coke.  We'll be everywhere.  Our products may not be better, but they will be everywhere and everyone will know about them."

Samsung found Apple's Achilles heel.  As Apple's revenues rose it did not keep its marketing growing.  SG&A (Selling, General and Administrative) expense declined from 14% of revenues in 2006 to 5% in 2012; of course aiding its skyrocketing profits.  And Apple continued to sell through its fairly limited distribution of Apple stores and network providers.  Apple started to "milk" its hard won brand position, rather than intensify it.

Samsung took advantage of Apple's oversight.  Samsung maintained its SG&A budget at 15% of revenues – even growing it to 24% for a brief time in 2009, before returning to 15%.  As its revenues grew, advertising and distribution grew.  Instead of looking back at its old ad budget in dollars, and maintaining that budget, Samsung allowed the budget to grow (to a huge number!) along with revenues. 

And that's how Samsung changed the game on Apple.  Once America's untouchable brand, the Apple brand has faltered.  People now question Apple's sustainability. Some now recognize Apple is vulnerable, and think its best times are behind it.  And it's all because Samsung ignored the industry lock-in to constantly focusing on product, and instead changed the game on Apple.

Something Microsoft should have thought about – but didn't.

Of course, Apple's profits are far, far higher than Samsung's.  And Apple is still a great company, and a well regarded brand, with tremendous sales.  There are ongoing rumors of a new iOS 7 operating system, an updated format for iPads, potentially a dramatically new iPhone and even an iTV.  And Apple is not without great engineers, and a HUGE war chest which it could use on advertising and distribution to go heads up with Samsung.

But, at least for now, Samsung has demonstrated how a competitor can change the game on a market leader.  Even a leader as successful and powerful as Apple.  And Samsung's leaders deserve a lot of credit for seeing the opportunity – and seizing it!