OOPS! 5 CEOs that Should Have Already Been Fired (Cisco, GE, WalMart, Sears, Microsoft)

This has been quite the week for CEO mistakes.  First was all the hubbub about Scott Thompson, CEO of Yahoo, inflating his resume to include a computer science degree he did not actually receive.  According to Mr. Thompson someone at a recruiting firm added that degree claim in 2005, he didn't know it and he's never read his bio since.  A simple oversight, if you can believe he hasn't once read his bio in 7 years, and he didn't think it was ever important to correct someone who introduced him or mentioned it.  OOPS – the easy answer for someone making several million dollars per year, and trying to guide a very troubled company from the brink of failure. Hopefully he is more persistent about checking company facts.

But luckily for him, his errors were trumped on Thursday when Jamie Dimon, CEO of J.P.MorganChase notified the world that the bank's hedging operation messed up and lost $2B!!  OOPS!  According to Mr. Dimon this is really no big deal. Which reminded me of the apocryphal Senator Everett Dirksen statement "a billion here, a billion there and pretty soon it all adds up to real money!" 

Interesting "little" mistake from a guy who paid himself some $50M a few years ago, and benefitted greatly from the government TARP program.  He said this would be "fodder for pundits," as if we all should simply overlook losing $2B?  He also said this was "unfortunate timing."  As if there's a good time to lose $2B? 

But neither of these problems will likely result in the CEOs losing their jobs.  As obviously damaging as both mistakes are, which would naturally have caused us mere employees to instantly lose our jobs – and potentially be prosecuted – CEOs are a rare breed who are allowed wide lattitude  in their behavior.  These are "one off" events that gain a lot of attention, but the media will have forgotten within a few days, and everyone else within a few months.

By comparison, there are at least 5 CEOs that make these 2 mistakes appear pretty small.  For these 5, frequently honored for their position, control of resources and personal wealth, they are doing horrific damage to their companies, hurting investors, employees, suppliers and the communities that rely on their organizations.  They should have been fired long before this week.

#5 – John Chambers, Cisco Systems.  Mr. Chambers is the longest serving CEO on this list, having led Cisco since 1995 and championed much of its rapid growth as corporations around the world began installing networks.  Cisco's stock reached $70/share in 2001.  But since then a combination of recessions that cut corporate IT budgets and a market shift to cloud computing has left Cisco scrambling for a strategy, and growth.

Mr. Chambers appears to have been great at operating Cisco as long as he was in a growth market.  But since customers turned to cloud computing and greater use of mobile telephony networks Cisco has been unable to innovate, launch and grow new markets for cloud storage, services or applications.  Mr. Chambers has reorganized the company 3 times – but it has been much like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.  Lots of confusion, but no improvement in results.

Between 2001 and 2007 the stock lost half its value, falling to $35.  Continuing its slide, since 2007 the stock has halved again, now trading around $17.  And there is no sign of new life for Cisco – as each earnings call reinforces a company lacking a strategy in a shifting market.  If ever there was a need for replacing a stayed-in-the-job too long CEO it would be Cisco.

#4 – Jeffrey Immelt, General Electric (GE).  GE has only had 9 CEOs in its 100+ year life.  But this last one has been a doozy.  After more than a decade of rapid growth in revenue, profits and valuation under the disruptive "neutron" Jack Welch, GE stock reached $60 in 2000.  Which turns out to have been the peak, as GE's value has gone nowhere but down since Mr. Immelt took the top job.

GE was once known for entering and changing markets, unafraid to disrupt how the market performed with innovation in products, supply chain and operations.  There was no market too distant, or too locked-in for GE to not find a way to change to its advantage – and profit.  But what was the last market we saw GE develop?  What has Mr. Immelt, in his decade at the top of GE, done to keep GE as one of the world's most innovative, high growth companies?  He has steered the ship away from trouble, but it's only gone in circles as it's used up fuel. 

From that high in 2001, GE fell to a low of $8 in 2009 as the financial crisis revealed that under Mr. Immelt GE had largely transitioned from a manufacturing and products company into a financial house.  He had taken what was then the easy road to managing money, rather than managing a products and services company.  Saved from bankruptcy by a lucrative Berkshire Hathaway, GE lived on.  But it's stock is still only $19, down 2/3 from when Mr. Immelt took the CEO position. 

"Stewardship" is insufficient leadership in 2012.  Today markets shift rapidly, incur intensive global competition and require constant innovation.  Mr. Immelt has no vision to propel GE's growth, and should have been gone by 2010, rather than allowed to muddle along with middling performance.

#3 – Mike Duke, WalMart.  Mr. Duke has been CEO since 2009, but prior to that he was head of WalMart International.  We now know Mr. Duke's business unit saw no problems with bribing foreign officials to grow its business.  Just on the basis of knowing about illegal activity, not doing anything about it (and probably condoning and recommending more,) and then trying to change U.S. law to diminish the legal repurcussions, Mr. Duke should have long ago been fired. 

It's clear that internally the company and its Board new Mr. Duke was willing to do anything to try and grow WalMart, even if unethical and potentially illegal.  Recollections of Enron's Jeff Skilling, Worldcom's Bernie Ebbers and Hollinger's Conrdad Black should be in our heads.  How far do we allow leaders to go before holding them accountable?

But worse, not even bribes will save WalMart as Mr. Duke follows a worn-out strategy unfit for competition in 2012.  The entire retail market is shifting, with much lower cost on-line companies offering more selection at lower prices.  And increasingly these companies are pioneering new technologies to accelerate on-line shopping with easy to use mobile devices, and new apps that make shopping, paying and tracking deliveries easier all the time.  But WalMart has largely eschewed the on-line world as its CEO has doggedly sticks with WalMart doing more of the same.  That pursuit has limited WalMart's growth, and margins, while the company files further behind competitively. 

Unfortunately, WalMart peaked at about $70 in 2000, and has been flat ever since.  Investors have gained nothing from this strategy, while employees often work for wages that leave them on the poverty line and without benefits.  Scandals across all management layers are embarrassing. Communities find Walmart a mixed bag, initially lowering prices on some goods, but inevitably gutting the local retailers and leaving the community with no local market suppliers.  WalMart needs an entirely new strategy to remain viable – and that will not come from Mr. Duke.  He should have been gone long before the recent scandal, and surely now.

#2 Edward Lampert, Sears Holdings.  OK, Mr. Lampert is the Chairman and not the CEO – but there is no doubt who calls the shots at Sears.  And as Mr. Lampert has called the shots, nobody has gained.

Once the most critical force in retailing, since Mr. Lampert took over Sears has become wholly irrelevant.  Hoping that Mr. Lampert could make hay out of the vast real estate holdings, and once glorious brands Craftsman, Kenmore and Diehard to turn around the struggling giant, the stock initially took off rising from $30 in 2004 to $170 in 2007 as Jim Cramer of "Mad Money" fame flogged the stock over and over on his rant-a-thon show.  But when it was clear results were constantly worsening, as revenues and same-store-sales kept declining, the stock fell out of bed dropping into the $30s in 2009 and again in 2012. 

Hope springs eternal in the micro-managing Mr. Lampert.  Everyone knows of his personal fortune (#367 on Forbes list of billionaires.)  But Mr. Lampert has destroyed Sears.  The company may already be so far gone as to be unsavable.  The stock price is based upon speculation of asset sales.  Mr. Lampert had no idea, from the beginning, how to create value from Sears and he surely should have been gone many months ago as the hyped expectations demonstrably never happened.

#1 – Steve Ballmer, Microsoft.  Without a doubt, Mr. Ballmer is the worst CEO of a large publicly traded American company.  Not only has he singlehandedly steered Microsoft out of some of the fastest growing and most lucrative tech markets (mobile music, handsets and tablets) but in the process he has sacrificed the growth and profits of not only his company but "ecosystem" companies such as Dell, Hewlett Packard and even Nokia.  The reach of his bad leadership has extended far beyond Microsoft when it comes to destroying shareholder value – and jobs.

Microsoft peaked at $60/share in 2000, just as Mr. Ballmer took the reigns.  By 2002 it had fallen into the $20s, and has only rarely made it back to its current low $30s value.  And no wonder, since execution of new rollouts were constantly delayed, and ended up with products so lacking in any enhanced value that they left customers scrambling to find ways to avoid upgrades.  By Mr. Ballmer's own admission Vista had over 200 man-years too much cost, and its launch still, years late, has users avoiding upgrades.  Microsoft 7 and Office 2012 did nothing to excite tech users, in corporations or at home, as Apple took the leadership position in personal technology.

So today Microsoft, after dumping Zune, dumping its tablet, dumping Windows CE and other mobile products, is still the same company Mr. Ballmer took control over a decade ago.  Microsoft is  PC company, nothing more, as demand for PCs shifts to mobile.  Years late to market, he has bet the company on Windows 8 – as well as the future of Dell, HP, Nokia and others.  An insane bet for any CEO – and one that would have been avoided entirely had the Microsoft Board replaced Mr. Ballmer years ago with a CEO that understands the fast pace of technology shifts and would have kept Microsoft current with market trends. 

Although he's #19 on Forbes list of billionaires, Mr. Ballmer should not be allowed to take such incredible risks with investor money and employee jobs.  Best he be retired to enjoy his fortune rather than deprive investors and employees of building theirs.

There were a lot of notable CEO changes already in 2012.  Research in Motion, Best Buy and American Airlines are just three examples.  But the 5 CEOs in this column are well on the way to leading their companies into the kind of problems those 3 have already discovered.  Hopefully the Boards will start to pay closer attention, and take action before things worsen.

 

WalMart’s the Titanic, and Mexican Bribery is its Iceberg – JUMP SHIP

WalMart's been accused of bribing officials in Mexico to grow its business.  But by and large, few in America seem to care.  The stock fell only modestly from its highs of last week, and today the stock recovered from the drop off to the lows of February. 

But WalMart is going to fail.  WalMart is trying to defend and extend a horribly outdated industrial strategy.

Sam Walton opened his original five and dime stores in the rural countryside, and competed just like small retailers had done for decades.  But quickly he recognized that industrialization offered the opportunity to shift the retail market.  By applying industrial concepts like scale, automation and volume buying he could do for retailing what Ford and GM had done for auto manufacturing.  And his strategy, designed for an industrial marketplace, worked extremely well.  Like it or not, WalMart outperformed retailers still trying to compete like they had in the 1800s, and WalMart was spectacularly successful.

But today, the world has shifted again.  Only WalMart is putting all its resources into trying to defend and extend its industrial era strategy, rather than modify to compete in the information age.  Because its strategy doesn't work, the company keeps wandering into spectacular failures, and horrible leadership problems.

  • In 2005 WalMart's Vice Chairman and a corporate Vice President tried to use the company's size to wring more out of gift card and merchandise suppliers.  Both were caught and fired for fraud. 
  • In 2006 WalMart hired a new head of marketing to update the strategy, and improve the stores and merchandise.  But upon realizing her recommendations violated the existing WalMart industrial strategy the company fired her after only a few months, and went public with character besmirching allegations that she and an ad agency executive were having an affair.  Like that (even if true, which is hotly disputed) somehow mattered to the changes WalMart needed.  Changes which were abruptly terminated upon firing her.
  • In 2008 a WalMart employee became an invalid in a truck accident.  When the employee won a lawsuit related to the accident, WalMart sued the invalid employee to return $470,000 in insurance payments made by WalMart.  As if WalMart's future depended on the return of that money.
  • In a cost saving move, WalMart moved its marketing group under merchandising, in order to reduce employees and the breadth of merchandise, as well as keep the company more tightly focused on its strategy.

All 3 of these incidents show a leadership team that is so entrenched in history it will do anything – anything – to keep from evolving forward.  And sd that history developed it paved a pathway where it was only a very small step to paying bribes in order to open more stores in Mexico.  Such bribes could easily be seen as just doing "whatever it takes" to keep defending the existing business model, extending it into new markets, even though it is at the end of its life.

It has come to light that after paying the bribes, the leadership team did about everything it could to cover them up.  And that included spending millions on lobbying efforts to hopefully change the laws before anyone was caught, and possibly prosecuted.  The goal was to keep the stores open, and open more.  If that meant a little bribing went on, then it was best to not let people know.  And instead of saying what WalMart did was wrong, change the rules so it doesn't look like it was wrong. 

At WalMart right and wrong are no longer based on societal norms, they are based on whether or not it lets WalMart defend its existing business by doing more of what it wants to do.

WalMart's industrial strategy is similar to the Titanic strategy.  Build a boat so big it can't sink.  And if any retailer could be that big, then WalMart was it.  But these scandals keep showing us that the water is increasingly full of icebergs.  Each scandal points out that WalMart's strategy is harder to navigate, and is running into big problems.  Even though the damage isn't visible to most of us, it is nonetheless clear to WalMart executives that doing more of the same is leading to less good results.  WalMart is taking on water, and it has no solution.  In their effort to prop up results executives keep doing things that are less and less ethical – sometimes even illegal – and guiding people down through all levels of management and employment to do the same.

WalMart's problems aren't unions, or city zoning councils, or women's rights and fair pay organizations.  WalMart's problem is an out of date retail strategy.  Consumers have a lot of options besides going to stores that look like airplane hangers, and frequently without paying a premium.  There is wider selection, in attractive stores, with better quality and a better shopping experience.   And beyond traditional retail, consumers can now buy almost anything 24×7 on-line, frequently at a better price than WalMart – despite its enormous and automated distribution centers and stores, with tight inventory and expense control.

But WalMart is completely unable to admit its strategy is outdated, and unwilling to make any changes.  This week, amidst the scandal, WalMart rolled out its latest and greatest innovation for on-line shopping.  WalMart will now allow an on-line customer to pay with cash.  After placing an order on-line they can trot down to the store and pay the cash, then WalMart will recognize the order and ship the product.

Really.  Now, if this is targeted at customers that are so out of the modern loop that they have no credit card, no debit card, no on-line checking capability and no Paypal account tied to checking – do you think they have a PC to place an online order?  And if they did go to the local library to use a computer, why would they go pay at the store only to have the item shipped – rather than simply buy it in the store and take it home immediately? 

Clearly, once again, WalMart isn't trying to change its strategy.  This is an effort to extend the old WalMart, in a bizarre way, online.  The company keeps trying to keep people coming into the store. 

Amazingly, despite the fact that there's a 50/50 (or better) chance that the CEO and a number of WalMart execs will have to be removed from their position – and could well go to jail for Foreign Corrupt Practice Act violations – most people are unmoved.  The stock has barely flinched, and option traders see the stock remaining at 55 or higher out into September.  Nobody seems to believe that all these hits WalMart is taking really matters.

A famous Titanic line is "and the band played on."   This refers to the band continuing to play song after song, oblivious to disaster, until the ship suddenly broke, heaved up and dove into the ocean leaving only those in life boats to survive.  As the Titanic was taking on water not the captain, the officers, the crew, the passengers or those listening over the airwaves wanted to accept that the Titanic would sink.

But it did.

So how long will you hold onto WalMart shares?  WalMarts growth has been declining for a decade, and even went negative in 2009.  Same store sales have declined for 2 years.  Scandals are now commonplace.  Online retailers such as Amazon and Overstock.com are stripping out all the retail growth, leaving traditionalists in decline.  WalMart may be doing better than Sears, or Best Buy, but for how long? 

WalMart has no ability to stop the economic shift from an industrial to an information age.  It could choose to adapt, but instead its leaders have done the opposite.  The retailers now succeeding are those eschewing almost all the WalMart practices in favor of using customer information to offer what people want (out of their much wider selection) when customers want it, often at surprisingly good prices.  This is the current carrying emerging retailers to better profitability – and it is the current WalMart remains intent on fighting.  Even as its executives face prison.