The #1 Real Estate Stock To Own Is Built On Trends – Alexandria Real Estate Equities (NYSE:ARE)

The #1 Real Estate Stock To Own Is Built On Trends – Alexandria Real Estate Equities (NYSE:ARE)

Writing on trends, I frequently profile tech companies that use trends to outperform competitors. But using trends is not restricted to tech companies.

By following trends, since 1998 Alexandria Real Estate Equities has tripled the performance of the NASDAQ, quadrupled returns of the S&P 500, and quintupled the Russell 2000.  Alexandria has even outperformed technology stalwart Microsoft, and investment guru Berkshire Hathaway by 230%.

alexandria return comparisons

Although you probably never heard of it, Alexandria has trounced its real estate peers.  Over the last three years Alexandria has returned double the FTSE NAREIT Equity Office Index, and double the SNL US REIT Office Index.  Alexandria’s value has almost doubled during this time, and produced returns 2.3 times better than such well known competitors as Vornado Realty Trust and Boston Properties.

alexandria real estate three year shareholder return is

In 1983, Joel Marcus was a lawyer in the IPO market when he noticed the high value launch of biotech firms like Amgen and Genentech.  He began tracking the growth of biotechs to see what kind of opportunity might appear to serve these high growth companies.

By 1994 Marcus realized that these companies were struggling to find appropriate real estate to serve their unique needs for laboratory space, and the infrastructure these labs require.  It was a classic under-served market, and it was growing fast.

Jacobs Engineering (NYSE:JEC) was serving some of these companies’ needs, including erecting structures for them.  But Jacobs did not own any buildings or consider itself a real estate developer.  So Marcus approached Jacobs about starting a company to meet the real estate needs of this high growth biotech industry.  Marcus put up some money, Jacobs put up some money, and other friends/associates combined to raise $19 million.  There was no professionally managed money involved – and no real estate developers.

Biotech industry wordle

Focusing on the rapidly expanding biotech scene in San Diego, the newly created Alexandria bought 4 buildings.  They refocused the buildings on the unserved needs of local biotech companies and did a quick flip, breaking even on the transaction.  With just a bit of money Alexandria had proven that the market existed, the trend was real and users were under-served.

But, like any idea based on an emerging trend, growing was not easy.  Using their first transaction as “proof of concept” CEO Marcus and his team set out to raise $100 million. Quickly Paine Webber (now UBS) secured $75 million in debt financing.  But moving forward required raising $25 million in equity.

Over the next few weeks Alexandria pitched a slew of nay-sayers.  From GE Capital to CALPERS investors felt that their first deal was a “1-trick pony,” and this “niche market” was not a sustainable business.  Finally, after 29 failed pitches, the AEW pension fund, an early stage real estate investor, saw the trend and invested.

The Alexandria team realized that fast client growth meant there was no time to develop from ground up. They focused on high growth geographies for biotech, places where the trend was more pronounced, and bought 11 existing properties:

  • In Seattle they found a cancer center they could buy, improve and do a sale-leaseback
  • In San Francisco they identified a portfolio of properties in Alameda they could improve, lease to biotech companies and even suit the needs of the FDA as a tenant
  • In Maryland they identified opportunities to support the lab needs of the Army Corps of Engineers forensic research lab, and ATF testing lab for imported vodka, and a medical testing lab near Dulles – which is now leased to Quest Diagnostics

Realizing that companies needing labs tended to cluster, leadership focused on finding locations where clusters were likely to emerge.  They bought land in San Francisco, San Diego, New York and Worcester, MA. What looked like risky locations to others looked like profitable opportunities to Alexandria due to their superior trend research.

Historically pharma companies built their headquarters, and labs, in suburban locations where development was easy, and labs were welcome. Alexandria realized the new trend for emerging companies was to be near universities in urban environments, and although land was costly — and development more difficult — this was the right place to leverage the trend.

Today Alexandria is the bona fide market leader in labs and tech facilities in the USA. By seeing the trend early they bought land which is now so expensive it is practically untouchable – even for $1 billion. Their development pipeline includes Mission Bay, Kendall Square, the Manhattan borough of New York City and RTP (Research Triangle Park.) Today companies want to be where the lab is — and frequently the lab space is now owned, or being developed, by Alexandria.

alexandria real estate Campus Pointe, California
alexandria real estate equities Research Triangle Park
alexandria real estate equities new york

This didn’t happen by accident. Not at the beginning nor as Alexandria plans its future growth.  The company maintains a team of 13 researchers studying market trends in technology, and under-served real estate needs. They constantly track employers of tech/research people, competitors, historical and emerging customers — and identify prospective tech tenants who will need specialized real estate.  A few of the leading trends Alexandria follows include:

  • Urbanization — The siloed campuses set in bucolic suburbs is the past
  • Innovation externalization — Over 50% of innovation in big pharma is now outsourced. And universities are spinning out innovations faster than ever into development centers for testing and commercialization
  • Nutrition and disease management — These are emerging markets ripe with new products making their way to commercialization, and needing space to grow

Alexandria’s historical and ongoing successes relied first and foremost on using trends to understand underserved markets where needs will soon be the greatest.  This is an important lesson for all businesses. No matter what you do, what you sell, or your industry you can generate higher returns, outperform your peers, and outperform the market rewarding investors by identifying trends and investing in them.

Thanks to Joel Marcus for providing an interview to explain the history and current practices at Alexandria.

How the Game Changed Against Big Pharma – Creating New Opportunities

In 1985 there was universal agreement that investors should
be heavily in pharmaceuticals. 
Companies like Merck, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Sanofi, Roche, Glaxo and Abbott
were touted as the surest route to high portfolio returns.

Today, not so much.

Merck, once a leader in antibiotics, is laying off 20% of
its staff
.  Half in R&D; the
lifeblood of future products and profits. 
 Lilly is undertaking
another round of 2013 cost cuts.  Over
the last year about 100,000 jobs have been eliminated in big pharma companies,
which have implemented spin-outs and split-ups as well as RIFs.

What happened? In the old days pharma companies had to demonstrate
their drug worked; called product efficacy.  It did not have to be better than existing drugs.  If the drug worked, without big safety
issues, the company could launch it.

Then the business folks took over with ads, distribution,
salespeople and convention booths, convincing doctors to prescribe and us to
buy.

Big pharma companies grew into large, masterful consumer
products companies. Leadership’s view of the market changed, as it was
perceived safer to invest in Pepsi vs. Coke marketing tactics and sales warfare
to dominate a blockbuster category than product development.  Think of the marketing cost in the
Celebrex vs. Vioxx war.  Or Viagra
vs. Cialis.

But the market shifted when the FDA decided new drugs had to
be not only efficacious, they had to enhance the standard of care.  New drugs actually had to prove better in clinical trials than existing
drugs.  And often safer, too.

Hurrumph. Big pharma’s enormous scale advantages in
marketing and communication weren’t enough to assure new product success.  It actually took new products.  But that meant bigger R&D investments,
perceived as more risky, than the new consumer-oriented pharma companies could
tolerate.  Shortly pipelines
thinned, generics emerged and much lower margins ensued.

In some disease areas, this evolution was disastrous for
patients.  In antibiotics,
development of new drugs had halted. 
Doctors repeatedly prescribed (some say overprescribed) the same antibiotics.  As the bacteria evolved, infections
became more difficult to treat.

With no new antibiotics on the market the risk of death from
bacterial infections grew, leading to a national public health crisis.  According to the Centers for Disease
Control (CDC)
there are over 2 million cases of antibiotic resistant infections
annually.  Today just one type of
resistant “staph infection,” known as MRSA, kills more people in the USA than
HIV/AIDs – killing more people every year than polio did at its peak. The most
difficult to treat pathogens (called ESKAPE) are the cause of 66% of hospital
infections.

And that led to an important market shift – via regulation
(Congress?!?!)

With help from the CDC and NIH, the Infectious Diseases
Society of America
pushed through the GAIN (Generating Antibiotic Incentives
Now) Act (H.R. 2182.)  This gave
creators of new antibiotics the opportunity for new, faster pathways through
clinical trials and review in order to expedite approvals and market launch.

Additionally new product market exclusivity was lengthened an additional 5
years
(beyond the normal 5 years) to enhance investor returns.

Which allowed new game changers like Melinta Therapeutics
into the game.

Melinta (formerly Rib-X) was once considered a “biopharma science
company” with Nobel Prize-winning technology, but little hope of commercial
product launch.  But now the large
unmet need is far clearer, the playing field has few to no large company
competitors, the commercialization process has been shortened and cheapened,
and the opportunity for extended returns is greater!

Venture firm Vatera Healthcare Partners, with a history of investing in game changers (especially transformational technology,) entered the picture as lead investor.  Vatera's founder Michael Jaharis quickly hired Mary Szela, the former head of U.S.
Pharmaceuticals for Abbott (now Abbvie) as CEO.  Her resume includes leading the growth of Humira, one of
the world’s largest pharma brands with multi-billion dollar annual sales.

Under her guidance Melinta has taken fast action to work
with the FDA on a much quicker clinical trials pathway of under 18 months for
commercializing delafloxacin.  In layman’s
language, early trials of delafloxacin appeared to provide better performance
for a broad spectrum of resistant bacteria in skin infections.  And as a one-dose oral (or IV)
application it could be a simpler, high quality solution for gonorrhea.

Melinta continues adding key management resources as it
seeks “breakthrough product” designation under GAIN from the FDA for its RX-04
product
.  RX-04 is an entirely
different scientific approach to infectious disease control, based on that previously
mentioned proprietary, Nobel-winning ribosome science.   It’s a potential product category
game changer that could open the door for a pipeline of follow-on products.

Melinta is using GAIN to do something big pharma, with its
shrinking R&D and commercial staff, is unable to accomplish. Melinta is helping
redefine the rules for approving antibiotics, in order to push through new,
life-saving products.

The best news is that this game change is great for investors.
 Those companies who understand the
trend (in this case, the urgent need for new antibiotics) and how the market
has shifted (GAIN,) are putting in place teams to leverage newly invented drugs
working with the FDA.  Investment timelines and dollars are looking
far more manageable – and less risky.

Twenty-five years ago pharma looked like a big-company-only
market with little competition and huge returns for a handful of companies.  But things changed.  Now companies (like Melinta) with new
solutions have the opportunity to move much faster to prove efficacy and safety
– and save lives.  They are the
game changers, and the ones more likely to provide not only solutions to the
market but high investor returns.